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At last, GOP battle heads for vote-rich national stage
By Ron Fournier, Associated Press, 02/26/00 WASHINGTON -- Now things get serious.
The topsy-turvy Republican presidential race, fought thus far on tiny or quirky battlegrounds, moves to the national stage with two weeks of voting in 25 states. Texas Gov. George W. Bush hopes to hobble Sen. John McCain's campaign on the March 7 "Super Tuesday" and put him away March 14, when six Bush-friendly Southern states conduct GOP elections. The Arizona senator hopes to clean up March 7, survive March 14 and drag the nomination fight deep into the spring. Both hope to get a running start Tuesday, when Republicans make their choices in three states. "Conventional wisdom is that Bush is still in the strongest position for the long haul," said Steve Duprey, chairman of the New Hampshire GOP. "But we all know how shaky conventional wisdom is this year." The campaign already has passed through the first-test states of Iowa, New Hampshire and Delaware. Ultraconservative South Carolina went to Bush. And Michigan voted McCain, although the primary actually drew more non-Republicans than Republicans. McCain holds a slight lead over Bush in the hunt for the 1,034 delegates needed to win the nomination. Bush holds a narrowing lead in the money chase. "We're going national," Duprey said. And so are the candidates, starting with voting Tuesday: NORTH DAKOTA. Bush has a clear advantage in state caucuses. McCain has not campaigned for the state's 19 delegates. VIRGINIA. Bush leads McCain by 11 points in a recent poll. Bush's local supporters, however, are complaining that his national brain trust is micromanaging the campaign. Worried that Democrats and independents can upset Bush in the open primary, his team is contacting people who voted in 1996 for moderate Republican Sen. John Warner, who is popular in independent-minded northern Virginia. Gov. James Gilmore, a Bush backer, has a rock-solid political operation that will be put to the test. After Gov. John Engler's vaunted "firewall" collapsed in Michigan, Bush can't afford to be scorched by McCain in Virginia. WASHINGTON STATE. Both campaigns say polls show them in a tight race. McCain hopes to avail of Washington voters' independent streak. The Arizonan has a strong organization, but Bush's is deeper. Though Bush has been on the air longer, McCain is spending almost as much as Bush on TV ads in the run-up to Virginia and Washington, a reflection of how the Texan's financial advantage has been virtually erased. After raising a record-shattering $70 million, Bush now has less than $13 million in the bank. McCain, once at a 5-to-1 disadvantage to Bush, has nearly as much money. That will come in handy on March 7, when 13 states hold GOP contests: CALIFORNIA. The Big Kahuna, California awards 162 delegates to the winner. Half of McCain's "Super Tuesday" schedule and at least $2 million of his TV budget are dedicated here. Bush has spent less, but plans to increase his buy. News coverage may be more important than pricey advertising time, and McCain generated a lot of attention with his Michigan victory. Working to Bush's advantage is a closed primary, meaning only the votes of registered Republicans will count. McCain, who won New Hampshire and Michigan with non-GOP votes, is trying to broaden his appeal by talking about his conservative credentials. Both candidates are airing ads comparing themselves to native son Ronald Reagan. As elsewhere, Bush has the endorsements of the political elite, but McCain has narrowed the governor's wide lead in polls. Democratic consultant Bill Carrick of Los Angeles predicted that McCain will get more votes than Bush but will lose the delegates when non-Republicans are sifted out. "Bush could lose California and win the delegates," Carrick said. NEW YORK. The state's Byzantine election laws favor Bush and his establishment backers, but polls show the race is not out of McCain's reach. The Arizonan won a highly publicized ballot-access fight. Delegates are awarded to the winner of each of the state's 31 congressional districts, thus neither campaign is likely to leave empty-handed. "I'd be surprised if either candidate goes 31-zip," said New York GOP consultant Kieran Mahoney. NEW ENGLAND. McCain's victory in New Hampshire gives him the edge in Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Connecticut. Bush's team expects only Maine and Vermont to be competitive. GEORGIA. Bush proved in South Carolina he is popular among southern conservatives. McCain is targeting four suburban Atlanta congressional districts to cherry-pick delegates but won't bother elsewhere. MARYLAND. McCain just spent $220,000 to air ads in the TV market that straddles Virginia and Maryland. The latest poll gives Bush a wide lead, but McCain still may make a run at the Texan with a quick visit to the state. MISSOURI. Bush may be too strong. McCain tentatively plans to stay out of the state. OHIO. A critical state because all its delegates go to the winner. Bush has another governor in his camp, Bob Taft, and polls suggest a large lead for the Texan. It's harder than in Michigan for voters to cross over, and the state doesn't have a history of party-switching that could help McCain. McCain will match Bush's homestretch advertising budget and plans to make two trips to the state. "Bush has the edge," said John C. Green, political scientist at the University of Akron. "Of course, Bush had the edge heading into Michigan. So I can easily see McCain winning, but he's got a lot of work to do." MINNESOTA. A nonbinding straw poll is drawing little attention. WASHINGTON STATE. After campaigning with an eye toward Tuesday's primary here, McCain and Bush hope to pick up an additional 25 delegates awarded in March 7 caucuses. McCain believes he needs to sweep the New England states, earn a majority of the New York delegates and win all California's delegates to offset Bush's advantage March 14. Six states hold GOP primaries on that date, including Texas and the home state of his brother, Florida Gov. Jeb Bush. Sandwiched between the two big Tuesday primaries are March 10 contests in Colorado, Utah and Wyoming. |
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North Dakota: Leaning Bush. (19)