A key challenge: avoiding gridlock

By Sue Kirchhoff and Susan Milligan, Globe Staff, 12/14/2000

ASHINGTON - George W. Bush can only hope that winning the White House was the hard part.

For with the long-sought prize comes a sharply divided electorate, a whisper-thin Republican majority in the House, and a Senate split 50-50 for the first time in its history.

Those dynamics could yield gridlock for a candidate who criticized the Clinton administration for inaction, vowing, ''They didn't lead; I will.''

On the other hand, lawmakers in both parties agree, it is possible that Bush could have a quite successful first year, employing his charm and his ability to reach across party lines to form a consensus on issues neglected in the bitter aftermath of the House vote to impeach President Clinton.

Bush is clearly within reach of victories on substantial tax, health care, and education legislation. It will be much tougher to move his proposals to create private accounts in Social Security and overhaul Medicare.

''The significant factor is not the close margins, but the fact that the Republicans, for the first time in nearly 50 years, will have control of the White House, the House, and the Senate,'' said Robert Greenstein, executive director of the liberal Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, who thinks Washington is not as divided as it appears.

Bush's first legislative priorities will be bills to extend prescription drug coverage for the elderly - which failed in Congress during the Clinton years - and a measure on education, said transition spokesman Ari Fleischer. On the campaign trail, Bush promised to reorganize and provide more funds for federal aid to education.

A ''Patient's Bill of Rights,'' giving medical patients more control over health care decisions, and a tax cut are also likely items on Bush's early agenda, Fleischer said.

The president-elect has some major factors in his favor. The first is a robust economy - albeit a slowing one - and an estimated $4.6 trillion, 10-year budget surplus that is expected to swell even more when new estimates are released next year. He also has a president's ability to command public attention, and low expectations among the press and public that could make even slight victories look weighty.

''Any president in office, no matter how narrow the election, still has center stage,'' said Roger J. Davidson, a political science professor at the University of California-Santa Barbara.

Bush ''starts off a bit more challenged than the normal winner might be, because he didn't win the popular vote,'' said former New York governor Mario Cuomo, a Democrat, ''but when you judge the president, you have to remember this greatest of all nations is also the most dynamic. Things are always stirring.

''What happens is there become eclipsing events ... and you form judgments based on them,'' Cuomo said. ''And who has the time to look back over his shoulder and remember by how many votes Bush won? It's not like that. We don't operate that way in this nation. We will be judging him in the present. And that will give him the opportunity to function and to function well.''

With the two political parties in a state of venomous parity, Bush's ability to govern will depend on his success at finding a political middle. But that also means Bush must make an unappealing choice: Who is he willing to make angry?

The Republican leadership may insist on using their titular control to push through a hardline conservative agenda. While Bush talks of bipartisanship and ''compassionate conservatism,'' House majority whip Tom DeLay, a Texas Republican, is relishing the opportunity to wreak havoc among the Democrats.

''Democrats won't have the cover of a president to hide behind any more,'' DeLay said.

But aggressive partisan tactics could backfire if Democrats stick together. Senate rules require 60 votes to limit debate on a bill - a margin Republicans won't have. And if Bush tries to soothe political wounds by reaching out to moderate Democrats, the GOP stalwarts might feel betrayed.

''I admit my job is going to be a challenge,'' Senate Republican leader Trent Lott of Mississippi said yesterday, as GOP senators offered divergent advice to the new administration on whether to compromise with Democrats or strike a hard line on the tax cut Bush promised during the campaign.

And then there are the forces Bush cannot control. Senator John McCain, an Arizona Republican and one of the most popular politicians in the country, wants to move quickly on the issue of campaign-finance reform, which has widespread public support but breeds division within and between the two parties.

Following is a rundown of top issues for the Bush administration:

Education: Bush wants billions of dollars for early childhood and college education, tougher academic standards, better teacher training, and a limited program of private school vouchers. Compromise is clearly possible, but might not come as quickly, or easily, as Bush would like.

Representative Michael Castle, R-Del., a member of the House education panel, has already been called by Bush. ''My view is that [private school] vouchers will not be a top-line agenda item,'' he said.

The Senate's 50-50 split will give Senator Edward M. Kennedy, the top Democrat on the Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Comittee, a seat at the table. Hillary Rodham Clinton, New York Democratic senator-elect, is angling for a seat on the panel. There is no sign Democrats will back away from their plan to hire 100,000 teachers and build new schools.

Taxes: Bush made taxes the centerpiece of his agenda, calling for $1.3 trillion in cuts over 10 years. His plan would shrink tax brackets, and cap the top tax rate at 33 percent. He would eliminate the estate tax and reduce the so-called marriage penalty, a quirk of the code that forces some married couples to pay more than their single counterparts.

''The two leading candidates are the marriage penalty and the estate tax,'' said Daniel Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor's.

The Republican-controlled Congress, with Democratic support, passed both those initiatives. Clinton vetoed them. Democrats are even more likely to support a tax cut next year knowing a president will sign it into law.

Still, Democrats want to save part of the surplus for new spending and debt reduction. And they think Bush's plan is tilted to the wealthy.

''It's very important for us on the Democratic side to have competing alternatives,'' said Representative Richard E. Neal of Springfield, a member of the tax-writing Ways and Means Committee.

Health care: Look for passage of a Patient's Bill of Rights, albeit not the one Democrats have been pushing on Capitol Hill. The defeat of two Republican senators who had opposed a bill giving more clout to consumers means some form of the measure stands an excellent chance of passing. Republicans will also want to make good on their promise to enact a Medicare prescription-drug benefit before the 2002 elections.

Health care lobbyists say they expect Republicans and the pharmaceutical industry to give Bush a lot of deference on the issue, at least in the early going.

Social Security: Bush is proposing the most significant change in Social Security since its creation in 1935: allowing individuals to invest part of their Social Security payroll taxes in investment accounts.

He is expected to step lightly, appointing a special commission to examine private accounts and the numbingly complex financing issues. But from Day One he can reframe the debate, naming a Treasury Secretary and Social Security administrator who will talk up privatization.

Many Democrats contend that private accounts would inject an unacceptable element of risk into the program by tying benefits to the stock market.

Abortion: Congress has several times cleared legislation to ban so-called partial term abortions, but has not been able to override a Clinton veto. Bush supports the legislation, but it could face a constitutional challenge in the courts.

Minimum wage: Congress failed to pass an increase in the minimum wage this year. Bush, who said during the campaign that he supported an increase, may get it enacted.