id anybody really think that President-in-Waiting George W. Bush was going to be asked to spell ''cat'' last night and that he would answer ''k-h-a-d-t''?
In a classic example of front-runner rules, front-runner luck, front-runner standards (low) and front-runner expectations (even lower), the Texas governor began the countdown to the country's first primary with a stolid but solid shoring-up of his dominant position in the race.
John McCain, by contrast, had some bad luck - especially in the form of two straight, cheap questions about his alleged temper and lack of Senate Club support. But he also failed to offer a compelling difference with Bush that matters enough to voters to justify a vote, and that was no one's fault but his.
Bush did it the ugly way, with mindless repetion of bromides, a rigged non-debate that kept him from having to deal directly with challenges to his issue positions (notably on tax cuts), and a good enough memory to be able to continually repeat, Stepford-style, that Texas is the second largest state and one of the world's largest economies, that he has been re-elected after cutting taxes twice, has excellent relations with Mexico, and thinks that ''vision, judgemnt and leadership'' are what counts in foreign policy.
But he will win many hearts and minds with his gorgeous putdown of New Jersey Geek Steve Forbes, who has been running a cheap-shot TV commercial slamming Bush for the alleged sin of keeping an open mind about a higher retirement age for Social Security. Bush stunned Forbes by quoting from a 1977 Forbes column that advocated that exact idea.
Forbes was so flustered last night that he blurted out a delicious Spoonerism during a comment on the tax system that could have applied to the evening, ''The stack is decked.''
That it was. But the job of challenger is to knock of a front-runner, stacked decks notwithstanding. Last night, the challengers, above all McCain, missed a golden chance.
Thomas Oliphant is a Globe columnist.
