oston may well be the city that decides the 2000 presidential election.
The decisive factor will not be in the voting booths, as it was in Chicago in 1960, the year that that city was credited with tipping the balance in favor of John F. Kennedy over Richard M. Nixon.
Rather, this election may be decided here Oct. 3, on the stage at the University of Massachusetts campus, the scene of the first of three scheduled debates between Vice President Al Gore and Texas Governor George W. Bush.
For Bush, who is lagging in most polls behind Gore, this first debate is expected to be the most important of the three. If he does well against Gore, an acknowledged good debater, Bush will remain competitive. If he stumbles, he may not.
Even if he did better during the next two debates (Oct. 11 in Winston-Salem, N.C., and Oct. 17 in St. Louis), Bush would have a hard time overcoming his initial debate error, since it is that image that voters tend to carry into subsequent debates.
When US Senator Edward M. Kennedy engaged Mitt Romney in the first senatorial debate between them in 1994, Kennedy made such a positive impression that the remaining debates didn't matter much. He simply had to avoid major mistakes, which he did. Romney, on the other hand, did not come across as well. Although he did better the second time around, it was not enough to overcome his earlier second-best performance.
For Bush, of course, the stakes in this first debate are much higher than for Gore, given Bush's recent stumbles. Even his strategy to pressure Gore into accepting a more limited series of debates backfired when voters thought he was trying to avoid Gore. Bush got himself into trouble earlier when, speaking to his running mate Richard Cheney, a microphone caught Bush using an unflattering anatomical word to describe a certain New York Times reporter.
Bush's troubles continued when Democrats noticed that one of his political advertisements briefly displayed the word ''rats'' (at the end of the word ''bureaucrats'') across the screen. Democrats accused the Bush campaign of underhanded subliminal advertising, which it denied. But many viewers have found it hard to believe that the display of ''rats'' was accidental.
With his problems, which include a poll last week that had him eight percentage points behind Gore, 49 to 41, Bush perhaps wanted to have his first debate in more friendly territory than Boston, the home base of two Democratic US senators in Kennedy and John F. Kerry, and the home of the JFK Library. Even with Republican Paul Cellucci in the governor's office, Bush sees Massachusetts as strongly Democratic.
But Bush eventually accepted Boston as a debate site (along with the other two debates proposed by the Commission on Presidential Debates). Even if he succeeds in lowering expectations about his debating skills, he has little room to make any major mistakes in his first go-round with Gore. If he does blunder, this debate could well be for him, as Senator Kerry said, another ''Boston Massacre.''
Ironically, Bush is likely to be scrutinized more closely than Gore by many of the undecided moderate and conservative voters whom the Texas governor is hoping to bring into his fold. Many of these voters are the same ones who supported, and still support, President Clinton. However, if Gore does well in this first debate, most of these Clinton backers are more likely to go with him, regardless of how well Bush performs.
Bush may also have a problem with another upcoming debate - the Oct. 5 vice presidential one. While most political pundits believe that a vice presidential candidate has little influence on voters' ultimate preference, that may be less true in this campaign. Gore's running mate, Senator Joseph Lieberman, has given him a boost; the same does not appear to be the case for Cheney.
News reports about Cheney's financial holdings, and his failure to vote in some past elections, have not helped Bush's campaign. And, thus far, Cheney has not addressed important issues, as Lieberman is doing for Gore. If Cheney is to do more for Bush in this campaign, he has to perform well in the one and only vice presidential debate.
But the most important debate of this election is the one in Boston between Gore and Bush. Not only what they say, but also how they look when they are answering tough questions, will count.
Bush must convey to swing voters that he will be a strong, intelligent, and mature leader who will improve the lives of most Americans. Unfortunately for Bush, Gore appears to have an edge in this area, as reflected in most polls.
So when Bush arrives on Oct. 3, he should be prepared for a grueling debate. He would not want Boston to be remembered as the city where his presidential hopes were dashed as sure as the boxes of tea were on the night of the Boston Tea Party.
Robert A. Jordan is a Globe columnist.
