As clock ticks, GOP camp weighs a recount in Iowa

By Susan Milligan, Globe Staff, 11/16/2000

ASHINGTON - Republicans and Democrats are laying the groundwork for a possible challenge of the presidential election results in Iowa today, a move that would open another front in their struggle for the White House in a state where Vice President Al Gore eked out a victory and took seven electoral votes.

Iowa could be critical to George W. Bush if the Texas governor ends up losing Florida. Without the Sunshine State, Bush might still win the election if he successfully challenges Gore's victories in Iowa and Wisconsin, and then goes on to take Oregon, where votes are still being tabulated.

But it will not be an easy decision for Bush and his aides, who have denounced Gore's vigorous pursuit of county-by-county recounts of the Florida results. Republicans would rather wait until the Florida count is finished, but don't have that luxury because of Iowa's deadlines.

''The problem is, the Republicans are stuck with our deadline,'' and will lose the opportunity to challenge Iowa's results if they wait until the Florida count is resolved, said Rob Tully, chairman of the Iowa Democratic Party.

The parties have until 5 p.m. today to petition about two-thirds of the state's 99 counties for a recount, and until 5 p.m. tomorrow to demand recounts in the rest of the state. Bush or Gore would have to sign the requests personally, and each county would require its own letter.

There have been no complaints of fraud or vote-tampering in Iowa, where Gore is currently ahead by about 4,100 votes, the state's Democratic and Republican chairmen agree.

The Bush campaign has lawyers in Austin, Texas, and with the Republican Party in Iowa examining the situation. ''At this particular point in time, no decision has been made'' about whether to challenge Iowa's vote, said Bush spokesman Bob Hopkins.

Tully said that he expects the Republicans to ask for recounts, and that he would not try to stop them. But assuming the Republicans would ask for recounts in only those counties with GOP majorities, Tully said, he would then challenge results in traditionally Democratic counties.

According to Tully, the decision puts the Bush camp in an awkward position: If it decides not to challenge the vote in Iowa and Bush loses Florida, the GOP will lose its only chance to take the White House. But demanding a recount weakens the moral argument the Bush campaign has made in Florida, where Bush aides have assailed the Gore side for demanding new tallies.

''In advocating for'' a recount in Iowa ''they are taking away their argument in Florida,'' Tully said. ''They're in a Catch-22.''

But Iowa GOP chairman Kayne Robinson said the two states were different, since the Gore campaign has asked for a second recount in Florida, and Republicans are considering only one recount in Iowa. ''Our standards are going to be a lot higher than that,'' Robinson said.

Iowa uses neither butterfly-style ballots nor punch cards in its elections, said Donn Stanley, spokesman for the Iowa secretary of state's office. A recount would take 18 days - longer, probably, in this case, because of the Thanksgiving holiday, Stanley said.

When it comes to managing elections, Iowa, some observers noted, is not Florida. It's much smaller, it's uncongested, and the mechanics of the voting process make it less susceptible to fraud or gross mistakes.

''I'm dubious that there are many votes that would swing here in Iowa,'' said Russell Osgood, a constitutional lawyer and president of Grinnell College, who said he doubts the GOP will follow through with its challenge.

Nevertheless, the Iowa Republicans are hard at work, checking the vote results in each of the state's approximately 2,000 precincts against the voter registration and voting history in those districts. ''We're just up to our ears in numbers,'' looking for anomalies, Robinson said.

Robinson will report his findings to the Bush campaign in Austin, where the final decision will be made.

Winning Iowa would be irrelevant to Bush if he takes Florida, and not enough if he loses Florida to Gore. Without Florida's 25 electoral votes, Bush would also have to win both Oregon, which has seven electoral votes, and Wisconsin, which awards 11 electoral votes to the winner.

A spokesman for the Wisconsin Republican Party said no decision had been made on whether to challenge results in that state, where Gore is unofficially ahead by about 6,100 votes.

In Oregon, where all voters receive ballots by mail, results are still being tabulated. Unofficial surveys have put Gore ahead by 3,960 votes. Oregon law says the counties do not have to report their results until Nov. 27.

Approximately 9,800 ballots are still to be counted, he said. If the margin of victory is 0.2 percent or less, a recount would be paid for by the state. But if a candidate insists on a recount when the margin is wider, he would have to pay the cost - about $100,000, McGuire said.

The smallest and potentially most havoc-wreaking state in the recount scenario is New Mexico, where Gore appears to have won by just 375 votes.

The state had at one point been put in the Bush column. But routine reexamination of the county reports showed that there had been a misreading of one tally, and that Gore, who was credited with getting 120 votes for that district, should have received 620, said Dino Montoya, press secretary to the New Mexico secretary of state.

With only five electoral votes, New Mexico could not give Bush a win on its own. But added to Wisconsin and one of the other states in play - Iowa or Oregon - New Mexico could bring Bush's tally without Florida to 269 - meaning the presidential race would be deadlocked at 269 electoral votes for each candidate.

''Two good things have come out of this,'' Montoya said. ''One, people now realize that one vote does matter. And two, New Mexico will no longer be one of the `missing states.'''