Bradley, Gore push to round up endorsers

Backing can have impact, measurable or symbolic

By Anne E. Kornblut, Globe Staff, 11/22/99

ASHINGTON - Bill Bradley may have John Havlicek. But Al Gore has Mary Whitney. And in the funny world of presidential primary endorsements, it is hard to say which matters more.

Havlicek, a former Celtics star, made a symbolic pitch to voters last week by appearing at a Madison Square Garden fund-raiser, instantly tapping the nostalgia of countless basketball fans.

Gore has few such icons in his camp. He has not even been endorsed by several in Massachusetts' congressional delegation, including Senator Edward M. Kennedy. But Gore has amassed an army of official supporters, including Whitney, the mayor of Fitchburg, who can tap into a local political machine.

Will either endorsement strategy make a difference? Political analysts said they may not, especially in a campaign where voters have more access to information than ever before. And when they do make an impact, it may be invisible: While a star like Havlicek might have a symbolic effect on sports fans, the backing of the less glamorous AFL-CIO might mean a volunteer corps passing out campaign pamphlets on the ground.

''Clearly, having a large group of basketball players endorse Bradley means something in terms of the money he has raised and the profile he has,'' said Norman J. Ornstein, a political analyst. ''But we pay more attention to this stuff than we should because we're more than a year out from the election. We have fun with this stuff. But we don't want to go overboard here.''

Political analysts scrutinize endorsements nonetheless, and never more so than when an underdog manages to steal a prize supporter away from the expected candidate. And so it was that earlier this month attention turned to the Democratic balance sheet, after several high-profile people threw their support behind the Bradley campaign. In September, Daniel Patrick Moynihan, the New York Democratic senator, stunned Gore supporters by backing Bradley, bluntly dismissing the vice president because Gore ''can't be elected president.'' Last week, Bradley made another splash at Madison Square Garden, bringing in $1.5 million at a fund-raiser whose star-studded guest list included 20 Hall of Fame basketball players, several musicians, and movie director Spike Lee.

One day later, Robert B. Reich, President Clinton's longtime friend and former labor secretary, told a group of students he was breaking ranks because ''the times call for bold solutions'' that only Bradley could provide. Reich's endorsement was broadcast on CNN and generated more publicity than almost any Gore announcement to date.

And although such endorsements may have been symbolic, several political analysts said that is precisely what Bradley needed to boost the legitimacy of what was once a hopelessly long-shot campaign. Neil Newhouse, a Republican pollster with Public Opinion Strategies, said, ''The value is in what it says about the traction a campaign actually has.'' Derrick Max, an analyst at the Cato Institute, a political think tank, agreed: ''When you have an upstart candidacy like Bradley's, it's important to say, `People believe in me.'''

At the same time, Max said, Gore's emphasis on political officials around the country is a logical extension of his message: that despite the public relations disasters of the Clinton White House, Gore still has the support of people who believed in the administration's policies. And while the influence of political machines has decreased over the decades, with mayors no longer able to deliver entire towns at the polls, the support of local operatives can still have a symbolism of its own.

''I think there's credentialing going on, where Gore wants to be able to say, `Look, I worked with these people, and they are behind me,''' Max said.

According to Bradley spokesman Tony Wyche, the former senator has secured the endorsement of just three Democratic members of the US House. Three US senators, Bob Kerrey of Nebraska, Paul Wellstone of Minnesota, and Moynihan, have also publicly declared their support, along with several hundred state officials across the country, Wyche said. By contrast, Gore has more than 440 public officials on his endorsement checklist so far, including 94 members of the US House, eight governors, and 253 mayors, according to a Nov. 9 list provided by his campaign. He also has the backing of 19 Senate Democrats, including John F. Kerry.

Combined with the 40 local officials who have announced their support in Massachusetts, including Boston Mayor Thomas M. Menino, Gore's aides say they are confident they have strong foundations to win the primary. Their assessment is partly mathematical; according to Tad Devine, a Gore consultant, the ''delegates make the difference'' at the Democratic convention, where 800 party leaders and elected officials nationwide become delegates in addition to those chosen in the primaries.

By the time of the convention, the race is rarely close enough for these 800 ''superdelegates'' to make or break an election; at that point, they usually rally behind the candidate who is in the lead. But Gore campaign officials think their large number would work in Gore's favor.

''You'd like everybody to be with you, but it's not surprising that Senator Bradley, after 18 years in the Senate, would have some former colleagues who would support him,'' Devine said. ''I think that has to be measured against the broad base of support the vice president has in the party. A couple of outspoken people versus 500 delegates? I'll take the 500 delegates. Being a front-runner in the process, people will always want to look and see how half-empty the cup is.''

But if the Massachusetts delegation is any indication, Gore still has challenges ahead. Representative John W. Olver of Amherst made an early commitment to Gore but now says he is ''trying to avoid any deeper entanglement.'' ''I really want my freedom longer,'' Olver said. He said that even discussing it made him uncomfortable, because it might force him to make a premature move, adding: ''I don't have to endorse anybody, ever.'' Representatives J. Joseph Moakley of South Boston and Richard E. Neal of Springfield have formally announced their endorsements of Gore, and at least two others, James P. McGovern of Worcester and William Delahunt of Quincy, publicly promised to back Gore. But Representatives Martin T. Meehan of Lowell, Barney Frank of Newton, and Michael E. Capuano of Somerville refused to back either candidate. The two other members were unavailable for comment.

The biggest wildcard is clearly Kennedy, a close ally of the Clinton administration who wields influence nationwide.

Even if Kennedy does not endorse Gore, without endorsing Bradley outright, it would cause a tidal wave of negative publicity about the vice president's campaign, several political analysts said.