T. PETERSBURG, Fla. - Even as she entered the auditorium yesterday, even as she smiled at the chance to see the vice president in person, Tess Laurente was unsure.
Gore or Bush? Republican or Democrat? With the presidential election just six weeks away, Laurente said her vote was as much a tossup as the entire state of Florida's suddenly appears to be.
''I just can't say right now,'' said Laurente, 64, a nurse who plans to retire next March and puts Medicare and Social Security benefits at the top of her voting agenda. ''I want to make sure I'm in good hands, so I'll listen to Mr. Gore today and maybe Mr. Bush the next time he comes around.''
Laurente is likely to get a go at the Texas governor. With Florida, once considered a lock for George W. Bush, now unexpectedly up for grabs for a variety of reasons, both candidates have been putting in as many appearances as possible. While unwilling to give the election to Gore just yet, if at all, political observers said recent polls have forced the Bush campaign to divert time and attention to a state it considered a given.
''If I was betting, I'd still have to bet that George Bush will win the state,'' said Aubrey Jewett, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Central Florida in Orlando. ''But clearly it's going to be tight, tight, tight.''
Gore was in St. Petersberg yesterday to expound his proposals for seniors, playing to the largely elderly crowd from the start by describing his wife, Tipper, as the grandmother of his grandson.
''I'm fighting for the seniors of America, the people who have worked hard all their lives, paid their taxes, and deserve some peace and security in their older years,'' Gore said to wild applause at the Coliseum, where a pink sign outside advertised Wednesday afternoon tea dances.
Seniors are a key constituency in Florida, where almost 20 percent of the residents are age 65 or older. They're among the most consistent voters, too, with political observers in the state saying that they typically constitute as much as 35 percent of the election turnout. Now, apparently impressed by his sweeping proposals for prescription drug plans and his guarantee that Social Security will survive in its familiar form, a good number of them appear to be turning toward Gore.
In a state where his opponent's father won in 1992 and his brother Jeb is now governor, and where the state House and Senate are both Republican, other factors may be working to Gore's advantage, too. As Jewett sees it, Gore's New Democrat moderate line on some issues appeals to many Florida voters, as President Clinton's did in 1996 when Florida went into his reelection column.
Gore's nomination of Senator Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut as his running mate also helped solidify the Democratic base in southeastern Florida, although that section of the state was expected to support him anyway, political analysts said. Bush is expected to win southwestern and northern Florida, leaving the midsection known as the I-4 corridor after its highway as the current campaign battleground.
''Florida has always been a pretty competitive state,'' particularly in statewide races, said Thomas Carsey, an associate professor of political science at Florida State University in Tallahassee. ''There are roughly equal numbers of people who identify themselves as Republicans and Democrats.
''But Florida has always had a different Democratic mix compared with other states,'' he added, ''so the Republican gains in the New South are muted a bit.''
Historically, Miami's Cuban population voted Republican. But, analysts said, US-born Cubans tend to be slightly more liberal than their immigrant, fiercely anti-Castro parents. In Central Florida, the newcomers include Puerto Ricans and an increasing number of Mexican-Americans, a population that has tended to vote Democratic.
Still, as Carsey put it, ''two or three months ago, it would have been stunning if the state went to Gore because Jeb Bush is governor. Now it would only be surprising.''
Not surprisingly, most of the people who made their way to the Coliseum in yesterday's early afternoon broil were Gore supporters. Like Eloise Harrington, a 53-year-old account manager for a credit reporting firm, many did say they themselves were surprised by Gore's newfound popularity in Florida.
''A lot of people I know say they're going to go Democratic for the first time,'' Harrington said. ''I think Gore's got a great chance.''
Many of the people James Whaley knows, however, remain undecided, except for what he called dyed-in-the-wool Democrats. Even his Republican friends are uncertain, as is he. Whaley did not attend Gore's speech, which was invitation only.
''I could be for Al, but he's got to do something rather than just be for something - not that George Bush is going to do something,'' said Whaley, 57, a hotel limousine driver originally from Missouri and a Clinton supporter in 1996. ''He did pick a great running mate, though. But I'm still going to take my time to decide.''
