ASHINGTON - Patrick J. Buchanan's likely bid to become the Reform Party presidential nominee could boost the status of Steve Forbes as the GOP's conservative alternative in the primaries and take away votes from George W. Bush in a possible general-election matchup.
But Buchanan's all-but-official decision to leave the Republican Party could also wreak havoc in his newfound political home, setting off a fight for the Reform Party's candidacy that could result in ballot-stuffing and could bankrupt the party, the incoming chairman warned yesterday.
Jack Gargan, who will oversee the Reform Party's nomination process when he takes over as chairman on Jan. 1, said in an interview that the organization's rules allow anyone to request a Reform Party primary ballot, leading some group leaders to worry about running out of funds in the effort to verify eligible voters.
''Whoever has the biggest mailing list can clearly stuff the ballot box,'' Gargan said in an interview. ''My personal concern is that someone who has either a pocket full of money or a very large personal following could stuff it. It could really be trouble. We are leaving ourselves open for mischief.''
The expense of verifying voters is enormous, Gargan said. ''We will have no way of knowing whether they are in an insane asylum or in prison or 13 years old,'' he said.
But Russell Verney, the Reform Party's outgoing chairman, defended the nomination process. Allowing any eligible voter to participate is ''the most ingenious party-building policy we have ever come up with,'' Verney said.
Reform Party members do not control the selection of their nominee. Instead, any registered voter, including those who have already voted in a Democratic or Republican primary, will be allowed to cast a ballot for a candidate in the party's national primary next summer. As a result, there is no way of knowing how committed the nominee will be to the Reform Party's agenda.
Buchanan said Sunday he will make a decision next month about joining the Reform Party, but he left little doubt, saying, ''Our bags are packed.'' That is welcome news to Forbes, whose economic message is expected to attract some Buchanan followers. Other candidates, such as Gary Bauer and Dan Quayle, are certain to seek support from Buchananites, especially those who oppose abortion.
Buchanan's departure, however, would probably be bad news to the Bush campaign. Buchanan campaigned in 1992 against Bush's father, then-President Bush and harmed his standing in the primaries. And Ross Perot, who founded the Reform Party, in the general election received 19 percent of the vote, which many Bush aides still believe cost the president reelection. George W. Bush, the Texas governor, in recent weeks has urged Buchanan to remain in the Republican Party.
If Buchanan becomes the Reform Party nominee and Bush is the Republican candidate, Buchanan could take away 10 points or more from Bush in a general election, according to some polls. Still, Buchanan does not have a lock on the Reform Party nomination, and the former Nixon and Reagan aide is seen by some as an interloper interested more in the party's cash than its platform. The Reform Party nominee will be entitled to $13 million in federal campaign funds.
But that money, and the ready-made apparatus of the Reform Party, could attract other candidates, with rumors flying about everyone from former Connecticut governor Lowell Weicker to actor Warren Beatty to New York City developer Donald Trump. Perot, who ran unsuccessfully for president in 1992 and 1996, has not indicated whether he will seek the Reform Party nomination again in 2000.
Minnesota Governor Jesse Ventura, the top elected official of the Reform Party, has said Buchanan's emphasis on antiabortion views and other social issues is not in synch with the party, which focuses on economic matters. But Buchanan's rejection of free-trade policies such as the North American Free Trade Agreement is party gospel.
At Buchanan's campaign headquarters in Manchester, N.H., state chairman Shelly Yuscinski said the calls yesterday were running 24-to-1 in favor of Buchanan seeking the Reform Party nomination. ''Folks are looking at this with some anticipation,'' she said.
But on the Dan Pierce radio show on Manchester's WGIR-AM, most callers criticized Buchanan. Pierce, paraphrasing Buchanan's campaign slogan, said the message was ''Go, Pat, go, and good riddance. These are folks that perceive him as weakening George Bush in '92 and Bob Dole in '96 and allowing that fellow, Bill Clinton, to win the election.''
Pierce said Buchanan's following is much smaller now than in 1996, primarily because of New Hampshire's economic prosperity. The state has a 2.5 percent unemployment rate, which has considerably toned down the voter anger that Buchanan tapped in the 1996 primary.
