A strong economy steals GOP thunder

Candidates hampered by satisfied electorate

By Aaron Zitner, Globe Staff, June 13, 1999

WASHINGTON -- You are tired, says Dan Quayle.

You are "exhausted and stressed," he says. "You work hard. You miss dinners. You miss breakfasts. Sometimes you skip your child's play at school." And all because the government demands that you work ever-harder to pay always-higher federal taxes.

Steve Forbes puts it this way: Many of you are bankrupt, "drowning in personal debt" and in constant fear of creditors. Many middle-class families are "struggling to keep their heads above water."

Lift up the hood on the American economy, and you will not find the smooth-running machine that has made the United States an island of prosperity in a turbulent world. At least, not if you are a Republican candidate for president.

While much of America revels in a record-high stock market and near record-low unemployment, the booming economy has become a problem for Republicans as they try to dislodge the Democratic Party from the White House. Traditionally, the party out of power searches for some dissatisfaction among Americans and tries to turn that feeling into votes.

But voters are so content with their financial lives these days that a whole range of familiar GOP themes has been blunted.

Tax cuts? Americans are too busy earning money to worry about trimming the government's share, a perennial Republican issue. In a Gallup Poll last month, only 4 percent of people cited the tax burden as the nation's top problem -- down precipitously from 67 percent in early 1992, the last year Republicans held the White House.

Improving the business climate, another common Republican appeal, carries little urgency as the world pours money into US stocks. Promises to create jobs mean little to a nation already at work. And the balanced federal budget has made another GOP evergreen issue -- cutting the size of government -- hard to get passionate about.

"People are more generous in their view of government when they're doing well themselves," said Karlyn Bowman, a public opinion scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. "There's not the same opposition to federal programs as in the past."

To be sure, the general election is still 17 months away -- plenty of time for the red-hot economy to cool and for economic complaints to take center stage. But for now, Republicans face a challenge in raising some of their traditional themes.

"The tendency is to look to taxes and a balanced budget," said Linda DiVall, a pollster working for GOP candidate Elizabeth Dole. "But the robust economy means that Republicans have to deal with a range of other issues that they were not as comfortable with in the past, like education and Medicare."

Nor will it be easy for Bill Bradley, the former New Jersey senator, to use the economy to his advantage in chasing Vice President Al Gore for the Democratic nomination. "I think he's just going to have to find traction on other issues," said Charles Cook, a political analyst and columnist.

The economy is often the overarching theme of an election. President Clinton, for example, rode to power on the campaign mantra: "It's the economy, stupid." But for the party in power, a strong economy will not always guarantee success. Richard Nixon cut short an eight-year Democratic reign in 1968 despite a long-running economic boom related to the Vietnam War.

Indeed, Gore is not quite basking in the economic sunshine. Two Republican candidates, Dole and Texas Governor George W. Bush, hold significant leads on him in early polling.

But Americans frequently vote their pocketbooks. A candidate who can claim credit for putting money in the voters' wallets is in an enviable position.

And it is only a matter of time, many analysts say, before Gore begins running TV ads promoting himself as the key architect, along with Clinton, of the longest-running peacetime expansion on record. The ads will probably brag that wages are up, unemployment is down, and home ownership is at record levels.

"They will feature every leader of the Republican Party talking in 1993 about how Clinton's plan for the economy will be the worst thing in the history of mankind," said Cook. "They will ask: Who do you want? The team that did it, or the team that adamantly opposed it?"

"It will be hard for any Republican nominee to answer those ads," acknowledges Jeffrey Bell, a policy aide to presidential candidates Nixon, Ronald Reagan, and Jack Kemp, who this year is advising social conservative Gary Bauer.

So, what can a Republican candidate say about the economy? "Change the subject in some way," advised Bell.

"You just avoid it," said Cook.

But that is nearly impossible for some Republicans. They are running for two jobs at once: for president, and for heir to Reagan as leader of the small-government, tax-cutting wing of the party. That requires them to talk about how much those policy prescriptions could do for the economy.

Republicans are trying a variety of strategies, often several at once, to turn the economy to their advantage. Their tactics:

  • Argue that times are not as good as they seem

    The economy may look strong, but Representative John Kasich of Ohio says that wage and productivity growth are "far slower" than in past economic recoveries. Three-time candidate Patrick Buchanan rails about the trade deficit, which he calls "a malignant tumor in the intestines of the US economy" that is killing off US manufacturers.

    "Look behind the illusion of the Clinton and Gore magic show and see what has happened in the years since they took over," urges Lamar Alexander, the former Tennessee governor. "Twelve more countries have jumped over us in high school graduation rates; our taxes are higher; the federal regulation book is thicker; our national defense is weaker."

  • Deny the Democrats credit

    The true hero of the economy is tax-cutter and inflation-fighter Ronald Reagan, said Elizabeth Dole in a recent speech. She gave credit for the current economy to Reagan, to the Republican Congress, to Alan Greenspan, and to "the powerful engine of private enterprise." At the same time, she criticized Clinton and Gore for raising taxes and adding burdensome federal regulations.

  • Cast taxes and prosperity as a moral issue

    While polls show that Americans have few concerns about the economy, they are greatly worried about the challenge of raising children amid a perceived decline in ethics and parenting skills. Republicans are trying to bring the two issues together.

    High taxes keep Americans on the job and away from their children, says Forbes. Arguing for tax cuts, he says: "Just look at the explosion of teenage crime and violence and drug abuse -- look at the emptiness in the lives of so many young people today -- and tell me that we shouldn't be doing everything that we possibly can to set parents free to spend more time with each other and their children."

    Similarly, Quayle, the former vice president, says that high taxes keep parents on the job and out of the home. And Bush speaks of "prosperity with a purpose." The Texas governor has not defined the concept in detail, but says it entails "not just material wealth" but a chance to help the needy and "to strenghten our families, where we find love and values."

  • Argue that they will be better stewards of the current prosperity than Al Gore

    Bradley has also adopted this strategy, highlighting his work as a senator on the 1986 tax reform bill and on the mid-'80s debt crisis in developing nations.

    Still, all of these are "secondary arguments" that will carry less punch than Gore's claim to be directly responsible for the good economy, said Allan Lichtman, a history professor at American University in Washington. "You've got to hit people between the eyes, given that half of the people don't even vote. None of these arguments will go very far," Lichtman predicted.

    In some ways, said Bell and other Republicans, the party is hampered because it has already won the debate on several important economic issues.

    Clinton signed on to welfare reform, long a Republican goal. The federal budget is in balance, a preoccupation of many Republicans. And Democrats have largely abandoned any talk of a federal industrial policy, especially now that Japan has tumbled into recession. The Japanese government's role in controlling bank lending and industry is considered a chief culprit in the downturn.

    "The Republicans have a great deal to run on with the economy," said Jim Nicholson, chairman of the Republican National Committee. "We have real bragging rights in reforming welfare and other issues."

    But Bell, the aide to Bauer, doubted that argument would sell. "There may be truth to it, but voters are not interested," he said. "They don't dwell on who has the best claim to some change that they favor. They'll give the benefit of the doubt to the people in the White House."

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