OS ANGELES - In 1992, President George Bush took stock of his poll numbers and made a mid-campaign decision: Admit defeat early in California and devote time and money to states where he stood a better chance.
Four years later, Bob Dole came to the same conclusion. And now, with every indicator suggesting that George W. Bush is likely to lose here, many analysts, and some Republicans, are voicing bewilderment that the Texas governor has not followed predecessors' footsteps.
Bush, in a dead heat nationally with Vice President Al Gore, is refusing to give up in California. Although his campaign has diverted much money to key states in the Midwest and East, the Texas governor spent two days in California this week, insisting he can win.
And although his California schedule included more fund-raisers than rallies, suggesting that he was not primarily here to win votes, Bush appears to recognize what his father did not: California is much more than its 54 electoral votes. It is a symbolic political battleground.
Now home to one-eighth of the population of the United States, the state sends more people to Congress than any other. This year, the stakes are especially high: Five of the most hotly contested seats are here, and those five could determine control of the entire US House.
To help their cause, California Republican Party officials have made this a mandatory stop on the campaign trail, raising millions for the GOP candidate. And Bush, conscious of the message he would send if he were to avoid California, has played along, well past the date many people thought he would stop coming.
''If the question is: Is he using his time wisely trying to win California? Then the answer is no,'' said Bruce Cain, director of the Institute of Government Studies at the University of California at Berkeley. ''By any logic, if it was purely an electoral consideration, he would be spending zero here ... If the question is: Is he doing the right thing by the state party? The answer is yes.''
Bush also stands to benefit from the relationship. And not just in donations, including the estimated $1.4 million he received this week. By keeping hope alive in California, Bush also continues to look like a national candidate, rather than one trying to cobble together an electoral majority from conservative states.
''Clearly, California is a symbolic state for the rest of the nation,'' said Scott Reed, who ran the campaign of Dole, the former Senate majority leader, in 1996. ''Remember back to the '92 lesson, in August, where the Bush campaign bragged about pulling out of California? That was a devastating move.''
Bush's campaigning this week in Western states that traditionally favor Democrats raised eyebrows in Republican circles and among political analysts. After stops in suburban Portland, Ore., and Spokane, Wash., Bush spent 36 hours in California before returning to Texas last night. He is to leave for the Midwest today.
''They'd be better spending time in the Midwest,'' a Republican strategist said on condition of not being named. ''You don't run a 40-state strategy. You have to hunt ducks where the ducks are.''
Bush has promised not to follow in the footsteps of Republican candidates who abandoned California early on. After the GOP convention, Bush took a train trip up the California coast, signaling that he would fight for the state.
In that August visit, Bush stopped in several Republican strongholds and in swing districts such as Orange County and San Luis Obispo.
This week, he went to Silicon Valley and Los Angeles, two of the most liberal areas of the country, places where Bush has no chance of winning, political analysts said. Cain called the stops ''electorally wasted areas.''
Recent polls have suggested that the entire state will be an uphill battle for Bush. The latest, conducted by the San Francisco Examiner and KTVU-TV, and released Sunday, found Gore leading Bush, 50 percent to 38 percent. That was an increase for Gore, who had led by 7 percentage points in July.
Apparently thinking of earlier polls, Bush has expressed optimism of late about his chances. ''I'm going to win California. I am. Please don't fall out of your chair,'' Bush said Tuesday night on CNN's ''Larry King Live.''
Bush's communications director, Karen Hughes, played down the poll results. ''I know that some of the polls a couple of weeks ago showed us behind in double digits, but we've also seen in the last couple weeks how quickly polls change,'' she said.
The California Republican Party, hurt by a backlash against former Governor Pete Wilson and by shifting demographics, needs support, some strategists said. And Bush, in turn, appears to need their success. ''Bush has no chance of winning California, but one in eight House members lives in California,'' said Dane Strother, a Democratic strategist and consultant. ''George Bush's worst nightmare is that he loses and the House turns Democratic.''
Another nightmare, Cain said, is that the Republican Party in California collapses entirely. Moreover, the Texas governor has reason to feel a debt of gratitude to the minority that has tried to help him here. ''For all those Republicans who traipsed on down in the early months to kiss his ring, the least the guy can do,'' Cain said, ''is spend some time here.''
