ASHUA - Governor George W. Bush still vows that he will win the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday. But as the contest draws closer, and as polls show him trailing Senator John S. McCain, it sometimes seems like Bush's mind is already someplace else.
Basking in the comfort of $74 million in campaign funds, Bush is running TV ads in South Carolina. He has a bustling campaign office in Arizona. He has a trip to Michigan planned for next Friday.
He even has a ready answer for what he would do if he lost the first primary in the nation. ''Go to Delaware,'' Bush said in an interview yesterday, without missing a beat.
In short, Bush is running a campaign that hopes for the best in New Hampshire but does not depend on it, one that allows him to shrug off the daily questions about whether he is troubled by the polls. Having spread its reach across the country over the last 14 months, the Bush campaign is already looking ahead not only to other primaries but to the final election in November. In his public appearances, the Texas governor often bypasses McCain to directly attack the potential Democratic candidate, Vice President Al Gore.
Bush is careful not to sound presumptuous about winning the nomination, refusing, for instance, to discuss the topic of a runningmate. He often ends his speeches with a caveat about his winning the White House, saying it will happen only if he is ''fortunate to earn the respect and trust of the American people.''
And he remains adamant about his focus on the New Hampshire race. ''I hope people don't think I'm taking anything for granted,'' Bush said. ''I'm certainly working. I recognize I'm in a tough race.''
But at an organizational level, Bush has steeled himself for a New Hampshire race that is not only tough but may well wind up an early defeat. He is already gearing up to fly to South Carolina the day after the New Hampshire primary, to a state where he has spent months campaigning. Bush has at least 13 campaign offices nationwide. He has TV ads running in eight states.
''I'm going to compete in every state,'' Bush said. ''I've got great organizations laid out in states down the road. We're working hard in Delaware and South Carolina, Virginia and Michigan, California...On March the 14th, Texas and Florida loom out there. I'm in pretty good shape in those huge electoral states. This is a marathon as far as I'm concerned.''
Bush is not in marathon shape at the moment, as he contends with a slight cold and a sudden spike the number of his daily campaign activities. During an interview yesterday, held on his bus trip between the Sanders Lockheed Martin company and the Fairgrounds Elementary School in Nashua, he seemed distracted. During his speeches, Bush frequently tells supporters how much he misses home.
But he appears fully relaxed about the outcome Tuesday. When asked what he thought he was doing wrong in New Hampshire, Bush joked, ''You mean, what are the pollsters doing wrong?''
Bush spokesman Ari Fleischer stopped short of dismissing the importance of the New Hampshire primary. But he did say Bush had ''done something unprecedented in primary politics, in that he has built a national organization that gives him a tremendous advantage and head start in helping Republicans take back the White House.''
''Let me put it this way,'' he said. ''Senator McCain must win New Hampshire. If he doesn't, it's hard to see how he can go on.''
Thomas D. Rath, a veteran New Hampshire Republican who is supporting Bush, said a loss here would be no more than ''a speed bump'' in the governor's drive for the nomination.
''We're ready in every single state,'' said Rath. ''Would there be some impact of a loss here? Sure.''
But Rath said he does not want to dwell on losing. That's because he still believes Bush can overtake McCain on Feb. 1. The final weekend before the vote, he said, frequently results in wild swings in the polls.
In 1988, former Senator Bob Dole's pollster was calling him ''Mr. President,'' and telling Dole that he was beating Bush's father by six points in the polls. A couple days later, Dole lost New Hampshire by nine points and Bush was elected president.
Meanwhile, Bush took on McCain yesterday, again challenging his tax cut proposal and taking advantage of a comment the Arizona senator made during Wednesday's GOP debate linking his tax plan to President Clinton. Bush said that ''one of the telling moments from the debate last night is when John said his tax plan is like Clinton's tax plan.''
''It's important to nominate somebody who will debate the Democrat on key issues, not mimic them,'' he said.
But Bush went after Gore, too. Responding to a question about whether the Vice President appeared to be cozying up to President Clinton after months of distancing himself, Bush said Gore might be sending ''confusing signals'' to voters.
Jill Zuckman of the Globe Staff contributed to this story.
