ill Bradley has vaulted into a virtual tie with Al Gore in the Democratic race for president in New Hampshire, according to a Boston Globe/WBZ-TV poll that found many voters in the first-primary state voicing eagerness for political change despite the region's prosperity.
George W. Bush, meanwhile, is maintaining a large lead over his GOP rivals in that presidential race. Elizabeth Dole was in second place, just ahead of John McCain, the survey found.
Among likely voters, Vice President Gore leads Bradley, the former New Jersey senator, by 40 percent to 36 percent. That amounts to a statistical tie because that spread falls within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.
Recent polls by other news organizations have found Gore to hold a larger, though shrinking, lead. Gore had been seen as a shoo-in for the nomination, a perception that may have been a factor prompting Senator John F. Kerry of Massachusetts, among others, to stay out of the contest.
''The Democratic primary race really appears to be a race that could go either way,'' said Gerry Chervinsky, president of KRC Communications Research, which conducted the survey of 800 likely voters for the Globe and WBZ-TV from Aug. 27 to 31. ''Gore has an unfavorable rating that is higher than one would expect. It is partly due to the fact that people simply want a change.''
Gore is broadly popular among likely Democratic primary voters, with 65 percent viewing him favorably or very favorably. But he is viewed unfavorably by 19 percent of Democrats, and by 32 percent of the crucial constituency of independents who say they expect to vote in the Democratic primary.
Bradley draws a favorable rating of 66 percent. But the poll found that only 11 percent of Democrats - and none of those independent voters surveyed - had rated him unfavorably.
The poll found several factors eroding Gore's standing, among them his stalwart support of President Clinton throughout the impeachment scandal and the lingering concerns about allegations of his role in the campaign fund-raising excesses of the 1996 Clinton-Gore campaign.
But perhaps most worrisome for the vice president is that New Hampshire Democratic primary voters, while admiring President Clinton and believing that the nation is generally headed in the right direction, are somewhat restless with the present political leadership. The poll found only 21 percent of Democrats saying they wanted to keep current government officials, while 39 percent said it was time for a change.
On the Republican side, the poll found that Bush, the Texas governor, continues to maintain his dominance over the field, supported by 44 percent of those surveyed, followed by Dole, the former transportation secretary and Red Cross director, with 14 percent, and McCain, an Arizona senator, with 12 percent.
Dole appears to have benefited from her third-place showing in last month's Iowa straw poll, which McCain bypassed, and her support for some gun-control measures. The poll found considerable support in New Hampshire, among Republicans and Democrats, for certain gun-control measures, including registration of all handguns.
The poll suggests that Dole is not drawing support based on status as the first woman to mount a major party campaign for the presidency; there is no appreciable difference in Dole's support among men or women.
Steve Forbes, who has spent millions of dollars from his fortune to pay for early television advertisements, was in fourth place with 7 percent, while the commentator Patrick J. Buchanan and former Vice President Dan Quayle each had 4 percent, and a former Reagan aide, Gary Bauer, had 3 percent.
(The Globe inadvertently omitted the name of Alan Keyes from the list of candidate names that were read to poll respondents. In a Franklin Pierce poll released late last week, Keyes's support was at 2 percent.)
Other candidates drew negligible support in the Globe/WBZ-TV poll.
While the survey is an early indicator of political trends, the history of recent campaigns makes it clear that such results can turn around. For example, in a February 1995 survey done by KRC, Bob Dole led Buchanan 42 percent to 9 percent, but Buchanan wound up winning the New Hampshire primary. Dole went on to capture the nomination, although he lost the general election.
Bush is clearly benefiting from his family name and from the legacy of former President Bush. Twenty-four percent of likely Republican voters cited Bush's name and family history when asked why they supported the Texas governor, while another 24 percent cited his stand on the issues, and 25 percent mentioned his record as governor.
Bush has made an extraordinary impression in a short period. He is viewed favorably by 73 percent of Republicans; only 14 percent have an unfavorable opinion.
Meanwhile, one controversy involving the Bush campaign appears unlikely to have much impact. The vast majority of voters in both parties - 73 percent - said their views of a presidential candidate would not be affected if it turned out that he used cocaine 25 years ago. Bush has declined to say whether he used cocaine at that time, although he has said he would have passed a 15-year background for drug use required in his father's administration, which began in 1989.
On the other hand, if a candidate used illegal drugs five years ago, 29 percent of Republicans said they would not vote for such a candidate and 42 percent said they would consider withholding support.
Republicans said they were generally satisfied with Bush's answers to questions about whether he has ever used drugs, while Democrats were split on the question.
Compared to some elections, when the economy or foreign affairs was driving the campaign, there appears to be no single issue dominating this race. Among Democrats, 21 percent said the top issue was health care, 17 percent said it was education, and 9 percent said it was crime. Among Republicans, 17 percent said the top concern was education, 11 percent saw it as health care, and 8 percent said their first issue was the bureaucracy, politicians, and corruption.
While New Hampshire is enjoying record prosperity, with a 2.5 percent unemployment rate, signs of concern spring up throughout the poll. Among Democratic voters, 45 percent said the country has changed for the better in the past eight years, while 25 percent said things were worse, and 27 percent said there was no change.
Republicans took an even dimmer view, with 19 percent saying things were better, 45 percent saying worse, and 30 percent finding no change.
Despite the usual focus on New Hampshire as an antitax state, the issue did not seem to rise to the forefront of the campaign. Taxes were viewed as a top issue by only 8 percent of Democrats and 7 percent of Republicans. The majority of voters in both parties said it was more important to secure Social Security and pay off the national debt than to return the budget surplus to taxpayers.
There does not appear to be a particular issue driving a wedge between Bradley and Gore, but the poll found some Bradley strengths that could become crucial factors during the campaign.
Perhaps most significantly, Bradley is far ahead among Independents who said they would vote in the Democratic primary, enjoying a 51-31 ratio. Independents can vote in the New Hampshire primary by switching their affiliation at the polling place. In the Globe/WBZ-TV poll, Independents made up one-fifth of those who said they would vote in the Democratic primary.
The race also features an emerging gender gap, with Gore enjoying more support among women; Bradley more from men.
Clinton remains popular in New Hampshire, where the president's second-place finish in the 1992 primary earned him the nickname of the ''comeback kid.'' Seventy-four percent of Democrats voiced approval of the job Clinton is doing as president, while 16 percent expressed disapproval. Among Republicans, the figures were 34 percent approval, 58 percent disapproval.
