LENWOOD, Iowa - Governor George W. Bush of Texas, energized after a rousing reception in rural Iowa and a good night's sleep, strolled the streets here yesterday with a confidence that seemed to elude him in previous days. But with the Iowa caucuses on the horizon, Bush wasn't taking any chances.
He laid out modest expectations for a Jan. 24 victory: just 37 percent, the highest ever achieved in a Republican race here. And despite yesterday's sunny skies, his aides emphasized that anything, including a snowstorm, could lead to lower results than the campaign wants.
''It's one thing to say they're for me. It's another thing to show up,'' Bush said at a news conference. ''I'm very aware of how a caucus system works, as is our organization.''
Bush arrived here after a grueling week of campaign stops in New Hampshire, South Carolina, Michigan, and Delaware, in preparation for today's 2 p.m. Republican debate in Des Moines.
Bush has a strong lead in most Iowa polls, which put him just under 50 percent, followed by Steve Forbes, at about 20 percent. Bush is also expected to benefit from a solid political organization in the state, which includes the backing of US Senator Charles E. Grassley and US Representative Greg Ganske.
But even Ganske cautioned against assuming Bush would sweep the caucuses. The governor's front-runner status, he said, is ''part of the problem with the Bush campaign in Iowa.''
''You don't have what is perceived as a horse race'' in Iowa, Ganske said, after introducing Bush at a morning rally in front of more than about 400 supporters.
Karen Hughes, Bush's communications director, agreed: ''It's one of the perils of being far ahead in the polls. If it's bad weather, or if your kid is sick, you might think, it's fine, I don't have to go, he's far ahead.''
If yesterday's campaign stops were any measure, Bush had little reason to worry. After meeting with supporters in Red Oak, Iowa, where he was at ease with the cheering crowd, he drove here to shake hands with local shop owners and bank tellers, and customers running errands. He signed baseball bats and slips of paper. At one point, during a stop in the Glenwood State Bank, he caused a roar of laughter when he held up a plastic mask of President Clinton.
He caused another ripple inside Kaiman's grocery store, commandeering the loudspeaker to announce, ''Now hear this! Everybody should go to caucus night. And while you're there, remember George W. Bush came to ask for the vote. Now hear this.''
Several patrons said they'd honor the request. Store owner Jerry Kaiman, 67, said he found Bush ''very impressive, very warm, very cordial,'' and said that even though he lives across the state border, in Omaha, he would favor Bush on Election Day. Jean Armstrong, a registered nurse from Jennie Edmunson Hospital in Council Bluffs, was even more enthusiastic. After a visit earlier in the week from Laura Bush, the candidate's wife, Armstrong said she had no doubts that she would vote for Bush.
Earlier in the day, Bush impressed several supporters with his stance on the Head Start program. When asked what he would do with it, Bush said he would expand it to become an education program - moving it from the Department of Health and Human Services into the Department of Education, and turning it into an early childhood education system that teaches literacy and math.
Only once was he visibly stumped. Asked during a news conference to articulate what he felt he had learned about the GOP candidates during the previous six weeks of debates, Bush paused, then replied: ''Hm. Let's see. Well ... I think that we're a pretty conservative lot. We've learned I've got a couple of nice red ties. I'm not really sure how to answer the question.''
