ASHINGTON - Texas Governor George W. Bush's lead among Republicans in New Hampshire is beginning to weaken and Arizona Senator John McCain has clearly emerged as his main challenger, a Reuters/WHDH poll showed yesterday.
Bush led with 40 percent, but McCain's support jumped to 21 percent. Publisher Steve Forbes was third with 12 percent; Elizabeth Dole had 7 percent; Pat Buchanan, who seems likely to bolt the Republican Party for the Reform Party this month, had 5 percent. The rest of the field was at 2 percent or less.
The poll of 1,210 voters likely to participate in New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation primary scheduled for next Feb. 1, carried a statistical margin of error of 3 percentage points. The Republican sub-sample of 608 likely voters had a 4-point margin of error. The survey was conducted Oct. 8-10 by Zogby International for Reuters and WHDH-TV of Boston.
''Bush's support is leveling off while McCain's has increased. What will happen when Steve Forbes's negative ads on Bush hit full swing? The book is not closed,'' said pollster John Zogby.
Forbes, who spent $37 million of his own money on his 1996 presidential bid, much of that on a series of punishing television spots against his rivals, is expected to take the offensive against Bush soon.
Though Bush still enjoys a solid lead, there were several indications in the poll that his support might be soft. Asked whether they knew enough about Bush to nominate him for president, 56 percent of Republican primary voters said ''no'' while 39 percent said ''yes.''
Almost 56 percent of Republicans said they did not believe that Bush had the nomination wrapped up; 37 percent said that he did.
This poll showed some notable differences from a New Hampshire survey conducted by Reuters in late April. At that time Bush led with 38 percent but Dole was second with 15 percent and McCain third with 9 percent. Since then, despite his dominance of the race, Bush has been largely unable to expand his support in New Hampshire while Dole has faded badly.
McCain, who is concentrating his campaign on New Hampshire, South Carolina, and California, is the clear second choice.
