Bush expands edge in Reuters poll

By Alan Eisner, Reuters, 10/29/00

WASHINGTON -- Republican George W. Bush held a three-point lead over Democrat Al Gore in Sunday's Reuters/MSNBC national daily tracking poll, but separate surveys of nine key battleground states showed the race could still go either way.

The national survey of 1,213 likely voters in the Nov. 7 election, conducted Thursday to Sunday by pollster John Zogby, found the Texas governor with 45 percent and the vice president with 42 percent. On Saturday, Bush led Gore by 44 percent to 43 percent. Nine days remain until the Nov. 7 election.

Green Party nominee Ralph Nader polled 5 percent; Reform Party candidate Pat Buchanan stayed at 1 percent; Libertarian Harry Browne had 1 percent, and the rest remained undecided.

The race remained well within the statistical margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points. A candidate would have to be more than six points in the lead to be outside that zone of uncertainty -- something neither man has achieved since the poll began on Sept. 29.

In the equally tight race for the House of Representatives, voters preferred the Democrats by one point. The Democrats need a net gain of seven seats to regain control from the Republicans.

In a race this close, national polls cannot predict a winner because the election is likely to be decided in key swing states. Reuters and MSNBC began publishing daily tracking polls in nine such battleground states Sunday.

The results showed either man could win the election. Gore led by seven percentage points in Florida, which most analysts believe is a must-win state for Bush.

Gore also had a nine-point lead in Wisconsin and a seven-point lead in Illinois. He was narrowly ahead in Washington state and Michigan.

Bush had a nine-point lead in Gore's home state of Tennessee and narrow leads in Pennsylvania and Missouri. He led by six points in Ohio.

In total, 153 votes in the Electoral College are up for grabs in those nine states. At the moment, Gore would win 87 and Bush would take 66 of those votes.

A total of 270 electoral votes are needed to be elected president. Most analysts believe both candidates have definitely secured about 200, leaving some 138 to be fought over.

In the national poll, 81 percent said they were unlikely to change their minds before Election Day. Thirty-nine percent have ruled out voting for Bush and 44 percent for Gore.

Respondents were asked whether they liked and respected the candidates. Fifty-six percent liked Gore and 39 percent did not. Sixty-one percent liked Bush; 32 percent said no.

Bush had an edge on respect, with 72 percent saying they respected him, against 64 percent who said they respected Gore. Only 23 percent said they did not respect Bush; 32 percent said they did not respect Gore.

Men backed Bush, 52-34 percent; women preferred Gore by 49-39 percent as the electorate continued to show a huge gender gap.

Reuters and MSNBC will release a new poll every day at 6:30 p.m. until the election.