eorge W. Bush surprised a lot of folks, including, perhaps, himself, with a deft Texas-two-step through the mine field of foreign policy questions Wednesday night.
But even as the quickie overnight polls crowned him the winner of the second presidential debate, events in the Middle East intruded in a menacing way, leaving US sailors dead, the Middle East aflame, and the stock markets badly holed.
The ritual confrontation of talk-show hypotheses was crowded offstage by the bloodshed and threat escalation abroad, with its potential for outright war, oil price spikes, stock market collapse, and a sudden dose of inflation.
The political question no one could answer was how the dramatic surge of international tension and possible American military action might affect the election 25 days away. Did Bush's debate performance convince enough voters that he has the experience, skill set, and resolve to take over an America suddenly threatened from abroad?
Or will Vice President Gore's stolid performance reassure voters that his eight years at Clinton's side and quarter-century total in the national government furnish more of a cushion against trouble on the US horizon? For Gore, the sooner voters forget about his performance in Winston-Salem, the better. Because Bush, for the night, at least, obscured, if not erased, the stature gap with a well-rehearsed exposition of his foreign policy notions and a bit of clever role reversal.
After running against Clintonism for the last two years, Bush found it prudent to praise Clinton administration policies repeatedly: ''I think the president did the right thing'' in Mexico ... ''We should speak with one voice'' on the Middle East ... ''I think the president made the right decision'' on leading the NATO bombing of Serbia) ... ''I called on the Congress not to hamstring the president.''
So frequent were his endorsements of Clinton foreign policy that Bush himself wisecracked, ''It seems like we're having a great love fest here tonight.''
It worked for him. On my scorecard, much as it pains me to say it, Bush won the first hour of the debate hands down. Gore was meek, mild, and on his best behavior. Combative Al from Debate One morphed into Comatose Al. So intent was he upon not hectoring and lecturing, being pedantic or exaggeration prone, Gore displayed his Caspar Milquetoast side to go with his new blue necktie.
Overcoached and underwhelming, Gore passed up opportunities to zing Bush. The Tennessean was a punchless palooka for the first hour of the debate. He seemed to be playing to protect a lead, which he had till recently in terms of electoral votes. Bush overcame moments of furtiveness and indecision. At times, his furrowed brow reminded this pair of eyeballs of Johnny Carson pondering a straight line.
But the Texan had the bolder game plan, exercised more confidently. He expanded his presence as Gore repeatedly shunned confrontation. Bush appeared much more surefooted than in past encounters on foreign affairs. He worked in some 50-cent vocabulary - ''egregious ... abrogation ... innovatively'' - without his typical verbal clumsiness. And he inserted a neat bit of self-deprecation, about his propensity to misprounounce his ''syll-ABB-les,'' as he called them.
Bush was perceived the winner of Debate Two in the same fashion of quickie polls that favored Gore after Debate One. ABC's gave it to Bush by 46 percent to 30 for Gore; the CNN-USA Today Gallup was 49-36; NBC (40-37) and CBS (51-48) had it close. ''Spent a lot of time on foreign policy, and I think I might have surprised some people about my ability to converse in foreign policy,'' said Bush in a postdebate interview on CBS that suggested he felt foreign policy is a foreign language. ''I think a lot about it,'' said Bush, in another of those slightly goofy allusions that his supporters find endearing and his foes pounce upon as proof of vacuousness.
Gore was so laid back he let the other guy pile up points, though Gore recovered some ground in the last 30 minutes. The vice president never exploited openings to remind female voters that Bush opposes abortion and would make abortions harder to obtain. He didn't inform America about Bush signing the infamous right-to-carry law that gives hundreds of thousands of pistol-packers the right to sneak guns just about anywhere.
Nowhere did he underline the peaks of the Clinton economy. But Gore's subdued performance was washed away in the suicide attack on the USS Cole, the Middle East eruption, and the stock market swoon. The jaw-jaw of debate gave way to the war-war of the Middle East. Overnight, experience became more of an asset than time-for-a-change.
David Nyhan's e-mail address is nyhan@globe.com.
