OS ANGELES - Ten days ago, Governor George W. Bush left the Republican convention with such a boost in national polls that he might have been tempted to ponder the prospect of victory in November. On the other hand, Bush might have pondered the fate of Democrat Michael S. Dukakis.
Two days after his convention, Bush held a breathtaking 17-percentage-point lead over Vice President Al Gore in a Gallup poll, and a 15-point edge in a CBS News poll - statistical evidence, said some analysts, that Gore faces a steep uphill road if he is to win in November.
But Dukakis, the former Massachusetts governor, says of such polls: ''It's all absolute foolishness.'' And he should know: Dukakis left the Democratic convention in Atlanta in 1988 with a 17-point lead over Bush's father. Dukakis lost that November, and not by a little.
''I wouldn't be surprised if Al Gore is ahead after the Democratic convention,'' Dukakis added. ''But that won't be real either.''
What seems real to pollsters and political analysts in both parties is that the general election campaign is likely - almost certain, some say - to be extremely tight. Right now, most voters are paying little attention, said Democratic poll taker Mark Mellman, much like magazine readers who flip right past the color ads for new automobiles in August and start to look closely only when it comes time to shop for a car in October.
For now, what pollsters are measuring are the fickle preferences of a largely disengaged electorate, who are asked to make a choice before many of them are ready, and with swings in allegiance traced to which candidate commands the stage at the moment.
Before the GOP convention in Philadelphia began on July 31, Bush held a slim lead in most polls, in some cases within the margin of error. But almost two weeks of media attention on his vice presidential selection and convention gave Bush a substantial boost in many polls.
''Each side gets to tell its story uninterrupted, and now it's Al Gore's turn,'' said William A. Carrick, a Democratic political consultant in California.
Both Bush and Gore, Carrick said in an interview, ''start with the support of polarized political coalitions. But there are a lot of people in the middle without strong ideology who share positions offered by both sides.'' It is these voters, Carrick said, who swing back and forth. Many women voters, he said, liked what Bush had to say about values. But this week, some of those voters are likely to be swayed by Democratic arguments about gun violence and education, he said.
Thanks to such swing voters, the polling tide has already begun to turn: For the last week, Gore has preempted the political stage with his selection of Senator Joseph I. Lieberman as his running mate. Over the weekend, CBS News, ABC News, and Newsweek all released new polls showing that Bush's lead had slipped to about 10 percentage points.
Ari Fleischer, the Bush campaign spokesman, said yesterday that the governor of Texas expects the race to be ''about dead even'' by Labor Day.
By Fleischer's reckoning, about 70 percent of voters are ''done and committed,'' leaving 30 percent up for grabs in the fall.
If Gore's prospects seem to be brightening, some of the underlying numbers in the latest round of polls are more worrisome for him than what Dukakis and others describe as the relatively meaningless horse race figures.
In the Newsweek poll, for example, Bush leads Gore 48 percent to 38 percent in the head-to-head matchup. (Minor party candidates Ralph Nader and Patrick J. Buchanan each drew 3 percent of the tally.) But when voters were asked about the qualities they look for in a president, Bush was seen as having stronger leadership qualities and as more ethical and honest. Gore was seen as slightly more intelligent and well informed.
If voters are mercurial in August, it's no wonder. Poll takers are asking them whom they would vote for if the election were being held now. When voters are simply asked, as they seldom are, whom they plan to vote in November, the percentage of undecided voters inevitably soars.
Indeed, polling that is done on Election Day as voters leave the polls consistently finds substantial numbers who say they did not make up their minds until Election Day neared. In 1996, even though the choices, President Clinton and Senator Bob Dole, were well known, 30 percent of voters said they made up their minds in the month before the election. Eleven percent, more than one voter in 10, settled on their choice in the three days before the election.
If history repeats itself, Democrats hope, Bush's lead will evaporate just as Dukakis's did in 1988. But Fleischer, the Bush spokesman, counters that with a little history of his own: Only once since 1952 has the candidate who trailed on Labor Day won the election, according to Gallup polls. The exception: Ronald Reagan in 1980, who had narrowly trailed President Carter.
John Long of the Globe Staff contributed to this report.
