By Jill Zuckman, Globe Staff, June 14, 1999
As he arrives in New Castle this morning in his first presidential campaign foray, Texas Governor George W. Bush is mindful that front-runners in New Hampshire have a history of becoming also-rans.
"I guess I have to be prepared for the unexpected," Bush said in a recent interview.
Every four years, one political candidate or another starts off strong. And every four years, someone who was supposed to easily win the nation's first primary trips along the way.
"New Hampshire's a very independent, sometimes cranky state," said Steve Duprey, chairman of the state's Republican Party. "It has a history of occasionally causing frontrunners problems."
Even Bush supporters in New Hampshire are nervous that their popular candidate may be too far ahead for his own good.
"Those in the 1 to 5 percent category are lobbing grenades at the guy out front," said Will Abbott, who ran the state for Bush's father in 1988. "It's not easy, and it's going to get less easy as time goes on."
Rhona Charbonneau, a Hillsborough County commissioner, will be squiring Bush around the Lilac Luncheon, sponsored by the New Hampshire Federation of Republican Women, in Manchester this afternoon, trying to introduce him to each of the 900 guests.
"He's going to have to work very hard and stick to the grass roots," said Charbonneau, who is leaning toward the Bush camp. "Here in New Hampshire, you see these people two and three and four times. People just want to listen to them and look them right straight in the eye and make sure he's not gazing off at someone else to see who he's going to talk to next."
Thomas D. Rath, a Concord, N.H., lawyer, has seen presidential candidates come and go. He remembers when Edmund S. Muskie appeared to cry in 1972 outside the Manchester Union-Leader, contributing to his disappointing finish in the primary and providing an opening for George S. McGovern.
Rath also remembers Walter F. Mondale locking up all the labor and political endorsements, only to be upset by Gary Hart in 1984.
"New Hampshire is not afraid to say to candidates, 'I'm not sure you're the front-runner till I say you're the front-runner,' " said Rath, a senior adviser to former Tennessee governor Lamar Alexander, who is decidedly not a front-runner.
If Bush is nervous about entering New Hampshire, he has good reason. His father never had an easy time of it in the Granite State. In 1980, George Bush came out of the Iowa caucuses with momentum but was stopped cold by Ronald Reagan in the New Hampshire primary.
In 1988, Bush was on the verge of losing the state to Bob Dole when then-Governor John H. Sununu helped rescue Bush's bid in the final days. And in 1992, President Bush won New Hampshire but was wounded by Patrick J. Buchanan's surprisingly strong showing. "I would rather think about the '88 campaign than the '80 campaign," Governor Bush said, when asked about his father's experiences and his words of wisdom. "My dad has given me good advice, which is be yourself."
Bush insisted that every election is unique, and there is only so much he can apply to his own race from his father's experiences.
Most important, he said, is to get out, shake hands, and put together a great grass-roots organization. In fact, the Bush campaign promises to make a substantial announcement today regarding its New Hampshire effort. That announcement is likely to detail an array of supporters in each of the state's counties, cities, and towns.
But as Bob Dole knows from his 1996 New Hampshire loss to Buchanan, anything can happen to spoil the aura of inevitability. While stumping in New Hampshire, for example, Dole said he was surprised that jobs and the economy were such big issues in the campaign. The remark was a turning point that crystallized fears about Dole and helped to pave the way for Buchanan.
But David M. Carney, a Republican political consultant who once worked for President Bush, said there is no good analogy to the supercharged atmosphere surrounding the Texas governor.
"This sort of phenomenon has never happened before," said Carney, who is remaining independent in the 2000 campaign. "There have never been these kinds of numbers, never this far out."
Still, Carney said this week's visit is fraught with danger for Governor Bush. He said the governor essentially is visiting New Hampshire without a dress rehearsal, without a defined message, and with a national media hungry to scrutinize.
"He could come in and do a flawless trip and the election could be over," Carney said. "He could come in and there could be a perceived stumble and it could be wide open."
By the time he leaves the state tomorrow, Bush said, he hopes he will have made a good impression.
"I'd like for the people of New Hampshire to say, 'This is a man who speaks plainly, that he's got a philosophy, that he knows how to lead, that he's a hard worker and takes nothing for granted.' "
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