ROBERT A. JORDAN

Bush may need a dramatic move, like picking Elizabeth Dole as VP

By Robert A. Jordan, Globe Staff, June 20, 1999

Now that the expected Democratic and Republican nominees for president have formally announced their intentions, both might be thinking, even at this early stage, about running mates.

Many nominees generally use the other side of their tickets to shore up geographically weak areas, or to give balance to their political philosophies. Still, the conventional wisdom is that vice presidential nominees, regardless of who they are or where they're from, have little influence with voters in their choice for president.

However, if Texas Governor George W. Bush, the early GOP front-runner, wins the party's nomination, his choice of a vice presidential running mate might be crucial to defeating Vice President Al Gore Jr., the expected Democratic nominee.

Despite the conventional wisdom, Bush might greatly enhance his chances of becoming the next president if he does something extraordinary in picking his running mate. While choosing an African-American woman or African-American man of Colin Powell's stature could wrest much of the black vote from Gore, it might prove a move that the conservative GOP simply would not accept.

The next best thing for Bush would be to select Elizabeth Dole as his running mate.

If Bush makes such a move, Gore could easily counter with his choice of a running mate -- someone like US Senator Dianne Feinstein of California.

While Bush is popular, he might not be popular enough to attract a majority of mainstream voters to his candidacy or to the candidacies of other Republicans in the House and Senate. As polls reflected during the Clinton-Lewinsky scandal and the impeachment trial, nearly two-thirds of the electorate supported President Clinton throughout the ordeal, which helped him defeat Republican efforts to convict him on the charges arising from his involvement with former intern Monica Lewinsky.

Some polls also showed that a majority of women, if not supporting Clinton, were clearly critical of the GOP's impeachment efforts.

The Republican Party is still wounded from its defeats at the hands of Clinton, and is still in danger of losing control of the House and Senate in the next election. And the Republican-led successful effort last week against tightened gun control laws may hurt the GOP's prospects even more.

Clinton's current hold on the majority of mainstream voters, which undoubtedly will help Gore, has been enhanced with NATO's -- and his -- recent win in the Kosovo crisis. His popularity rose even higher because he was able to conduct a successful air war without ground troops.

If Clinton's popularity and the strong economy continue, those attributes will give Gore more political impetus in his expected battle with Bush. Thus, despite Gore's well-known stiff demeanor and slow, often boring cadence in his speeches, he will still be a formidable opponent.

Gore also has a strong image as a "clean" candidate that should work well in the post-Clinton era.

Although Bush's kickoff was well received around the nation, moving him even higher in the polls among other GOP contenders as well as against Gore, he still carries a lot of negative Republican baggage with him that is still filled with the GOP-led impeachment.

To help win back some of the strong support Clinton received from the nation's women during the scandal and trial, Bush just may need to do something extraordinary for a Republican. And not much would be more extraordinary than to have a woman such as Dole on the GOP ticket to help soften the overall negative image that many women have toward the party.

Some pundits might argue that having a woman on the ticket certainly did not help Democratic presidential nominee Walter Mondale in 1984 when he set the precedent by bringing aboard Geraldine Ferarro as his running mate. But Ferraro, it turned out, had her own problems that did more harm than good to Mondale's campaign. It was also a different era. Women have even a larger say today in the nation's political life.

Another reason why Bush might need Dole as a running mate is the motor voter bill -- allowing citizens to register to vote while registering their cars -- that was passed in 1995. That bill has added as many as 10 million African-Americans to the voting lists across the country. The bill has worked to the advantage of Clinton and other Democrats.

Another advantage that Gore may have over Bush is "Clinton the fund-raiser," especially after his air war success over Kosovo. He is one of the biggest fund-raisers for Gore and other Democrats.

Then there is Hillary Clinton's expected run for the US Senate in New York. Her campaign would attract women not only to her campaign, but to Gore's as well. Hillary has been popular with women.

One more aspect that is likely to work in Gore's favor is the Rev. Jesse Jackson factor. Jackson, whose own popularity soared with his successful effort to have several American soldiers released by Serbian authorities, is likely to be a signficant player in the Gore campaign.

Jackson's presence will help bring out a strong African-American vote, and he will help maintain the coalition of blacks, Hispanics, liberals, and elderly voters that supported Clinton in the past.

There is one more factor that would help Gore: organized labor. It's no surprise that one of Gore's campaign themes is to help working families.

With help from the Bill and Hillary Clinton, Jackson, the motor voter bill, and organized labor, Gore could win without having a woman on the ticket -- but having a running mate such as Feinstein certainly would not hurt.

Bush, on the other hand, might not be able to win without doing something new and extraordinary, such as Elizabeth Dole on the ticket.