Q. George W. Bush has been certified as the victor in Florida. Why isn't the election over?
A. Al Gore hasn't conceded yet. And the certification of Bush's victory, a crucial step that the two sides spent much of the last two weeks fighting about, has been overshadowed by the GOP appeal to the US Supreme Court, and the Democrats' announcement they will legally contest the election results in several Florida counties.The candidates' decisions to continue the legal warfare means the dispute will drag on.
Q. But doesn't it help Bush to be declared the winner?
A. Yes. For a variety of legal and political reasons, the Republican candidate now has a much clearer path to the White House than his Democratic counterpart.
Q. What happens next?
A. The Democrats have vowed to contest the Florida election in state court today. Also, the two sides will file legal briefs with the US Supreme Court tomorrow, and respond to each other's arguments in writing on Thursday. On Friday the Supreme Court will hear oral arguments.
Q. What happens in a contested election?
A. The Democrats are expected to ask a judge in Tallahassee to examine the voting procedures and tallies from Miami-Dade, Palm Beach, and other counties. The court will give the Bush campaign and the state and local election officials an opportunity to respond, and may consider evidence and hear testimony. The court could rule for either candidate; order recounts or possibly appoint a special master to investigate the allegations. The Bush campaign could file a countersuit, contesting results in other counties.
Q. What issues will the US Supreme Court rule on?
A. The Bush campaign contends that the manual recounts that have already taken place in Florida, which were upheld by the Florida Supreme Court, violated federal law and the US Constitution and should be invalidated. The US Supreme Court will consider if the Florida court infringed on the constitutional powers of the Legislature to make election laws, and if the Florida justices made an impermissible change of the rules after the election.
Q. When will the Supreme Court and Florida court issue rulings?
A. The deadline for each state to confirm its electoral votes is Dec. 12, and the Electoral College meets to cast its votes on Dec. 18. Courts recognize a special urgency in election matters, and legal analysts expect the courts to rule in early December.
Q. What will happen if the Supreme Court declares the existing manual recounts invalid?
A. Not much. Now that he has lost the certification fight, all of Gore's hopes rest on his ability to contest the election in the state courts. A state judge would have to order further recounts, with generous enough standards in Democratic counties so that Gore could find the necessary uncounted ballots to overtake Bush.
Q. What happens if the Supreme Court upholds the manual recounts?
A. Gore will have scored a moral victory, but he will still have a tough row to hoe. He will have to persuade the state courts that election officials in Miami-Dade and other counties failed to follow lawful election procedures and so should conduct further manual recounts. Those recounts would have to give him enough votes to surpass Bush. He would have to survive GOP legal challenges, which could again go as high as the US Supreme Court. At the same time, the Democrats would have to keep the Republican majority in the Florida Legislature from intervening and declaring a Bush victory.
Q. How could the Florida Legislature do that?
A. Under the US Constitution and federal election law, a state legislature can intervene to resolve a disputed election so that the state does not lose its opportunity to cast its votes in the Electoral College.
Q. What if the Legislature names Bush the winner and the courts uphold recounts that ultimately give Gore victory?
A. Democrats in Congress could challenge the Bush electors when Congress meets to count the electoral votes in early January, but the Gore camp would need a majority of both houses of Congress. Since the Senate is tied, 50-50, and the House is controlled by Republicans, Gore's chances are poor.
Q. Is it true, then, that Bush is in a stronger position to become the 43d president?
A. Yes. The fact that Gore did not pick up enough votes in Broward and Palm Beach counties to be certified the winner was a costly setback. It may have eliminated his best chance of winning the election.
