ttempts to reform the electoral system share one basic difficulty: The officials who have the power to create a new system were elected under the old one. It is only human nature for them to assume that the process that put them in office ain't broke.
This has been a formidable hurdle for campaign finance reform and will likely prove a barrier also to those seeking to change the nominating process. Despite the obvious fact that this year's nominees were chosen at least two months too early, and after a process that included only six weeks of actual voting, neither Al Gore nor George W. Bush has much incentive to open the process to more voters - and perhaps to more candidates. Indeed, if one of the two is running for reelection in 2004, he would naturally favor a system controlled by the party establishment.
Another difficulty is the question of whether Iowa and New Hampshire should continue to go first on the nomination calendar.
Gore faced a serious threat from Bill Bradley in New Hampshire but overcame it, partly by campaigning more openly, and Bradley never recovered. This was the pivotal win for Gore.
Bush, however, suffered his worst setback in New Hampshire, forcing him into a five-week scrap with John McCain in which Bush spent a lot of money, embraced his party's right wing, and sustained heavy criticism from McCain - all of which will make his task harder in the general election. Bush therefore is no friend of New Hampshire, and, if elected, can be expected to try to scuttle the early primary there. That would be a dark day for democracy.
However, Bush also suffered because Republicans in several states, such as Michigan, insisted on holding primaries before March 7. Since the national Democratic Party exercised more discipline and refused to permit such early events, the GOP contests attracted many independents and Democrats. Bush will likely try to stop that, whether or not he wins the White House. This would be healthy.
The best overall plan would retain Iowa and New Hampshire first, followed by four regional primaries a month apart. Elected officials will not implement this, however, without public prodding.
