Bradley's challenge -- pull an Iowa surprise, then keep going

By Mike Glover, Associated Press, 12/22/99

SIOUX CITY, Iowa -- Bill Bradley plans an intense January of campaigning in Iowa in hopes of springing a surprise on Vice President Al Gore and giving himself a boost for New Hampshire and beyond.

By all accounts, including his own, Bradley needs a fast start when the Democratic presidential caucuses and primaries get under way at the end of next month.

Even if he gets that quick burst, he'll face major challenges in his fight to wrest the nomination from front-runner Gore. For example, the vice president has already wrapped up hundreds of the members of Congress and party officials who will be convention "super-delegates."

And if Bradley should get on a roll in the early primaries, Gore has solid support for California's 367-delegate primary the first week in March -- a "fire wall" in the words of one consultant.

Bradley thinks he can overcome those hurdles. But first, Iowa.

The former New Jersey senator is scheduled to spend some 20 days in Iowa in January -- compared with just six in New Hampshire -- in an indication of the importance he is putting on a good showing in the Jan. 24 caucuses.

"We have to do better than expected in both Iowa and New Hampshire," the candidate said.

The caucus system in Iowa gives party regulars control, and Gore has a clear edge there. Polling has shown him with a 20-point lead, and he has a better organization.

Bradley has hovered within competitive range, however, and his commitment of January time shows the importance he is putting on making a good showing.

"I think it's tough for him to beat Gore, but he can come close," said Michael Gronstal, a Council Bluffs Democrat who is undecided.

"I think he can win," said Nate Parker, a Sioux City activist as he mulled his choice. "I've been going around town to meetings and restaurants and his name keeps popping up."

Getting close in Iowa could be crucial for building momentum heading into New Hampshire, where topping expectations won't be easy. Polls there have been showing Bradley even or slightly ahead.

On the Republican side, Arizona Sen. John McCain also is hoping to pull a bit of a surprise in Iowa in his effort to overtake front-runner George W. Bush.

Unlike Bradley, McCain isn't campaigning in the state, focusing instead on New Hampshire and later states. But he did take part in a mid-December debate in Des Moines and is appealing to "a hardy band" of supporters to come out for him on caucus night.

For the Democrats, Bradley needs to score early because he's starting off well behind. And he's competing under rules written by a party establishment overwhelmingly backing Gore.

The Democratic primary season is all about collecting the 2,169 delegates that will be needed to get the party's nomination at next summer's convention. Of the more than 4,300 delegates, nearly 800 will be "super-delegates," who are members of Congress, members of the Democratic National Committee and other party elite.

"Gore starts with a very substantial edge in delegates because of the commitments he's gotten," said Norm Ornstein, of the American Enterprise Institute. "It's like trying to win a 100-yard dash when your opponent starts at the 20 yard line."

Bradley says the party faithful will get the message when he begins winning.

"Super-delegates tend to be very good politicians and they pay attention to what the people say and I think if I do well in the primaries, I'll do all right in super-delegates," said Bradley.

Others aren't so sure.

Bill Carrick, a California-based Democratic consultant who isn't aligned with a candidate, said those practicing politicians are all familiar with the ebb and flow of campaigns and, lacking a compelling reason, aren't likely to switch.

"He has got to really be able to demonstrate he's a better candidate than Gore," said Carrick. "Otherwise the super-delegates are just going to fasten their seat belts and hang in there with Gore."

After Iowa and New Hampshire on Jan. 24 and Feb. 1, there's a pause. The rivals will pick and choose their targets before March 7, when voters in 15 states and American Samoa pick 1,315 delegates. By March 14, voters in 30 states will have spoken.

"There's no question that I have to dominate in that period in order to be the candidate," Bradley said.

Dominating won't be easy.

The richest prize is California, with 367 delegates at stake. Polls show Gore with a solid -- if somewhat reduced -- lead. He has made dozens of trips to the state and has the backing of Gov. Gray Davis.

"Gore has all the unions, he has the minority community, he's in pretty good shape here," said Carrick. "There is a fire wall here."

New York's 243 delegates are also at stake that day, but that's considered Bradley's backyard and anything less than a convincing win would be considered a setback.

The party has banned winner-take-all primaries and will award delegates instead on a proportional basis. That makes it tougher for Bradley to score a knockout blow by winning a couple of big states and piling up all their delegates.