ANCHESTER, N.H. - They are the great unknown of the New Hampshire presidential primary.
Suspicious of organized political parties, wary of establishment candidates, and not easily corralled, independent voters in New Hampshire usually don't make up their minds until the very last minute. To make things more complicated for campaign strategists, independents can cast a ballot in either the Democratic or Republican primary come Feb. 1.
This X factor in the race for president looms all the larger for the two Democrats and six Republicans because the ranks of ''undeclared'' voters have recently grown so rapidly that they are expected to outnumber registered Democrats and registered Republicans for the primary, according to the New Hampshire secretary of state's office.
''Every campaign is going to have to reach those people,'' said Patrick W. Griffin, a Republican media strategist who is helping Texas Governor George W. Bush. ''Independents are going to be extraordinarily important.''
As of November 1998, there were 272,134 undeclared voters in the state, compared with 272,217 registered Republicans and 203,257 registered Democrats. William Gardner, the secretary of state, has been polling local election officials and believes that independent registrants are now the largest voting bloc in New Hampshire.
Typical of many independent voters is Anna Armstrong, a retired schoolteacher from Manchester, who prefers to consider the person, not the party, when making up her mind.
''I think we should listen to all sides and listen to what they have to say,'' said Armstrong, after spending an afternoon hearing Vice President Al Gore at a question-and-answer session recently. ''I know people who are one thing because their parents were. They don't listen to anything, the party makes all the difference.''
Armstrong, who was a registered Democrat before New Hampshire allowed voters to register without a party affiliation, is intrigued by the three candidates with national experience: Gore, former Democratic senator Bill Bradley, and Republican Senator John McCain. In the 1996 primary, she voted for President Clinton.
Todd Watts, a salesman for Wonderbread in Manchester, is also an independent and shares many of Armstrong's feelings about political parties. ''I don't feel that any party has all the answers,'' said Watts, who voted the libertarian ticket in 1996. This time, he's interested in Gore, McCain, and Bush.
But while Armstrong, Watts, and other independents reject the Democratic or Republican party labels, they rarely vote en masse, tipping the balance of an election one way or another. Many analysts suspect - though there is no solid research to back it up - that the number of independents has grown because of an influx of new residents, many of them Massachusetts emigres. They also believe that independents, once thought to tend to vote Republican, are now more willing to vote in the Democratic primary.
Still, independents are far less likely to vote than people who consider themselves Democrats or Republicans.
''Anytime somebody is listed as independent or nonpartisan, it's usually a reflection of a lower interest in politics,'' said Andy Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.
Smith and other pollsters have found that independents seem to be drawn this year to a few particular candidates. McCain is popular among independents who lean Republican. Bradley, who used to represent New Jersey in the Senate, draws well among independents who lean toward the Democratic side of the spectrum.
In recent polls, independents have given Bradley the edge over Gore. Gore, for example, was favored among registered Democrats 50 percent to 39 percent in Smith's last sample. Bradley, however, edged Gore 44 to 42 percent among independents.
For Bradley to win the primary, Smith said, he will have to continue to enjoy strong support among independents, and the independents will have to turn out and vote. But Smith said Bradley has demographics on his side. His supporters tend to be older, with more education and a higher income than Gore's backers, who tend to be younger, blue-collar voters who may or may not have completed high school.
''Bradley's got the people who actually show up and vote,'' Smith said.
In a recent Franklin Pierce College/WNDS-TV poll, McCain led Bush among independents, 33 percent to 25 percent. Bush, however, still drew better among Republicans, giving him an eight-point lead against McCain, 38 percent to 30 percent.
This year, there is no single issue galvanizing independent voters. In fact, the topics are much like other voters in their interests: education, health care, Social Security and Medicare, crime, and taxes.
''They just seem to be motivated a little less by any issue than Republicans or Democrats and there doesn't seem to be any issue that's pushing their buttons,'' Smith said.
In 1996, Patrick J. Buchanan managed to push their buttons with his protectionist trade policy and fiscal conservatism. By snatching the independent vote late in the game, Buchanan edged out Bob Dole and Lamar Alexander to win the primary in the final days. Independents also gravitated toward Buchanan in 1992, hurting former President Bush.
''One of the things independents hate is a politician,'' said Griffin, alluding to Bush's difficulties in 1992 and Gore's problems this season. ''Albert Gore is the antithesis of an independent's candidate - he's big, he's party, he's the endorsement machine.''
In their own way, each of the campaigns are making appeals to the independent voters. George W. Bush is trying to broaden his support outside mainstream Republicans by taking issue with votes by the GOP Congress. Gore is picking up on some of Bradley's rhetoric, talking about running ''a different kind of campaign,'' and challenging Bradley to debates, as if Bradley were the front-running, establishment candidate. And McCain, Gore, and Bradley are striving for as many individual conversations with voters as they can squeeze in.
''What's great about the New Hampshire primary is the state is two congressional districts - we can talk to everybody, so you get to make an appeal to everybody,'' said Mark Longabaugh, Bradley's New Hampshire director.
There is always the danger, however, of annoying these voters who profess so little patience for conventional political appeals.
''Independents are going to become weary of everyone trying to pander to them,'' Griffin said. ''Independents are independent because they're independent. They wait late and break late.''
