DANVILLE, Ky. It's like a criminal trial, where the burden of proof never leaves the prosecution's shoulders until the instant the jury decides that it does. In a presidential election, the superficial contest dogged relentlessly by journalists masks a deeper question.
Obviously, there is the question of whether Candidate A is to be preferred over Candidate B, the same question to be found in a contest for city council. But where the presidency is concerned, the deeper question is whether the Out Party is to replace the In Party, and both history and logic demonstrate that the Outs must carry the burden of proof at all times and that the case is difficult to make.
What history also demonstrates is that to succeed, the Outs have needed a combination of circumstance as well as agenda to succeed. Whether it was Wilson, Harding, FDR, Eisenhower, Kennedy, Nixon, Carter, Reagan, or Clinton, Outs have not won because they were ''likeable.'' Where the presidency is concerned, it's not personal, it's business - the people's, not the candidates's.
In other words, what George W. Bush is trying to do is essentially without precedent - to win the presidency without the circumstances that ordinarily are required for success by an Out Party nominee - difficult economic times; and an ugly war doesn't hurt, either.
And Bush is making his difficult task doubly difficult by not having an agenda and an argument for change that is both consistent and consistently compelling. The fact that he is well within striking distance with a month to go is astonishing. One reason is historical, namely that there is no incumbent president on the ballot, making the contemplation of a change easier.
The other reason is specific to this year: Al Gore. He has yet to come up with a formulation of ideas or words that closes a sale that ought to be fairly easy. And for all his improvement in the last two months, he is still not there. But the more important fact after one-and-a-half rounds of Debateorama, is that Bush isn't there.
That is why the national polls, which are beginning to matter as the country gradually pays more attention to the campaign, keep drifting to Gore's benefit as long as he stays free of goofs or other statements and actions that remind people why they are so hesitant about supporting him.
For the challenger, these can be frustrating times, but rather than whine about the press coverage, the Republicans would be better advised to concentrate on meeting their burden of proof. The effort to find a slogan suggesting hard times when times are not hard (education ''recession'' is my favorite example) is misplaced. Bush's original thought, that the unprecedented prosperity should be acknowledged, was correct.
Running mate Dick Cheney, following guidance from Austin, took another stab here against Joseph Lieberman the other evening. This formulation, which is also the basis of the latest Bush TV advertising, attempts a recreation of the Reagan-era assault on Democrats as the vehicle for higher taxes, higher government spending, and greater government regulation.
They're welcome to try, but the problem is that this is a narrow appeal, seeking to mobilize conservatives more than move moderates. It turns off as much as it turns on, as witness the positive reaction to the mature discussion here last Thursday by the two would-be veeps.
What has been missing this fall turns out to be what Democrats fear most. Just as their least favorite running mates for Bush would have been John McCain or Governor Tom Ridge of swing state Pennsylvania (in which the GOP is in peril of falling too far behind), their least favorite Bush message is inclusion, moderation, and a fixation on bipartisan approaches to the country's major challenges.
Back in the spring, Bush was a fool not to have adopted a few of McCain's ideas for the general election. But it is possibly not too late to plug into a national feeling that the most important obstacle to four years of solid governmental progress is too much partisanship and inflexible ideology.
It might mean acknowledging what is already true - that there isn't one of his campaign ideas on taxes, Social Security, Medicare, or anything else that has a chance of seeing reality without major give-and-take with Democrats. So why not start at Wake Forest tomorrow?
Given the odds he faces, Bush must understand that down the final stretch, the best indicator that he's making progress is the extent to which Pat Robertson is furious at him.
Thomas Oliphant's e-mail address is t-oliphant@globe.com.
