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Darby O'Brien

What are some upcoming trends or fads?
Card games are on the comeback trail. Some of that is a backlash against video games. Another thing we're watching is scaled-down rock concerts where musicians are actually doing performances in houses - living-room concerts. Forty or 50 of your friends show up at a kind of potluck dinner; the artist performs and sells the CDs. Whether you're a musician or a business, the mainstream approach to getting the word out is shifting to something more grass roots. House concerts can have more impact and power than traditional advertising. The word of mouth is strong enough to create a groundswell. You can start trends with a few cool people. It was three or four people in Greenwich Village who sparked the comeback of Hush Puppies.

You've goofed, predicting playful headstones and "fun" with death, for instance.
I stand by it. One of the most successful funeral homes in America, in suburban Chicago, has a miniature golf course in the cellar. As baby boomers start to fade away, you're going to see more of this. And retirement communities are going to be a lot more fun than they are now - that forever-young attitude of the baby boom generation is going to carry on to the end.

Admit a mistake.
Oh, we predicted that Tom Arnold would come back. We said pipe smoking would come back.

What's The Gut's track record?
It's been extremely accurate; these aren't wild predictions. We predicted the current comeback of the whole preppy look. Years ago, we predicted that there would be a rejection of the highfalutin, overpriced microbrew-beer craze, and old standbys like Knickerbocker and Rheingold would become cool. We were in touch with skateboarders and snowboarders long before they were mainstream, because those fringe kids have driven 50 percent of all the new trends in this country for years. Now, these style makers are on to the next thing, what The Gut called the Lamegames. The kids who sparked snowboarding and the X Games are into goofball games like badminton, ping-pong, croquet. For years, we said the fringe kid is going to take up golf, and they have. We predicted five-hole golf; that's happening. We're predicting short-hole courses in the downtowns of major cities. These fringe kids, now in their 20s, have picked up the sport big-time. Their idea is to dress like snowboarders on the golf course. The conventional golf industry doesn't know how to connect with them.

Do you publish The Gut for fun or profit?
I started it because I was amazed how out of touch clients were. You'd present the concept for an ad campaign, and they just didn't get it. They didn't realize the world was headed in that direction. So I had this brainstorm that if I sent them a periodical that kept them posted on what was happening, it would make the creative job easier. It was geared to clients in the beginning. Then we sent it to local and regional media and to national companies. We developed a spotter system that included people in the music business in California and keen observers of what was going on in all parts of the country. We keep in touch with Michael Veeck, who owns a number of minor league baseball teams, whose father owned the White Sox. We track what people are talking about on the sidelines of ballgames, in neighborhood bars and luncheonettes. A lot of forecasting is more formal research, which we're very suspicious of. A part of our business now is consulting. We brief a client on how to connect with this "newthink," how to update their business. It began when Procter & Gamble hauled us in to help with some new soft drink ideas. We did it with Milton Bradley trying to develop a new game.

How do you stay hip in the sticks?
Being the oldest of 11, with six sisters, helped me. The decision maker today, when it comes to advertising and selling any kind of a product, for the most part is a woman. At least 80 percent of consumer buying decisions are heavily influenced by a female. Most advertisers don't know how to speak to women.

What's on the horizon?
Retroactivism. We're watching the baby boomers who shook the world in the '60s and challenged everything and also screwed up everything in the '80s with their interest in quality of possessions. They are going to finish what they started and attempt to change the world. They realize politicians can't do it. Some of it is going to be driven by successful baby boomer business operators who realize politicians can't address issues like kids with guns, gangs, and a lot of other things, so they're going to do it themselves. An example is a client, a high-end home builder who's been building $1 million to $2 million houses for years. He bought property in Connecticut where he's going to hold corporate meetings - he's going after the Aetnas, Travelers, and other major companies. He's going to have these corporate meetings fund youth support programs on this rural property. Kids are going to be able to use his ponds and lakes and be taught how to paddle a canoe and fish. It's a corporate effort supporting a nonprofit effort, and you're going to see more of that stuff. He makes a lot of money, but it's not meaningful. Give-a-damn capitalism is going to be big.