lthough polls show that Vice President Al Gore and Texas Governor George W. Bush were in a virtual dead heat last week when they clinched the delegates needed for their parties' presidential nominations, Bush appears to have more obstacles in his path to the White House.
While retired rival Bill Bradley has endorsed Gore, Bush continues to have problems with his GOP challenger, US Senator John McCain. Based on various media reports, McCain's supporters said Bush will not get an early endorsement because he did not show enough respect for the senator in a New York Times interview. For example, when reminded of McCain's record turnouts in some of the primaries, Bush responded, ''Well, then, how come he didnt win?''
This and other remarks made by both GOP camps clearly suggest that Bush and McCain still strongly dislike each other, despite Bush's latest efforts to make amends. Now Bush, acutely aware of his need for endorsements by McCain and his supporters, has been praising McCain for running a good race and bringing forth new ideas.
But Bush's efforts to bring McCain and his independent voters into his camp could further alienate another potential candidate who could cause Bush more political pain: Patrick Buchanan, who is seeking the Reform Party's nod.
As Bush seeks to move toward the center in hopes of persuading more Democrats and independents to his side, Buchanan will be seeking to bring more of the religious right, which has been the base of Bush's support in the primaries, into his campaign. In a close presidential race, Buchanan's candidacy, while not expected to create a tight three-way race, could siphon off some crucial points Bush needs to beat Gore.
Thus, with Buchanan in the race, Bush will have a greater need to attract at least a clear majority of McCain supporters, which polls show are evenly split between him and Gore. And McCain believes he has enough political leverage to withhold his endorsement until he gets what he wants from Bush, which apparently includes Bush adopting his reform agenda. Right now, Bush said he does not support McCain's platform, but hopes they can agree on other issues.
Meanwhile, if Bush has McCain and possibly Buchanan pulling at his ankles in the race to the White House, Gore appears to have nothing, not even President Clinton's character flaws, to weigh him down. No doubt Bush has been talking frequently about Gore's 1996 und-raising in the Buddhist Temple, which has been under investigation. Recent reports suggest that, while his acts were not criminal, Gore has not been exonerated.
However, that issue, as much as Bush has referred to it, has so far not resonated with the electorate. And Gore might be successfully turning a negative issue into a positive one by stating that he learned from his mistakes and is now fully behind campaign finance reform. If Gore makes progress in luring most of the independents and the Democrats who supported McCain, Bush may be in serious trouble without McCain's backing. While McCain made it clear that he would never become Bush's running mate, stranger things have happened in American politics.
If Bush is to have a chance of winning, and if McCain does not want history recording him as the reason the GOP lost the White House in 2000, both will need each other. And one way they can meet each other's needs is for Bush to offer, and McCain to accept, the nod to be the GOP candidate for vice president.
Such a move would require both men to sublimate a lot of ego and swallow a lot of pride, but that is what they may have to do if they want to win in November. But even that move, as important as it would be to the GOP, still might not guarantee a Republican victory. That's because Gore may have a plan to counter that move.
If McCain, a Vietnam War hero and former POW, is on the GOP ticket, Gore could bring another Vietnam War hero onto his ticket: Massachusetts Senator John F. Kerry, who won the Silver Star, a Bronze Star, and three Purple Hearts in Vietnam.
And, unlike the apparent distant relationship between Bush and McCain, Kerry and McCain have mutual respect and admiration for each other. Unlike many vice-presidential candidates, both men would elevate their presidential nominees and perhaps put their respective campaigns on higher ground.
Of course, it is entirely possible that Bush and Gore may have completely different ideas as to who might be their running mates. A lot could happen between now and the nominating conventions this summer. But such a possible scenario suggests that whatever Bush does to move his quest for the presidency forward, Gore is likely to do something that would counter or blunt the move.
Ironically, while Bush attempts to tie Gore to Clinton in a negative way, Clinton has been giving Gore a helping hand, especially in his recent feud with the National Rifle Association. The NRA apparently went too far in attacking Clinton and his push for more gun control, stating that Clinton was actually willing to increase gun violence to further his cause. Although Bush later repudiated the NRA officer's remarks, it appears that both Clinton's and Gore's views on gun control are more in line with the electorates than Bush's and, especially, the NRA's.
At this stage, the NRA may be one of Gore's best weapons against Bush in the campaign, giving Bush another weight to carry with him in his race for the presidency.
No doubt Gore is not going to have easy sailing. But for now, he has a smaller burden to dispose of than his GOP rival. While Bush has McCain, Buchanan, and possibly the NRA weighing him down, Gore appears to be running as if he left one potential drag on his campaign, the Buddhist Temple fund-raiser, in the political dust.
Robert A. Jordan is a Globe columnist.
