Bush, McCain need each other

By David M. Shribman, Globe Columnist, 4/4/2000

ETTYSBURG, Pa. - Richard M. Nixon had Nelson A. Rockefeller. Gerald R. Ford had Ronald Reagan. Michael S. Dukakis had Jesse L. Jackson. And George W. Bush has John McCain.

Presidential candidates win nominations by cleaning up in the delegate race. But then they often find themselves with a cleanup effort of a monumental scale.

Governor Bush doesn't have to worry about today's primary here in Pennsylvania - or the June primary in New Jersey - but he still faces a difficult test that will reveal as much about his political skills as another round of primaries would. Before he turns fully to the task of wooing tens of millions of voters in the general election, he must win the hand of (or at least a grudging handshake from) McCain.

Not `Miss Congeniality'

Right now, McCain is willing but not eager to go along. He knows that if Bush does not prevail in November - and McCain's strategists think there is a 60 percent chance Bush will lose - McCain's claim to be the GOP front-runner for 2004 depends on his comportment for the remainder of the year. In more than 100 New Hampshire town meetings, the Arizona Republican boasted about his failure to win the ''Miss Congeniality'' prize in the Senate. His prospects in 2004 depend on winning (the confidence of Bush), placing (his reputation on the line for the GOP ticket in the fall) and showing (his loyalty to the party) in the Miss Congeniality sweepstakes in the next several months.

The two men talked last week and the discussions were slightly less contentious than those between President Clinton and Hafez Assad of Syria. In diplomatic-speak, they were not cordial but correct. There remain several issues, including Bush's willingness to budge on campaign-finance reform (unlikely) and his willingness to cease strong-arming local Bush supporters into convention-delegate slots properly won by McCain (likely).

In the end, the two men will never see eye to eye. But they will see an advantage to working together, or at least not at cross-purposes. McCain has toned down his Darth Vader rhetoric. Bush has stopped rubbing in the fact that he beat McCain on Super Tuesday like a dusty rug on a clothes line. Bush would like an endorsement from McCain. (Bush argument: You say you're a loyal Republican. Show it.) McCain would like a prominent speaking role at the Philadelphia convention. (McCain argument: I'm the most popular Republican out there. Make me the keynote speaker.)

More than half of the nation's Republicans believe McCain should endorse Bush; only an eighth of them believe he should run as a third-party candidate, according to the latest CBS News poll. An endorsement is likely. When Opinion Dynamics and Fox News asked a sample of 900 voters who should be the GOP vice presidential nominee, 27 percent said McCain, with former Red Cross president Elizabeth H. Dole a distant second. A vice presidential bid for McCain is not likely.

No inclinations

Bush isn't inclined to choose McCain, and McCain isn't inclined to accept. Said one of McCain's closest confidants: ''I would bet on the sun falling from the sky on Chicago before I'd bet on that.''

Despite commentary to the contrary, stranger things have not happened. Senator John F. Kennedy's offer of the vice presidential slot to Senate majority leader Lyndon B. Johnson, the example cited most frequently, didn't follow nearly as bitter a nomination fight as the one McCain and Bush just completed.

The McCain forces understand that Bush will probably not embrace their reform agenda. Top McCain advisers are prepared for that blow and say they can live with it. A possible issue compromise: Bush adoption of the McCain Social Security and tax blueprint. Bush might be criticized for abandoning his own plan, but congressional Republicans have already pronounced it dead-on-arrival; they wouldn't touch it in this spring's budget negotiations.

But it's not the issues in the relationship that will matter most. It is the tissue of the relationship.

McCain and his strategists will offer rapprochement in return for respect. They want Bush and his team to acknowledge that McCain has the capacity to bring new voters into the GOP. They want Bush to understand that McCain can help the party without taking it over. They want Bush to understand that the McCain immigrants are a blessing and not a threat. They want Bush to enlist McCain in the battle, not treat him like a porcupine.

The other day, Representative Thomas M. Davis III of Virginia, who heads the National Republican Congressional Committee, circulated a memo urging Republicans to ''open their arms to these independent and like-minded Democrat voters and let them know they are welcome in the family.'' McCain strategists are waiting to hear those very words issue forth from Austin.