LOS ANGELESAt the very end - and this was the end - it didn't really matter what the final splits were in the California and New York primaries, at least not to John McCain.
McCain's candidacy as a realistic shot at the Republican presidential nomination ended with a thudding finality earlier last night when the remorseless arithmetic of national convention delegates delivered a final verdict from Super Tuesday's underemphasized core four - Ohio, Missouri, Maryland, and Georgia. George W. Bush's ability to put McCain away in the Bush family vacation state of Maine (while losing its ancestral home in Connecticut) merely supplied the coffin's last nail.
As it turned out, the real significance of California and New York was for the contest that began late last night: the general election. The fissures opened by the McCain-Bush fight and what the fight showed about the presumptive GOP nominee have helped put two Electoral College foundation stones of Democratic success back in place.
When Bush was the all-things-to-all-people, compasionate conservative governor, he upset all political applecarts and was a potential force everywhere. When he became the conservative Republican alley fighter, summoning right-to-lifers in particular and religious conservatives in general to crush a maverick challenger with the temerity to pitch at independents and Democrats, his fortunes on Democratic turf dipped drastically.
The Bush-McCain war solidified Al Gore in Iowa and New Hampshire at first, then in Michigan, Washington state, California, and New York. Polls are also showing Gore leads in two more swing states Bush dominated before the campaign really began: Illinois and New Jersey.
Bush is still a strong force, but history teaches that this game is sequential, and so far, when the actual campaign has come to a November-critical state, Bush, as a conservative, antiabortion, deep-tax-cut Republican, has not worn well. Last night, most McCain voters were telling pollsters they were not ready to vote for Bush in the fall.
This was in marked contrast to Bill Bradley's band of brothers. (His small vote was overwhelmingly concentrated among upscale white males.) By huge margins, Bradley supporters said they were ready to swallow Gore.
Unless McCain surprises everyone and goes third party, Bush faces an immense fence-mending job. In contrast, the Democratic fence, along with the all-important economy, remains intact.
Thomas Oliphant is a Globe columnist.
