Bush gains victory in Delaware, a state McCain skipped; Forbes finishes 3d

By Michael Crowley and Anne E. Kornblut, Globe Staff, 2/9/2000

ILMINGTON, Del. - Texas Governor George W. Bush won a badly needed show of support from Delaware Republicans yesterday, finishing well ahead of his chief rival in what his campaign hopes will be a first step toward reclaiming momentum in the GOP presidential race.

DELAWARE RESULTS
Republicans
28 of 28 precincts reporting
Bush 51%
McCain 25%
Forbes 20%
Keyes 4%
Bauer 0%
hatch 0%
Percentages will not necessarily add to 100.

EXIT POLLING
How and why Delaware Republicans voted:
BUSH SUPPORTERS: Bush received much of his support from the middle class, self-described Republicans, conservatives, those who thought he can win and those who thought moral values were the top issue.
MCCAIN SUPPORTERS: McCain did better among the affluent, the better educated, independent-minded Republicans, moderates, abortion rights supporters and those who want a candidate who stands up for what he believes.
FORBES SUPPORTERS: Forbes supporters were more interested in issues than personal qualities, and thought taxes were the top issue. They thought it was important that a candidate stands up for what he believes and they said moral values was the top issue.
MOST LIKELY TO WIN IN NOVEMBER: About six in 10 voters said Bush was most likely to beat the Democratic candidate in November and about three-quarters of that group voted for Bush. About one-fourth said McCain was most likely to beat the Democratic nominee.
RELIGIOUS RIGHT: A fifth of the electorate said they were part of the religious right, and Bush got about half the support of that group and half of the three-fourths who said they were not. About a third of those who were not part of the religious right voted for McCain and about two in 10 voted for Forbes. Of those describing themselves as members of the religious right, about one-third voted for Forbes, and about one in 10 voted for McCain.
PARTY IDENTIFICATION: About eight in 10 described themselves as Republicans and about half of that group voted for Bush. McCain and Forbes each got the support of about two in 10 self-described Republicans.
IDEOLOGY: About six in 10 described themselves as politically conservative and about half of that group voted for Bush. About one-quarter of that group voted for Forbes and about two in 10 voted for McCain.
ATTACKS: About one-quarter of voters said McCain made unfair attacks on other candidates and about the same number said that of Forbes. About three-quarters of those groups voted for Bush. About one in six said Bush has unfairly attacked other candidates. Of the two-thirds who said he has not, about six in 10 of that group voted for Bush.
ISSUES OR QUALITIES: Voters split almost equally on whether their candidate's position on the issues or leadership and personal qualities mattered most. Bush led among both groups. Forbes got a third of the vote from those who thought issues mattered most in their choice, while McCain got a third from those who thought personal qualities mattered most.
ABORTION: Bush led among abortion opponents, a group courted by Forbes, and those who thought it should be legal.
DECIDED TO VOTE: About four in 10 voters said they decided to vote in the last week. About half of Forbes voters and half of McCain's voters made their decision in that period. Almost three fourths of Bush supporters made a decision before that.
AGE: About half of all voters were over age 60; Bush got a majority of their support.
VIEWS ON ECONOMY: As in the Delaware Democratic primary Saturday, voters overwhelmingly had a positive view of Delaware's economy and how their own family's financial situation compares to four years ago. And about three in four Republican voters said they believe the average American's standard of living will rise in the next 10 years; two-thirds of Democratic voters said that.
The exit poll results were from interviews of 697 Delaware Republican primary voters by Voter News Service, a consortium of The Associated Press and major television networks. The poll had an error margin of plus or minus 5 percentage points, larger for subgroups.

   

With his campaign reeling from a stinging loss to Arizona Senator John McCain in last week's New Hampshire primary, Bush dodged a potential humiliation here, and now heads into the Feb. 19 South Carolina primary on a more upbeat note.

But McCain claimed a victory of sorts as well, earning a quarter of the vote in a contest he all but ignored.

With all 28 precincts reporting, Bush won handily with 51 percent of the vote, while McCain placed second with 25 percent. Conservative publisher Steve Forbes finished third with 20 percent, a result which is bound to increase pressure on him to reconsider his campaign. Former ambassador Alan Keyes tallied 4 percent.

Bush collected a mere 12 delegates yesterday of the 1,034 delegates needed to win the party nomination. His victory, however, had significance. Another loss to McCain, who did not campaign or spend any money here, would have been a symbolic disaster for Bush.

Last night, Bush said he was ''honored'' by the vote, and again pressed his new theme that he is a more genuine reformer than McCain.

''My message I'm going to share with you is a message people heard. It's a message of being a reformer with results,'' Bush said at a dinner held by the South Carolina Association of Home Builders at Seawell's Restaurant in Columbia, S.C.

Bush told the Associated Press last night that the Delaware result was ''a piece of good news that will buoy our supporters.''

McCain, meanwhile, said he was pleased to finish a respectable second in a state where he ran no ads and did not campaign.

''I am extremely surprised and pleased that we get that kind of vote in a state we never visited,'' McCain said on his campaign bus in South Carolina last night. McCain also stressed his view that he remains the underdog in the race to nomination.

Delaware's primary was open to registered Republican voters only, depriving McCain of the independent votes that were crucial to his New Hampshire victory.

The results were another blow for Forbes, whose campaign has been flagging badly since he finished second in last month's Iowa caucuses and third in New Hampshire. The magazine publisher's third-place finish yesterday follows his 1996 victory here over eventual GOP nominee Bob Dole. He was, however, the only GOP candidate to actively seek the Delaware vote that year.

Forbes, who has spent more than $28 million of his own money on his candidacy, had spent more time campaigning here than any of his rivals.

Forbes has rejected calls that he consider dropping out of the race. Aides say he will run at least until a set of major primaries on March 7.

''Clearly, we would have liked to have done better. We will go on to Michigan and South Carolina and assess the situation as things move forward,'' campaign manager Bill Dal Col said last night.

Forbes himself had no immediate comment after the vote. But the candidate earlier this week suggested that Bush may have had an unfair advantage here. He complained that the Delaware GOP had made voting deliberately difficult as a way of aiding Bush, who enjoyed institutional support and fielded a substantial primary day organization.

Only 28 polling places were open statewide yesterday, and some voters were apparently confused about where to cast ballots. When Forbes asked Wilmington resident John Vella for his vote in a hotel cafeteria yesterday, Vella replied: ''If I can find the polls.''

''I went to the usual place and I just assumed it would be there, but it's not,'' Villa said. Forbes gave him a number to call for poll information.

Exit polls conducted by the Voter News Service showed that Bush did well among conservatives and middle-class voters, while McCain's support was rooted more among more affluent and better educated voters who see themselves as moderates and independent thinkers.

Bush did best among voters who said moral values were their biggest concern. McCain won among voters who said they wanted a candidate who stands up for his beliefs. Forbes voters tended to put a premium on ideas over character, and said taxes were their chief concern.

Exit polls also suggested McCain may have benefited from an explosion of publicity following his New Hampshire victory. Nearly half of McCain's supporters made up their minds in the past week.

In Columbia last night, Bush joked about McCain's fast-rising profile.

''I'm confident that the news media will put me on the cover of every one of the major news magazines,'' Bush added last night, referring to McCain's appearance this week on the covers of Time, Newsweek, and US News & World Report. The Bush campaign has suggested the news media is biased in favor of McCain.

Neither Bush nor Forbes stayed in Delaware for last night's results. Both men flew out of the state in the early afternoon, hours before the polls closed. Bush traveled to South Carolina. Forbes headed to Michigan, where Republicans vote Feb. 22.