ROBERT A. JORDAN

Bradley's challenge to Gore has a model in Tsongas '92

By Robert A. Jordan, Globe Staff, May 23, 1999

In New Hampshire, the candidacy of presidential hopeful Bill Bradley in 1999 is looking more like the candidacy of Paul Tsongas in 1991 -- with a few key exceptions.

Vice President Al Gore, the acknowledged front-runner for the Democratic nomination, would be wise to familiarize himself with the surprise victory Tsongas pulled off in the New Hampshire primary in 1992. If Gore did, he might take Bradley a little more seriously.

The little-known advantage that Tsongas, the former US senator from Massachusetts who died in 1997, had eight years ago is basically the same advantage Bradley has in the forthcoming 2000 primary.

Bradley is perceived as a longshot; is especially appealing to voters seeking a fiscally conservative liberal; and has a reputation for being "clean," with none of the kinds of problems that President Clinton has faced and the fund-raising questions Gore is still dealing with.

New Hampshire voters also might like about Bradley some of the things they liked about Tsongas: a dry sense of humor and a low-key campaign style that allows him to look more human than many politicians.

Two other New Hampshire primary winners had similar characteristics: US Senator Eugene McCarthy in 1968 and Georgia Governor Jimmy Carter in 1976, both of whom positioned themselves as the alternative, if not the anti-politician, candidates. Bradley appears to have a similar appeal for New Hampshire voters.

Tsongas was so appealing to Democrats in 1992 that registered independents decided to take out Democratic ballots in the primary to vote for him. Even though some of them wanted to vote for Vice President George Bush, the GOP's leading candidate, they assumed he would win his battle against Pat Buchanan and thus chose to help Tsongas edge out other Democratic hopefuls, including Clinton.

There were so many independents who wanted to vote for Tsongas that year that several towns in southern New Hampshire almost ran out of Democratic ballots by the evening of election day. Ironically, Tsongas's upset victory was almost overshadowed by Clinton's second-place finish ahead of two other Democrats, which earned him the title "comeback kid."

Bradley appears to be positioning himself as the viable independent alternative to Gore's heavily-financed candidacy. In addition, Bradley's clean image could play well next to the investigation of Gore's fund-raising.

But there are also key differences between the Tsongas and Bradley campaigns that could hinder Bradley's chances of pulling off an upset victory next year.

Tsongas, for example, was so little-known, and viewed as such a weak candidate, that New Hampshire's elected officials and political operatives were unwilling to jump on his bandwagon.

However, some of Tsongas's early campaign advisers saw this not as a liability but as an advantage. The workers began building the Tsongas campaign with community leaders rather than elected officials, which gave Tsongas a nonpolitical image that worked well among New Hampshire voters.

On the other hand, while Bradley's candidacy is actually stronger than Tsongas's was at the same stage of their campaigns, Bradley's team may work against him. Instead of surrounding himself with independent, nonpolitical Granite State community leaders, he has been bringing in fairly well-known political operatives. That costs him an image as an outsider, a maverick.

At this stage, Bradley is a well-established candidate who has to be taken seriously; at this point in the 1992 campaign, Tsongas was not taken seriously, even in his home state. It was Tsongas's low profile that helped him to quietly build a community-oriented campaign team that appealed to so many New Hampshire voters. In the end, Tsongas enjoyed all the advantages of a candidate who came from behind.

Bradley would do well to bring community-oriented people into his New Hampshire campaign, such as the head of a town Little League or the president of a Rotary Club, as Tsongas did.

In the end, a lack of money forced Tsongas out of the race. Bradley may have the resources necessary to compete with the very financially able Gore, especially if he upsets the vice president in in New Hampshire. Gore, of course, is working hard to make sure that does not happen.

With no incumbent president, the media spotlight is likely to generate more national voter interest in both the GOP and Democratic winners.

If he hopes to do as well against Gore in the New Hampshire primary as Tsongas did against Clinton, 1999 candidate Bradley may have to become more like 1992 candidate Tsongas. And that may be as tough a challenge for Bradley as being more like Clinton is for Gore.