A great race, sure, but it's not to be

By Laura A. Kiernan, Globe Correspondent, 11/28/99

As far as political competition goes, it's a dream race. On one side, Governor Jeanne Shaheen, who resurrected New Hampshire Democrats from oblivion and also managed to sustain solid popularity ratings despite tough criticism for her support of a statewide property tax. She runs for reelection against US Representative John E. Sununu, a Republican from Bedford, the brainy namesake of the former governor and former White House chief of staff. Sununu the younger basically breezed into elective office as a novice politican four years ago and now holds seats on two powerful House committees.

Sorry, folks. The much-hoped-for battle is off. At least for now.

Sununu quietly announced last week that in 2000 he intends to run for a third term in the House, where he says he thinks he can do his state the most good. That leaves former US and state senator Gordon Humphrey and former attorney general Jeffrey Howard on the list of likely GOP candidates for governor, at least so far. Shaheen hasn't made anything official. But at the Democrats' Jefferson-Jackson reception recently, she was sounding like she was polishing a theme for a third term. Her likely primary opponent, state Senator Mark Fernald of Sharon, was in the audience.

''Are we on the move or what?'' Shaheen asked the crowd at the Center of New Hampshire. She then went on to list what's ''different'' about New Hampshire since her election in 1996 - a theme her key supporters have been floating too.

Here's the list, in the order mentioned by the governor: 1,400 additional children in kindergarten; a budget that invests in the elderly and children and in the University of New Hampshire; a children's health insurance program; repeal of 1848 antiabortion laws; a new antidiscrimination law that protects gays; lower electric rates through the pending agreement with Public Service Company of New Hampshire; and passage of a holiday for Martin Luther King Jr.

So what about the education funding crisis that dominated her second term? Three years ago the policy in New Hampshire was not to take Goals 2000 education funding offered by the federal government, Shaheen told the crowd. This year, she continued, ''the state is committed to funding 60 percent of the cost of education.'' That of course is a direct result of the state Supreme Court's ruling in the Claremont case, which in turn, after a tortuous legislative session, resulted in Shaheen's approving a new statewide property tax, which now has some towns so angry they are refusing to pay.

Fernald agrees the state has changed, but he has a different take on the same theme. ''New Hampshire has changed,'' he said in an interview. ''It's ready for tax reform.''

''A lot of good things have happened in the past four years, but that's not really the issue,'' said Fernald, a lead supporter of an income tax. ''We're talking about the future.'' And, according to Fernald, without a change in the way the state raises money, the future means jacking up the statewide property tax rate, more gambling or big cuts in social services.

Shaheen's rating goes up in poll

In case you're looking for numbers on how people feel about Shaheen, she has a 58 percent job-approval rating in a poll conducted between Nov. 10 and Nov. 15 by Connecticut's Quinnipiac College Polling Institute. The rating compares with 51 percent favorability in late October. Note that the school funding crisis was resolved - for three years at least - on Nov. 3, before the latest survey was taken. Among Democrats, 70 percent of the voters surveyed approved of the way Shaheen is handling her job, and 20 percent disapproved. On the GOP side, Shaheen had 49 percent approval and 38 percent disapproval; and among independents, 60 percent approved of Shaheen's performance on the job, and 30 percent disapproved. The poll surveyed 1,098 registered voters and had a margin of error of 5.1 percent

A clarification from last week's diary on the GOP presidential primary side: The Quinnipiac November poll had candidate Steve Forbes at 11 percent compared to 10 percent in October, in each case far behind the front-runners, Texas Governor George W. Bush and US Senator John McCain of Arizona.

Democratic control is a Kennedy goal

US Representative Patrick Kennedy, a Democrat from Rhode Island, made a high-energy appearance at the Jefferson-Jackson reception to introduce the guest speaker, US House Democratic leader Dick Gephardt of Missouri. Gerphardt wants to be speaker of the House, and Kennedy, who is chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, is trying to help win the five seats the Democrats need in next year's election to become a majority and give Gephardt that title.

Kennedy, 32, whose mission is to raise big money for House candidates, told the Manchester crowd that he saw ''no finer way for me to use my family name ... to pay homage to my family legacy than to get Democrats elected to Congress.''

On his way out of the event, Kennedy made a point of stopping to talk, at some length, with Ray Giroux of Manchester, who uses a wheelchair because of a spinal cord injury. Giroux, who did not know Kennedy, said the congressman told him that his brother Edward M. Kennedy Jr., who lost a leg to cancer when he was a boy and has been a longtime advocate for the disabled, is starting a Web site. No details were available last week (we'll follow up), but Giroux was enthusiastic about the idea.

''One of the things about having a disability is it's very isolating,'' said Giroux, who works as a computer engineer for Oracle Corp. in Nashua. ''This Web site could be a way to encourage people to communicate with each other.''

Foy decides to run for a different office

Democrat Len Foy of Hudson, who had said he wanted to run for the party's nomination to Congress from the 2d District, has left that race and is now focusing on running for the state Senate seat held by Republican Gary Franceour of Hudson, one of the most conservative of the Senate's 24 members. Foy has thrown his support in the district to Democratic newcomer Barney Brannen of Lyme, whose campaign stickers were everywhere to be seen at the Jefferson-Jackson event. Brannen was working the reception crowd and said he has been meeting with Democrats around the district in preparation for his campaign against Representative Charles Bass, a two-term Republican from Peterborough. And, of course, Brannen said he is ''dialing for dollars,'' as they say in the political fund-raising business, the necessary prerequisite to any campaign.

Meanwhile, Democrats are waiting to see if Sunapee's Mary Rauh, the party's 1998 nominee for the 2d District seat, decides to run again.

Have a cookie, with a message

You may run into her on the campaign trail - the Cookie Mom. She's Goffstown's Sandy Rivera from Business Leaders for Sensible Priorities, founded by Ben Cohen of Ben & Jerry's ice cream fame, and she's happy to hand you a cookie with a message.

The nonpartisan, not-for-profit group, working with military advisers, is promoting a ''Move Our Money'' campaign to get the government to trim ''waste'' from military spending and redirect the cash to other causes, including education and health care. The cookies have a pie chart on them that shows how Congress spends money - half the cookie goes to the Pentagon. Rivera also has nifty membership cards for ''Move Our Money'' which transform a picture of a $200 million F-22 fighter jet into a second picture of 20 new school buildings, which would also cost $200 million.

The ''Move Our Money'' folks are also responsible for the big bus you may see patroling around the State House when presidental candidates show up - it's the one covered with pictures of money bags and gold bricks. Sensibile Priorities is also running a TV ad with Paul Newman, of acting and salad dressing fame. It says the nation's nuclear stockpile of 12,000 weapons should be reduced and the $15 billion in savings spent on education.

''There's no reason in the world we have to have 10,000 nuclear bombs when four will do just fine,'' said Rivera.

Independent streak manifests itself

It's official: New Hampshire now has more voters registered as independents than Democrats or Republicans. According to Secretary of State Bill Gardner, there are now 274,927 ''undeclared'' voters, as independents are officially known; 265,679 Republicans and 197,816 Democrats. There's no way to tell if more Republicans or Democrats changed their registration to independent, Gardner said. He thinks the increase in independent voters represents new young voters.

Bush will be joining the debate this week

Short takes: Lest you forget, Texas Governor George W. Bush makes his television debut in the presidential primary debates on Thursday ... Meanwhile, if you want to study up beforehand on one of the expected topics, Social Security reform, it will be debated Wednesday at the New Hampshire Technical School in Concord. Michael Tanner from the Cato Institute will argue for a new system of personal retirement accounts; on the opposite side will be John Mueller, author of a study for the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare ... Get your tickets now: The New Hampshire Republicans' Presidential Primary Gala dinner - to be attended by all the party's presidential candidates - will be held Jan. 9 at the Whittemore Center at the University of New Hampshire in Durham.

Got a tip or a comment from the campaign trail, state government or town hall? The Political Diary wants to hear from you at: Boston Globe/New Hampshire Weekly, 1650 Elm St., Manchester, NH 03101, or by e-mail at kiernan@globe.com. Please include home and work telephone numbers.