When George W. Bush plotted his election strategy months ago, he plugged Florida into his sure-win category. After all, his brother Jeb was governor. Now, two months before Election Day, he's fighting for the state's 25 electoral votes.

"I'm going to carry Florida," Bush declared here Monday, knowing he probably can't win the presidency without the state.

Later, he reminded senior citizens that Jeb lost his first governor's race in 1994 after Democrats suggested he would undermine Social Security.

"Unless something has dramatically changed, the same old scare tactics politics will come into Florida," Bush said. "They'll be saying, 'When George W. becomes president, he'll take away your Social Security check.' Don't believe them."

His remarks suggested that, despite his public bravado, Bush is worried about Democrat Al Gore's surge in Florida. Independent political analysts and many Republicans say the governor took the state for granted for too long, squandering an opportunity to run Gore out of the state.

"That's a possibility," said former Republican Gov. Bob Martinez when asked whether Bush failed to take the state seriously enough. "I think we were slow getting ads up on TV, but now with the governor paying a visit this week we're in campaign mode."

Former GOP chairman Tom Slade said Bush allowed Gore to get the upper hand on issues important to senior citizens, such as Social Security and prescription drug coverage.

"We were whistling down the street thinking it would be a cruise and all of a sudden we're in a no-joke race," Slade said.

Bush held an edge over Gore in Florida before the nominating conventions in August. New private polls conducted by both parties show the race even or the vice president ahead now, just as Gore has tightened the race nationally.

Sharpening his rhetoric Monday, Bush said the vice president's prescription drug plan would force seniors into "government HMOs," give them one chance to enter the plan at age 64 and cost certain seniors more money than they currently pay.

"That's not fair and that's not right," he said.

Bush conducted a rare town hall-style meeting, fielding questions for more than 30 minutes at a community center.

Gone was his expensive sports coat, the imposing lectern and prepared text. He was a charmer, a joker. Even a kisser.

When a woman said she was praying that "God was going to make you a president," Bush rushed to her corner of the room and leaned across a row of seniors to reach her. She leaned across, too, and caressed Bush's face as he gave her a quick kiss.

A sigh went up in the room.

When a woman offered him Florida orange juice back stage, Bush declined.

"What?" Jeb said, reminding his brother that juice is the politically correct drink here.

"I'm orange-juiced out," Bush replied. He quickly added, "If I had orange juice, it would be Florida orange juice."

Bush even made light of his brother's ability to help win Florida.

"Don't blame it on my brother," Bush told reporters about recent polls showing the race a tossup in the state. "We're in good shape here. ... This is going to be a good state for me."

Analysts say the state's changing demographics and the addition of Joseph Lieberman, an orthodox Jew, to the Democratic ticket also helped fuel Gore's rise in Florida.

"Lieberman really made a difference with the Jews. Many were already for Gore, but now they're energized," said Marsha Matson, a political science instructor at the University of Miami.

Slade said some factors are out of Bush's hands, such as young Cuban Americans drifting to the Democratic Party. "With the end of the Cold War and Fidel Castro being less of a threat, they're taking a long look at Democrats," he said.

At the same time, Gore has rallied his base of black voters in the state and the Florida Democratic Party is resolving internal strife that hobbled candidates in 1998, Slade said.

Both state legislative bodies are Republican, as is the governor's office. The parties hold one seat each in the Senate, but Democrat Bill Nelson is leading the race to fill retiring Republican Connie Mack's seat.

President Clinton won Florida in 1996 after losing it in 1992 to Bush's father. With California and New York leaning toward the Democratic Party, Florida becomes a critical state for GOP candidates seeking 270 electoral votes.

Bush is spending several hundred thousand dollars for Florida TV ads, money that could be sent to Midwest battleground states if this state had been nailed down.

"I wish I knew why Bush isn't doing better," said pollster Randy Miller, expressing a sense of wonder coursing through the state. "I know he'd be better off spending his money elsewhere."