he rationale put forth by Democrats advocating the nomination of Bill Bradley as president rests on the premise that he is insultated from Clinton fatigue.
Vice President Al Gore, in the eyes of many, is seen as Clinton Lite, a sidekick to the wayward president, a sort of mumbly Sancho Panza to Wild & Krazy Bill's Don Quixote. Whether you buy the argument or not, there are some numbers to support the Bradley forces' contention that their man is less vulnerable to the so-called Clinton drag than the veep.
In the Political Hotline's collection of state-by-state horse race matchups, Texas Governor George W. Bush leads Gore by 27 states to five, but Bush leads Bradley by only 16 states to nine. Both Gore and Bradley lead Bush in New Hampshire, interestingly enough; Gore tops Bush by 44 percent to 40 there, while Bradley tops Bush by 15 percent.
Otherwise, Gore is ahead of Bush only in Hawaii, New York, Rhode Island, and Tennessee, while Bradley leads Bush in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, and Vermont. What's it mean? Not much yet.
As the year closes, Bush is ahead in his own party's race everywhere but New Hampshire, where he trails Senator John McCain of Arizona by 9 points in a week-old American Research Group poll. Gore is still ahead of Bradley nationally and in a solid majority of states nationwide but trails in the Northeast and was 12 points back of Bradley in the American Research Group's New Hampshire survey.
With four weeks to Iowa's caucuses and five weeks to New Hampshire, it is conceivable that McCain and Bradley will both lose in Iowa, remain favorites to win New Hampshire, and go on to lose their respective nominations. New Hampshire voters are clearly receptive to their twinned messages of campaign finance reform, new broom, and time for a change from the warmed-over goods delivered by the respective party establishments.
But after New Hampshire, where do McCain and Bradley win? Bradley has slightly the better of the terrain, given his strength in the Northeast. But it appears to be a steep uphill climb for both Bradley and McCain, though it's steeper for McCain. Nobody knows whether a campaign message ignited by New Hampshire can catch fire in either party once the caravan moves beyond the Granite State.
In a way New Hampshire remains the last boutique primary, the lone remaining holdout of the old style of electioneering, where retail campaigning, one-on-one, living room, coffee shop, high school gym campaigning, survives. Because once you get past this mom-and-pop operation, where candidates call folks by first names and sometimes visit more than once, the nominating process turns into a Wal-Mart operation, a national franchise scheme, where television ads, big money, campaign spin artists, and national TV news shows substitute for the meet-the-folks campaigning that traditionally incubated national candidacies.
People like George McGovern, Jimmy Carter, Mike Dukakis, Ronald Reagan, and Bill Clinton were not party establishment choices. But they all either won in New Hampshire, or came second close enough to survive, and eventually got nominated.
Bush's strategy is to say nothing nasty about McCain, apparently because Bush feels his superior firepower in terms of money, endorsements, and hospitable terrain beyond New Hampshire mean that McCain cannot deny him anywhere else.
Bradley may have more room to roam if he holds on to his lead in New Hampshire. One reason is that despite his big lead in super delegates and the muscular endorsement of the big labor unions, Gore has yet to prove he's anywhere near as adept on the stump as the man he's trying to replace.
Many Democrats appear to have little enthusiasm for Gore as their next leader. Bradley is no barnburner in day-to-day campaigning, but he plods along at a steady pace. Lugubrious in manner and saddled with a baggy-eyed droopiness that belies his athletic success as a young man, Bradley nevertheless piles up debating points by reminding voters he is not part of the Clinton legacy of immorality.
Bush is already running against Clinton - not Gore, as it happens. Bush's latest flood of pricey Boston-based TV spots going into New Hampshire picture Nice Guy George with his wife and handsome little kids, vowing to bring ''honor and integrity back to the White House.''
In New Hampshire this month, one of Bush's brain trust said to me, ''We just feel that America wants to take a shower'' after the revelations of Clinton's womanizing.
''America may want to take a shower,'' I agreed, ''but the voters also don't want to take a bath.'' The Democrats have to come up with a strategy that makes the prospect of Bush's future in office more terrifying than Clinton's past. So far they haven't. But it is easier for Bradley to promise a new day for the Dems than it is for Gore.
There are many voters, and many Democratic voters, disgusted with the fertilizer generated by Clinton's conduct and spread by a partisan Congress. Bradley keeps hanging around despite Gore's obvious tactical advantages because the vice president has yet to articulate a credible strategy for countering the Clinton fatigue factor. With his new TV blitz trumpeting ''honor and dignity,'' Bush indirectly helps Bradley.
David Nyhan is a Globe columnist.
