Bush Cramming before campaigning

By Michael Kranish, Globe Staff, June 6, 1999

WASHINGTON -- Governor George W. Bush of Texas recently sent an urgent e-mail message to his top foreign-affairs adviser: What is this dispute in East Timor all about?

The adviser, Condoleezza Rice, had to scramble to explain the fighting in the former Portuguese colony to gain independence from Indonesia.

The request was hardly unusual.

Every few days, Rice and other advisers receive missives from the man who's taking the cram course of a lifetime, preparing to be a Republican presidential candidate, and, if successful, president of the United States.

In an effort to explore all topics, foreign and domestic, Bush has convened meetings with advisers on everything from gasoline additives to tax cuts.

Now, after months of buildup, perhaps comparable to the release of the latest Star Wars movie, the front-runner is about to be tested. He travels this week to Iowa, New Hampshire, Maine, and Boston.

For four days, the public and press will try to pin Bush down on everything from farm policy to foreign policy. And there may be queries on his now-famously oblique admission: "When I was young and irresponsible, I was young and irresponsible."

"We are just trying to anticipate as many potential feeding frenzies as we can," said David Beckwith, a Bush media adviser who participated in a series of preparation sessions with the governor last week.

"It is not a question of whether there will be a feeding frenzy. You can stomp out 999 of them, and I guess it is worthwhile to do so. But that doesn't mean the 1,000th isn't going to envelop you."

Beckwith, who was press secretary for Vice President Dan Quayle when George H. W. Bush was in office, said half-jokingly that the best preparation for George W. Bush might be "to put him in a room and have a couple of hundred people start screaming at him."

Although Bush the younger technically is still "exploring" a candidacy, aides said there is no doubt that he is running.

So far, Bush has been the proverbial "empty vessel," and many people of all political persuasions have poured in their hopes and dreams for the type of person who will win the White House. The danger for Bush is that as he defines himself on an array of issues, some people might be disappointed.

"We recognize that it is a real challenge that we have to go from zero to 60 in two seconds," said a Bush adviser, Mark McKinnon. "The expectations are exponentially high, and it will be very difficult to meet the expectations."

Bush's advisers even wonder how the governor's laid-back public manner might resonate on the stump. At a news conference last Tuesday, which was broadcast on CNN, his performance seemed underwhelming as Bush extolled the Texas Legislature's approval of education and tax-cut proposals, which he now plans to highlight on the campaign trail.

Bush does not have to worry just yet about East Timor. He also has to be familiar with an array of issues important to Iowa and New Hampshire, such as hog prices, ethanol, and education taxes, since those two states hold the first caucus and primary early next year.

But the two states may be almost as foreign to the governor of Texas as East Timor. Bush recently said he could not recall the last time he was in New Hampshire, but it was probably during his father's campaign in 1992. By contrast, many of Bush's opponents have practically made New Hampshire their second home.

Bush has been preparing for the campaign trail by holding meetings with groups headed by three key advisers: Rice on foreign policy, former Federal Reserve Board member Lawrence Lindsey on economics, and Mayor Stephen Goldsmith of Indianapolis on domestic issues.

The meetings usually last three hours, and the advisers usually present Bush with outlines of key issues and a set of various positions on each. Bush takes notes, asks questions, and often follows up by sending newspaper articles and op-ed pieces to the advisers.

"He has basically asked me to convene the best and the brightest thinkers whose views and principles are consistent with his, and to look at bold ideas that would help the country," Goldsmith said. "Many of them fit inside his philosophy of 'compassionate conservatism.' "

While Bush is taking courses on everything from economics to the environment, he is not necessarily forming policies he will outline on this trip. Instead, Bush hopes to spell out his general philosophy and explain the specifics much later, a strategy the governor realizes could lead to criticism that he is vague.

"You got to understand that campaigns evolve," Bush said in a recent interview in Austin, Texas. "I will be asked to comment on a lot of issues as I campaign. Sometimes the press corps want a candidate to lay all their policy cards at one time. Candidates, campaigns, on the other hand, have a cycle. The constituency is really the electorate as opposed to those who are following the campaign in the press corps. I understand there will be some tension: 'Why won't he talk about this issue now?' But that is how campaigns evolve."

Bush lacks some credentials that Republican presidential candidates have often been able to offer. For example, he has little foreign-policy experience, in vivid contrast to his father, who was CIA director and US ambassador to China. Brent Scowcroft, who was President Bush's national security adviser, said the younger Bush's main experience "was being around when his father was in his many different jobs. . . . Is he comfortable with foreign policy? I would say not."

But Rice, who also served as President Bush's special assistant for national security affairs, said the governor has had more instruction in foreign affairs than many might realize.

"He certainly doesn't have a great deal of foreign affairs experience," Rice said. "He would be the first to say that. But you can underestimate the amount of foreign affairs experience a governor of a big border state has. I've been impressed with his ability to understand and translate that into a whole set of issues."

On Friday, at a meeting with his foreign policy team, Bush surprised some aides by talking for about three-fourths of the session. This contrasted with previous meetings, in which he had a tendency to pose questions. The aides took this as a sign that Bush is feeling more comfortable on the issues.

At one point, according to a participant, an adviser asked Bush whether he could back a Kosovo peace plan that leaves Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic in power. Bush, referring to the indictment of Milosevic as a war criminal, responded with a joke: "Let's have a ceremony celebrating the peace plan in The Hague, and make sure he gets an invitation."

One issue for Bush has been to clarify his plan to cut taxes. Meeting with his economic advisers, Bush has asked many questions about a flat tax, an idea backed by several of his rivals, but a thought he fears will be viewed as too favorable to the rich.

According to one top aide, Bush has requested a plan that would mostly help the middle class. But he has left the tax issue unresolved for now.

Bush also has rebuffed demands from some New Hampshire Republicans that he sign a pledge against raising new taxes. Mindful of how his father was defeated in 1992 after breaking his pledge: "Read my lips, no new taxes," the governor has told aides that he does not plan to sign any pledges other than one in favor of New Hampshire's retaining its first-primary status.

"We don't sign pledges," said a Bush chief strategist, Karl Rove. "When people ask us to sign a pledge, we generally sign a letter stating where we are."

Former Representative Gerald R. Solomon of New York, who organized a committee to draft Bush to run, cautioned that the path ahead will be difficult.

"What is unique about this whole thing is we have 125 committed members of Congress behind someone who is not a sitting vice president, who is not in an anointed position," Solomon said. "It is hard to believe we have been this successful."

Now, Solomon said, "He needs to get in the fray and get himself attuned before a coming hard campaign."

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