And now: the primary deluge of a 'national campaign'

By Ron Fournier, Associated Press, 02/02/00

WASHINGTON -- The snowy expanses and quirky electorates of Iowa and New Hampshire behind them, the presidential candidates recast their campaigns Wednesday for a broader horizon of big-state primaries.

"The warmups are over, the national campaign has begun," said Democrat Bill Bradley, reviewing his 0-for-2 record against Vice President Al Gore, including a stinging defeat in New Hampshire's leadoff primary Tuesday.

Licking his wounds from a landslide loss in the GOP contest, front-runner George W. Bush said New Hampshire victor John McCain "had the luxury of picking and choosing" the states in which he would compete.

"I'm a national candidate," Bush said, knowing the GOP race will soon become a national campaign.

Working off wildly different primary schedules, the Democratic and Republican candidates set separate courses out of New Hampshire.

Gore and Bradley threw themselves into coast-to-coast travel to prepare for their next Election Day: March 7, when Democrats in 15 states award nearly 40 percent of the convention delegates.

Bush, McCain and the rest of the GOP field, meanwhile, will compete in a handful of February primaries that could reshape the race before their own March 7 showdown.

Strategists in both parties worked Wednesday to determine where to focus their resources.

Democrats have more time to prepare, but less money to spend. Advisers in both contenders' camps, speaking on condition of anonymity, revealed that:

  • Gore expects Bradley to spend $5 million on TV in the March 7 states, and the vice president will be prepared to match it. Bradley aides say their budget is several million dollars higher than Gore expects.

  • Both campaigns realize they don't have enough money to impact voters with widespread major-market TV ads. Gore plans to target his ads to reach Democratic constituencies. To a lesser extent, Bradley hopes to do the same. Shows that attract black viewers, for example, would draw the campaigns.

  • Both campaigns will rely heavily on "free media," news reports about the campaign, mostly on local TV. Gore has the advantage as the front-runner and sitting vice president.

  • Gore plans to beam his way by satellite into states where Bradley is visiting, hoping to piggyback on his rival's coverage.

For trips and TV ads, Gore plans to focus much of his attention on Ohio, California, Georgia and New York, four delegate-rich states loaded with traditional Democratic constituencies -- such as minorities and labor members. Exit polls showed Gore doing well among those groups in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Gore strategists say they hope to force Bradley to spend his money on his political base, the Northeast. Polls show Gore doing well in New York, Massachusetts and Maryland.

Even before any bounce he'll get from the New Hampshire victory, the vice president led Bradley 2-1 in California, a state with 367 of the 2,170 delegates needed to clinch the nomination.

A top Bradley strategist said the March 7 campaign is not a state-by-state fight but rather a national effort with the media playing a central role. That's why Bradley abruptly switched position and called for weekly debates against Gore.

Bradley already had an uphill struggle against the party establishment, and his defeats in Iowa and New Hampshire make it even less likely that he can overcome Gore's huge advantages. Democratic strategists said it's time for Bradley to roll the dice, perhaps accepting Gore's offer for a joint agreement to not air TV ads.

On the Republican side, Delaware's primary next Tuesday offers Bush and publisher Steve Forbes a chance to recover from McCain's beating. Forbes, who has gotten little for his personal investment in the race, badly needs a win.

Bush can't afford another loss, thus he's splitting his time between Delaware and South Carolina, which is next up on the primary calendar. McCain is bypassing Delaware to focus on South Carolina's Feb. 19 primary.

Bush strategists plan to use surrogates, and perhaps their own TV ads, to question McCain's conservative credentials and criticize his support of tobacco tax increases.

Learning from their mistakes in New Hampshire, aides say Bush will be less scripted and more open to question-and-answer sessions that served McCain so well.

Bush himself promised to be tougher on McCain. "One of the things that he did a fine job of is making himself look like the outsider. He's the Washington, D.C., person," Bush said.

The Texas governor also plans to tailor his message for a more conservative electorate, as evidenced by his visit Wednesday to the Bob Jones University. Some aides privately objected to the visit, saying the school's segregationist past sends the wrong message from a candidate espousing "compassionate conservatism."

Exultant in victory, McCain's advisers promised no major changes in their message. They do hope to stuff his depleted bank account with donations generated by the New Hampshire victory.

He raised $500,000 from the Internet alone just hours after winning.

McCain needs to defeat Bush again to keep his campaign alive, but South Carolina will be harder than New Hampshire. The Arizonan led Granite State polls for eight weeks and benefited from the state's independent spirit.

McCain advisers suspect that Bush still holds a double-digit lead in South Carolina. And the state tends to back establishment candidates.

As McCain rode a wave of good feeling, a reporter asked Wednesday if he would consider Bush as a running mate.

"Of course," the senator replied. "But I think that doing that after winning one primary is a little presumptuous."