OLUMBIA, S.C. - Bubba helped Jim Hodges become governor, but he might not be able to help the governor pass his biggest campaign promise.
On Nov. 7, South Carolina voters will decide whether to amend the state constitution to allow a lottery. It was just two years ago when Bubba, a fictional good ol' boy from Georgia, was featured in a popular ad campaign that helped the little-known Hodges, a lottery supporter, beat Governor David Beasley, a Republican.
Bubba declared mockingly that Georgia ''loved'' Beasley, an evangelical Christian who opposes the lottery, because his policies encouraged South Carolinians to drive across the state line to buy lottery tickets in Georgia.
Polls have consistently shown that a majority of South Carolinians favor a lottery, which would generate revenue for education programs, and Bubba is back on the airwaves to try to get the measure passed. But support has eroded over the past year in the face of an aggressive antilottery campaign.
A Mason-Dixon survey conducted late last month showed 48 percent in favor, with 41 percent opposed, compared with 60 percent in favor of a lottery six months ago. The South Carolina Democratic Party, which supports the lottery, released its own poll Monday showing the lottery favored, 56 percent to 40 percent.
Regardless, Bill Moore, a political science professor at the College of Charleston, said the momentum has shifted against the lottery.
''I would be very surprised to see it pass,'' Moore said.
Hodges and his South Carolina Education Lottery Coalition are up against formidable opponents: All of the state's major religious denominations have publicly denounced instituting a lottery, and more than half of the No Lottery 2000 organization's funding has come from religious groups.
The South Carolina Baptist Convention, the state's largest denomination, has given $65,000 to the antilottery effort, and three individual Southern Baptist churches have each donated $25,000.
Even Hodges's own denomination, the United Methodist Church, has a Web site opposing the lottery, calling it a ''menace to society, deadly to the best interests of moral, social, economic and spiritual life, and destructive of good government.''
The pro-lottery camp is undeterred.
''Many good, decent people of faith disagree with their church's doctrine,'' said Morton Brilliant, the governor's deputy chief of staff, who is taking a three-week vacation from that job to campaign for the lottery. ''People disagree with their churches all the time.''
Lottery supporters point out that many church members who oppose a lottery buy raffle tickets and play bingo. ''Besides, Carolina's already got a lottery; it's in Georgia,'' said state Representative Todd Rutherford, pointing to the estimated $100 million that South Carolinians spend each year on Georgia lottery tickets.
Generally, the antilottery effort is made up of conservative Christians and Republicans; the pro-lottery camp, which includes the mayor of Columbia and the state superintendent of education, is heavily Democratic.
The lottery battle here bears some striking similarities to a recent fight in Alabama: A Southern Democrat, promising a lottery as a panacea to education woes there, unseats a popular Republican governor. But Alabama Governor Don Siegelman's lottery quest ended unsuccessfully, losing by 8 percentage points in a special election last year.
Mindful of Siegelman's example, Hodges stayed out of the fray until this week, letting his former chief of staff, political strategist Kevin Geddings, promote the lottery. In the week before the election, however, Hodges will campaign for the lottery, and he has agreed to participate in an Oct. 30 debate on the issue.
If the lottery vote fails, it will be a setback for Hodges politically, but not a devastating one, said Moore of the College of Charleston.
With such a close vote, both sides expect the turnout of two groups - conservative churchgoers and African-Americans - to determine the question's outcome here. Hodges was elected with the help of African-Americans, who make up about 30 percent of the state's population. But the state's NAACP this month voted to oppose a lottery because of uncertainty over how the proceeds would be distributed.
The governor has proposed a plan to spend $150 million in lottery revenue on 110,000 college scholarships and free tuition for teachers pursuing master's degrees. The plan also would give more than $40 million to public schools for laptop computers and provide free tuition to any South Carolinian wishing to attend a technical college in the state.
Legislators failed to pass the enabling legislation this year, so Hodges's plan is a wish list that legislators could jettison when the next session convenes. That uncertainty has provided fodder for the antilottery effort.
''We are the first state ever asked to vote on a lottery with no enabling legislation in place to govern it,'' said Kathy Bigham, a Rock Hill restaurant owner and chairwoman of No Lottery 2000. ''It's truly a blank check.''
The lack of details also led NAACP leaders to oppose the lottery, although the group said it would not work actively against it.
Voter turnout is expected to be low because there are no statewide races and the presidential contest, is so lackluster that neither candidate is buying television commercials here. George W. Bush is considered to be the hands-down favorite.
Low turnout will probably help the antilottery camp, but Bigham is cautiously optimistic, at best.
''We just hope we can be successful in getting out the voters that we believe are with us in this fight,'' she said.
