he size of the black vote. The breadth of the gender gap. The enthusiasm of Republicans. The strength of Ralph Nader. The power of organized labor. These among are the keys to Campaign 2000, the signposts to watch as Democrat Al Gore and Republican George W. Bush today conclude what could be the closest presidential election in decades.
If the race is as close as projected, Gore, the vice president and son of a former US senator, and Bush, the Texas governor and son of a former president, could be competing for tiny slices of the electorate in states with the fewest electoral votes. The closer it gets, the more likely that Nader, the Green Party candidate, could determine the outcome.
So today, after the turbulent primaries, the tens of millions of dollars in campaign spending, the final flood of advertising, the debates, and the dissection of the issues, the race remains razor-close. Now it all depends on who votes, and where.
''This is a race that has come down to Election Day voter turnout,'' said Anthony Corrado of Colby College, author of several books on the elections. ''We have reached a point where it comes to who can turn out their voters with better efficiency in a handful of key states.''
Here is what to look for as the polls close and television anchors ponder the exit polls:
Key states. The big fight is over about a dozen states that remain too close to call in the final round of polls, including some of the most important: Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Missouri. With Bush maintaining a slight lead in most polls, most analysts believed Gore needed the proverbial ''inside straight,'' taking three or four of those five battleground states.
But the contest could be determined by a number of smaller states that once seemed safe for Gore, including New Hampshire, Maine, West Virginia, Tennessee, Minnesota, and Oregon.
Gender gap. Bush has maintained a big lead among men, especially white men, throughout the election. Gore probably needs a convincing victory among women to win. But the latest New York Times/CBS poll gave Gore only a one point lead among women, while Bush leads among men by 13 points. For comparison, President Clinton won in 1996 partly because he led by 17 percentage points among women. Gore is thought to need at least a 10-point lead among women to win.
Black vote. Gore leads overwhelmingly among blacks, roughly by an 8-to-1 margin. The question is how many blacks will vote. African-Americans make up 13 percent of the population, but vote in smaller numbers per capita than whites. Gore is hoping blacks make up at least 10 percent of the electorate; he is hoping for the biggest among black voters in history. While that will be helpful in states with large black populations, many of the contested smaller states have a small African-American electorate.
Union support. The Gore campaign believes that a strong union vote will help turn the tide, especially in states such as Michigan and Pennsylvania. The Gore camp is hoping that labor makes up 23 percent of those who vote today. But even the most optimistic Gore aides expect only 60 percent of union members to support the vice president. Gore's support among union members is being hurt by Nader and Reform Party nominee Patrick J. Buchanan, both of whom oppose the free-trade deals backed by Gore and Bush. Moreover, some of the battleground states have a small union membership. While 40 percent of Michigan voters are expected to be union members, only 9 percent of Florida voters are members of organized labor.
Republican enthusiasm. Republicans are united not just by Bush, but even more so by a desire to end the Clinton-Gore era. Polls show Buchanan, for example, has failed to pick up much support partly because many of his usual supporters are more interested in putting a Republican back in the White House than in making a political statement for Buchanan. The result is that the Reform Party is likely to fall below the 5 percent threshold needed to obtain federal funding for the next election.
The Nader factor. Nader, who was excluded from the presidential debates on the grounds that he didn't have the necessary 15 percent support in the polls, could demonstrate that even a showing of a few percentage points nationally can be enough to swing the election. Nader is close to 10 percent support in some states.
The CBS poll found that Nader was at 5 percent nationally, but the worst news for Gore was that most of Nader's support comes from Democrats. The survey found Nader was supported by 5 percent of Republicans, 10 percent of Democrats, and only 3 percent of independents. While Gore aides hope to win back some Nader supporters, part of Nader's pitch is that a 5 percent national showing will ensure that the Green Party receives federal funds in the next presidential election.
Electoral College vs. the popular vote. The closeness of the race has led to speculation that Gore could lose the overall vote but win in the Electoral College. Under the Constitution, voters do not directly vote for president. Instead, the president is picked by ''electors'' in each state. Those electors then cast their votes for president. All of the states award electoral votes on a winner-take-all basis except for Nebraska and Maine, which allocate them proportionally.
As a result, with Bush ahead by large margins in his home state of Texas and some western and southern states, and with Gore ahead by much smaller margins in many of his best states, the possibility exists that Bush could get more overall votes but Gore could win more electoral votes. That scenario is most probable if Gore wins by the narrowest of margins in California, New York, Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and some other battleground states.
There have been whisperings in the Bush campaign that it might challenge the result if Gore loses the overall vote but wins the election, but constitutional scholars said a successful challenge is unlikely.
Bellwether states. Some states have a history of getting it right. New Mexico has backed the winning candidate every time since it became a state in 1912 except 1976. Delaware has voted correctly every time except 1952. Missouri has supported the eventual president every time this century except 1956. If one candidate wins all of the bellwethers, he is very likely to be the next president.
