CHARLESTON, S.C. - With the Republican presidential nomination possibly hanging in the balance, George W. Bush and John McCain both used the final day of campaigning before today's primary to seek support from Democrats and independents even as each confidently claimed to be the best person to beat the Democratic nominee this fall.
''I'm going to win tomorrow, I believe that,'' Bush said at a rally in Clinton yesterday, after belittling as ''weak-kneed'' some former supporters who switched this week to McCain.
Bush, on a local television broadcast last night, made one of his most overt appeals yet for Democrats to support him in the primary, saying he had always enjoyed strong support from conservative Democrats when running in Texas. But he also repeated his concern that Democrats will flood the primary with support for McCain.
McCain, whose hopes hinge on that flood tide from outside Republican ranks, was equally confident.
''When we win tomorrow, there's no way we can be stopped,'' McCain told more than 2,000 people at the College of Charleston in one of the most raucous rallies of his campaign.
A third candidate, Alan Keyes, who has been in low single digits in the polls, campaigned in the upstate region, with the size of his vote a potential factor in a close race.
With polls variously showing that the contest is a dead heat or that Bush is ahead, the race could well be decided not on a specific issue but on the shifting perceptions of Bush and McCain.
Bush, once considered the inevitable nominee, has been fighting since his defeat in the New Hampshire primary to retain the backing of the party establishment, even though lately he has been bashing the party ''insiders.'' The Bush campaigners fear a loss here could undercut their hopes in the primary states that follow - many of them open-primary states like South Carolina - and prompt party leaders to reconsider the viability of his candidacy.
McCain, who rose rapidly in the polls largely because of his reformer image and his life story as a former Vietnam prisoner of war, has portrayed himself lately as the new face of the Republican Party. In his appeal to voters here, he is walking a fine line between seeking the votes of liberals and moderates while assuring conservatives who dominate the Republican Party that he is one of them.
In an ironic twist to the election, the effort by the establishment of the South Carolina Republican Party to attract new members by allowing anyone to vote in the GOP primary could open the door for a McCain victory. Signs are posted outside McCain rallies that say: ''Democrats and Independents: Vote for McCain Feb. 19.''
Predictions varied wildly about how many independents and Democrats would turn out. As McCain and Bush talk about defeating the Democratic nominee and reveal positions that are out of synch with the Democratic Party, they may persuade most Democrats to stay home. It also remains, at best, an open question whether black Democrats, a bulwark of the Democratic Party here, will vote in significant numbers, particularly since Bush and McCain have stayed clear of a touchstone issue for many blacks: whether the Confederate flag should fly over the South Carolina State House.
The polls are open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. With voting on a Saturday, and with the enormous publicity the primary has won, expectations are for a record turnout. In 1996, the primary voter turnout was 276,000. Republican Party officials said the turnout this time could be over 400,000, especially if independents and Democrats vote in large numbers. Preparing for any contingency, the Republican Party has printed 1 million ballots.
McCain clearly is hoping for such a large turnout, since his success depends on a big showing of non-Republicans.
''I say to independents, Democrats, Libertarians, vegetarians, come on over, vote for me!'' McCain said at the College of Charleston rally, where a swirl of convention-style confetti rained down on the senator after his speech inside a packed, old gymnasium.
If absentee ballots are an indication, voter turnout will be heavy. In some areas, including Charleston County, election officials reported that requests for the ballots were more than twice as heavy as four years ago. And today's weather is forecast to be cloudy with a slight chance of rain, heartening McCain supporters who were worried by earlier predictions of a downpour.
Meanwhile, both Bush and McCain have been drawing large, enthusiastic crowds as they traveled the seacoast from Hilton Head to Myrtle Beach, and to the booming belt upstate that includes Greenville and Spartanburg.
Bush's appeal was apparent when he appeared earlier this week at Pawleys Island, in the Tara ballroom at a massive development called Litchfield Beach and Golf Resort. Bush, fairly shouting out his campaign vows, told the packed crowd of about 800 that he wasn't conceding the veterans' vote to McCain.
''I'm running against a veteran. I'm one, too,'' said Bush, who served in the Texas Air National Guard and did not see combat duty or go to Vietnam. Bush told MSNBC-TV this week that he had not read any book about McCain's ordeal as a POW, including McCain's best-selling autobiography.
Bush's comment about being a veteran underscores what seems a pattern here - this will be a vote driven more by the character traits of the candidates than by their disagreements on issues.
When voters were randomly interviewed across the state, it was the rare South Carolinian who said he liked one candidate or the other mostly because of a specific issue. Instead, residents often said they like Bush because they admire his father and his values, or that they like McCain because of his independence and his courage as a prisoner of war.
Ron Breznicky, asked whether there was any issue that led him to back Bush, responded: ''None, really. I still think we are feeding off the economy that his dad had a lot to do with.''
Bush, who for months repeated his mantra that he was a ''compassionate conservative'' who wanted to cut taxes, has spent much of the past week describing himself as a ''reformer with results,'' an effort to steal some of McCain's thunder on the issue. Bush unveiled a repackaged campaign reform plan that banned unlimited contributions by corporations to political parties. Bush also sought to turn the tables on the man he called ''Chairman McCain,'' saying that the Arizona senator violated the spirit of campaign laws by ''rolling over'' more than $2 million from his Senate campaign to his presidential effort.
When making that charge, Bush does not mention that he has chosen to bypass the federal spending limits by rejecting federal matching funds, which has enabled him to collect more than $70 million. But to the consternation of some of his supporters, Bush has already spent about $50 million even though today's primary is only the fourth contest of the campaign. If Bush loses today, he may find that his fund-raising prowess will diminish as McCain continues to gain financial strength through Internet-based contributions.
The Bush attacks on McCain, made over the airwaves on radio and television and in leaflets tucked under automobile windshield wipers, appeared to be having some impact.
''McCain says he has been an insider and he's been there for 18 years, so what's he doing?'' said Miriam Servant, of Pawleys Island, echoing an attack made by Bush himself.
But Bush's potential problem was apparent down the coast in the tiny fishing village of McClellanville. In random interviews at Buster's Porchside Dining, people invariably said they were attracted to McCain by his life story as a former Vietnam prisoner of war.
''A lot of'' Bush's support ''is Daddy's family name, a lot of people think that,'' said Chauncey Densmore, an independent who plans to vote for McCain. Asked why he is backing McCain, Densmore, a carpenter, gave an answer echoed by many people interviewed in South Carolina: ''It's just character in general.''
The McCain campaign well understands that the candidate's appeal is based greatly on the 51/2 years he spent as a prisoner of war. Throughout Charleston yesterday, windshield wipers and doorknobs were outfitted with flyers titled ''The John McCain story.'' The campaign's ads, targeted to this state's heavy veteran population, show McCain as a prisoner in Vietnam, and posters at every rally are filled with the words ''courage,'' ''integrity'' and ''honor.''
For many Republicans, the key question in the election is whether Bush or McCain stands a better chance of beating the Democrat in the general election. Bush maintained that the Democratic establishment was urging party members to support McCain because the Democrats don't want to face Bush in the fall. But McCain, citing polls that showed him with a large lead in a matchup with Vice President Al Gore, says he will be a stronger GOP candidate.
Material from the Associated Press was used in this report.
