JOHN ELLIS

Buchanan's strengths

By John Ellis, Globe Staff, March 4, 1999

The verdict on Pat Buchanan's third try for the Republican presidential nomination is in and it's unanimous. He's all washed up. The talking heads say so, the press says so, even former supporters say his time has come and gone. The question arises: How can they be so sure? The answer is: They don't know what they're talking about.

Underestimating Pat Buchanan is always a mistake. President Bush (who is my uncle) did it in 1992, to his everlasting regret. Bob Dole did it in 1996, and his primary campaign all but ran out of money as a result. Whatever one thinks of him, Buchanan continues to be a formidable force in Republican Party politics.

This time he is the most experienced candidate in the field. By virtue of his two previous campaigns, he enjoys something approaching 100 percent name recognition among primary voters and caucus attenders. That's an asset that money can buy but that Buchanan no longer need acquire.

He is an accomplished campaigner and knows how to run a multistate campaign on short money and rechargeable cell phones. He lives off the land, using radio and TV talk shows to spread the message. Because he is such a lively and entertaining guest (as well as a serious commentator), he is a favorite among the producers and bookers of such shows.

Buchanan has a strategy, which is not much different from his 1996 campaign plan. He expects that Forbes will spend millions of dollars on negative campaign commercials cutting George W. Bush down to size. This will have its effect on Bush and Forbes and will enable Buchanan to seize the ideological high ground and remain competitive in the early going. He won New Hampshire last time with less than 30 percent of the vote.

Buchanan knows better than anyone in the Republican field the ideological dynamics of GOP presidential primary politics. He has been speaking about conservative issues for more than 30 years. He doesn't need a pollster to tell him which issues hit the hot buttons of which constituencies within the party's culturally conservative base. He feels their resentments in his bones.

In the age of the inauthentic politician, Buchanan is the real thing. He believes most of what he says and is unafraid to say it. What he will say in this presidential campaign will resonate because the issues that he raises are real issues facing the country.

The global economy really does change our notions of sovereignty, borders, and identity. Washington really is a sinkhole of corruption. The Republican Party really has not kept faith with its most devoted constituencies. And the likelihood is that these concerns will grow more urgent over the next 12 months.

Consider the issue of tax cuts, a core GOP issue. Buchanan proposes a $1 trillion tax cut. The GOP congressional leadership's response is that a tax cut may not be in the cards this year. Indeed, Sunday's New York Times reported that GOP congressional leaders were working to remove congressional spending restraints that have been in place since 1990. The truth is that GOP leaders would like to spend more taxpayer money, not have less to spend. Buchanan will hammer this issue, and he will be right.

Consider foreign aid. Buchanan has consistently opposed US support for IMF bailouts in emerging market countries. He opposed the Mexican bailout. He vehemently opposed the Russian bailout. He argued that American tax dollars should be spent helping Americans, not bailing out financial elites. This issue may well dominate the early stages of the 2000 presidential campaign.

Virtually every emerging market country is unprepared to deal with the Year 2000 computer crisis that looms larger every day. If the Y2K computer crisis causes even modest disruptions in the economies of emerging market countries, foreign capital will evacuate those markets with astonishing speed. This could quickly lead to a global financial crisis, with America being asked to help execute 8 or 10 Mexican-sized bailouts simultaneously. That would add up to $450 billion worth of bailouts. Does anyone think Buchanan's message, under these circumstances, would fall on deaf ears?

Consider the issue of impeachment. Everybody, it is said, wants to put the impeachment issue behind us. Republican primary voters, particularly cultural conservatives, don't feel that way at all. They're angry that Clinton wasn't convicted. They're angry that Juanita Broaddrick's charge of rape has been swept under the rug. Among presidential candidates, Buchanan's voice has been the most consistent on the issue of Clinton's conduct. And he will not duck it. It will be a centerpiece of his campaign.

People who dismiss Buchanan's 2000 campaign wish that it would simply go away. It will not go away. It will gather strength in the months ahead, and it will be formidable in Louisiana, Alaska, Iowa, and New Hampshire. Those are the first four states on the primary and caucus calendar. Buchanan won three of them in 1996.