2 polls show Bush has widened lead

By Michael Carney, Reuters, 6/23/2000

ASHINGTON - Republican presidential candidate George W. Bush has widened his lead over Al Gore in two polls released yesterday, suggesting that the vice president still has not solidified his political base among traditional Democratic voters.

Bush posted a 12-point lead over Gore in a bipartisan poll of probable voters sponsored by Voter.com, an Internet news service, and an 8-point advantage in a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll of adults.

The Voter.com poll, in which Bush led by 52-40 percent, suggested that supporters of the Texas governor were more committed, more knowledgeable about the campaign, and more likely to vote in the Nov. 7 general election.

''At this point, it's the Republicans who are more energized,'' said Ed Goeas, a Republican pollster who conducted the survey in conjunction with Democrat Celinda Lake.

''We'll need a strong grass-roots campaign to win in November,'' said Lake, who also said she expected the numbers to change as Democratic supporters tune into the campaign.

A separate analysis by Gallup showed Bush has led Gore in every Gallup poll since the two were first matched against one another in May 1998. Since February the Bush lead has averaged 6 percentage points.

Polls taken in June in past presidential elections have not necessarily predicted the winner in November, although the data seemed bleak for Gore, who is in the middle of a three-week national campaign tour claiming credit for the economic successes of the past several years.

In 1968, 1980, 1988, and 1992 the leader in June lost in November. Two of those elections involved Bush's father, former President George Bush, who trailed in June 1988 but won and led in June 1992 but lost.

The Wall Street Journal poll showed Bush leading 49-41 percent in a two-way matchup. When Green Party candidate Ralph Nader and Pat Buchanan, who hopes to be the Reform Party nominee, were added, the result was: Bush 43 percent, Gore 38, Nader 7, Buchanan 4.

The Voter.com polls showed Bush leading Gore among men by 23 percentage points and among women by 1 point.