hat happens to the presidential aspirations of Al Gore, Bill Bradley, and George W. Bush may have as much to do with historical destiny than with how they run their campaigns.
Last week, Vice President Gore shook his up, moving it from the Washington Beltway to the streets of Tennessee. While that was probably a wise move, and certainly enhances Gore's chances of success, it may prove less important than the record of how vice presidents have fared in their bids to succeed the president under whom they served.
Vice presidents who won their party's nomination have not fared well. Hubert H. Humphrey, who was vice president to Lyndon B. Johnson and became the Democratic nominee in 1968, lost to Richard M. Nixon.
Some political analysts suggest that the Chicago street protests against the Vietnam War during the Democratic National Convention contributed to Humphrey's loss, as well did the antiwar candidacy of Eugene McCarthy, the Minnesota senator.
Ironically, Nixon was vice president under President Eisenhower when he lost to John F. Kennedy in the 1960 presidential election.
The same fate awaited Gerald Ford, Nixon's vice president, and Walter F. Mondale, who was vice president to President Carter. And the list goes on.
During the country's infancy, succession was much simpler for vice presidents. John Adams was vice president to President Washington, and was elected the next president. Thomas Jefferson was vice president to Adams, and then was elected the next president. In later years, Martin Van Buren was vice president to Andrew Jackson, and then sent to the White House.
The only success story in contemporary political history is George Bush the elder, George W.'s father, who succeeded President Reagan when he defeated Democratic nominee Michael S. Dukakis in 1988.
Of course, there were other Democratic and Republican vice presidents who became president, but their elevation to the office was not the result of elections, but of the death or resignation of their presidents. Among them: Andrew Johnson, when Abraham Lincoln was assassinated; Chester Arthur, with the death of James A. Garfield; Theodore Roosevelt, with the death of William McKinley; Calvin Coolidge, with the death of Warren G. Harding; Harry S Truman, with the death of Franklin D. Roosevelt; and Ford upon Nixon's resignation.
But history also offers Gore a bit of good news, at least in the short term. Sitting vice presidents, whether Democrat or Republican, who run for president usually win their party's nomination.
But history turns discouraging again when, setting aside the candidacies of vice presidents, one looks at how the two parties have fared overall. Republicans, it turns out, have fared better than Democrats.
Since 1920, five GOP non-vice presidents have become president, and only three Democratic non-vice presidents.
Perhaps Gore can take heart in the experience of Bush the elder, who - like Gore himself - served two terms under his president before making his own bid. Bush is history's success story for vice presidents with higher aspirations.
But George Bush had more things going for him than did Dukakis. He had the Reagan legacy, and he had a less formidable candidate in Dukakis than Gore has in George W. Bush.
Last but not least, many voters in 1988 wanted to see the Reagan legacy continue through Bush, while many voters are not enthusiastic about wanting to see the Clinton legacy continue. While Gore strives to separate himself from Clinton's flaws, he is at the same time trying to run partly on the economic prosperity of the Clinton administration - a delicate balancing act.
Of course, there are exceptions to historical patterns. Bill Bradley could pull off an upset and win the Democratic nomination, and then beat George W. Bush in the election. But if historical destiny prevails, Gore will be the Democratic nominee. After that, it's up to him to rewrite the script of past elections.
Moving his campaign to Tennesse might at least help Gore to realize just how far he has to go next year to reach the White House.
Robert A. Jordan is a Globe columnist.
