By Jill Zuckman, Globe Staff, March 1, 1999
MANCHESTER, N. H. -- This old mill town is ground zero for Patrick J. Buchanan, the Republican who trounced Bob Dole in 1996 and embarrassed former President George Bush in 1992.
It is here that Buchanan's "peasants with pitchforks" massed on the hill, and here that Buchanan declared that the establishment in Washington "is shaking in its boots."
But there may be trouble ahead this time. When Buchanan returns tomorrow to announce his third run for the presidency, he will see that many of his key lieutenants have decamped to Steve Forbes, Dan Quayle, and Gary Bauer.
And with so many conservatives running for the nomination in 2000, Buchanan cannot be sure whether there are enough "peasants" to propel him to victory, or if the crowded field will splinter his winning coalition.
"Part of the problem for Buchanan is economic prosperity," said John J. Pitney, a political scientist at California's Claremont McKenna College who closely observes conservatives. "Most of the peasants with pitchforks are sipping cappuccinos at Starbucks. Things are going pretty well."
Buchanan's message in 1992 and in 1996 was hot and inciteful, directed at foreign trade, the export of jobs, and general economic distress. His message struck a chord in New Hampshire, with the state's struggling economy and the residents' penchant for a strong conservative message. Today, however, the national unemployment rate is 4.3 percent, and the New England rate is even lower, at 3.2 percent.
Patricia Krueger, a state senator who represents this working-class and increasingly conservative city, was a delegate to the Republican convention in 1996 for Buchanan, and voted for him in 1992, too. But this time around, her support is not guaranteed. She says she wants a candidate who will win.
"I'm not sure if his time has come and gone," Krueger said.
"We're fortunate this time because there are a whole lot of conservative candidates out there," she said. "One thing I'm certain of, I'm definitely backing a winner this time."
It is also not clear whether Buchanan, a television commentator and columnist, will receive the continued support of the Manchester Union-Leader, a newspaper with a powerfully conservative voice. In 1996, Buchanan's strength came in the areas where the Union-Leader has the widest circulation.
In 11 of Manchester's 12 wards, Buchanan beat Dole by margins of 2 to 1 and 3 to 1. Similarly, Buchanan overwhelmed Dole in the surrounding towns of Hooksett, Goffstown, Londonderry, Auburn, and Candia.
This time, though, many political observers say the newspaper seems to be leaning toward Quayle, the former vice president. And Quayle is gunning for Buchanan voters.
"Many of them agree with Dan Quayle's message, particularly on strengthening the family and middle class values, and I think we're experiencing quite a bit of success in those areas," said Jonathan Baron, Quayle's spokesman.
Quayle, of course, is not the only candidate appealing to voters who were once with Buchanan. Forbes has spent the last couple of years blending his economic message with socially conservative themes to attract Buchanan's followers.
"Everyone would like them, everyone would like every vote," said Paul Young, an adviser to Forbes.
The other campaigns have also been scooping up Buchanan's former advisers, hoping they might bring along a little of the magic that propelled Buchanan's candidacy. Peter Robbio, Buchanan's New Hampshire executive director, is working for Forbes. So is Greg Mueller, who served as Buchanan's communications director. Connie Mackey, a Buchanan strategist, has gone to work for Bauer. Ovide Lamontagne, the former candidate for governor, is chairing Quayle's campaign in New Hampshire.
Despite the scattering of staff and volunteers, Buchanan's success has been attributed to a force of personality, rather than the product of a highly efficient campaign organization.
Shelly Uscinski, the chairman of New Hampshire's Christian Coalition and a past Buchanan delegate, said Buchanan will have to return with a message that can overcome similar conservative messages from his competitors.
"When you consider the social conservatives who are running -- George W. Bush, Gary Bauer, Bob Smith, Steve Forbes -- it's going to take a lot of discernment among conservative people of faith as to who they're going to go with," said Uscinski.
Buchanan could not be reached for comment. But a call to his toll-free hotline finds that he is sticking to many of the issues he ran on the last two times: opposition to abortion, keeping American jobs on US soil, and restoring the manufacturing base.
Steve Duprey, New Hampshire's Republican chairman, said he hears Buchanan voters scrutinizing his candidacy more critically than they did in the past.
"Voters are asking, 'Do I like what this candidate stands for and do I think he or she can win?' " Duprey said. "I hear a lot of Buchanan supporters say, 'I love Pat, but he leaves New Hampshire and then folds.' "
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