Bush staff losing campaign swagger

By Anne E. Kornblut, Globe Staff, 12/12/2000

USTIN - Before the election, the members of the Bush campaign were studies in self-assurance, displaying extraordinary confidence as they predicted a sweep of more than 300 electoral votes and privately told the candidate he had already won.

Even after election night, they stayed emotionally pumped, translating their unbridled optimism into a public relations weapon, as they worked to help George W. Bush ''look presidential'' and built momentum around the idea that he had prevailed.

But as the postelection indecision dragged into its fifth week, with the US Supreme Court considering a case that could decide the presidency once and for all, advisers to Bush for the first time sounded truly chastened yesterday. Well aware of the dangers of predicting victory too soon - and, after a series of unexpected twists that did not work in their favor, genuinely worried about getting it wrong - the team expressed confidence in their lawyers but declined to revel in the likelihood of victory. Bush, who has never betrayed a hint of worry over the outcome, also chose his words carefully, saying he trusted his lawyers to do their best.

''I am keeping my emotions in check,'' Bush said yesterday, entering his offices at the State Capitol shortly before the court hearing began.

To be sure, there are no voices of real doubt in the campaign headquarters, transformed since Nov. 7 into a postelection war room near the governor's mansion here. Everyone agrees on the theme trumpeted from Austin for nearly two years: that Bush is destined to become the next president.

But in anticipating each legal twist along the way and analyzing every move by the courts, Bush and his staff have learned to be somewhat circumspect. No longer predicting they will easily prevail in the US Supreme Court, an aide to Bush warned yesterday that ''it's very misleading to try to discern from the justices' questions how they're leaning.''

''We've been tempered by this process,'' spokesman Dan Bartlett said.

Both Bush and Vice President Al Gore spent most of the day hidden from view, waiting for what may well be the ruling that decides the next president. Gore watched the US Supreme Court coverage from home, listening to the audio tapes released in lieu of television footage, while three of his children, Karenna, Kristin and Albert III, took their place inside the court.

Should the court rule decisively against him, Gore would be expected to concede quickly, Democrats said, although his campaign had enjoyed a burst of renewed support after the Florida Supreme Court last week ordered a manual ballot recount. He and his wife, Tipper, had lunch with running mate Senator Joseph I. Lieberman and his wife, Hadassah, yesterday, and met with former secretary of state Warren Christopher and campaign chairman William Daley after the 90-minute hearing ended.

Bush, who has avoided watching much of the legal wrangling and has not even installed cable or satellite TV at the Crawford ranch where he spends most weekends, said he was taking his emotional cues from his lawyers.

After talking to his legal team, headed by former secretary of state James A. Baker III, Bush said his advisers were ''cautiously optimistic'' about how the Supreme Court would respond, based on the questions the nine justices asked during the hearing yesterday morning.

''If they are, I am'' cautiously optimistic, Bush said. ''Feel pretty calm about it.''

The casual tone marked a dramatic shift within a campaign that has been at times accused of taking victory for granted. Bush aides long felt their $100 million war chest and the personality drawbacks of Al Gore all but guaranteed them the White House, and throughout the campaign poll numbers often indicated the electorate agreed.

But if confidence was the currency of the Bush campaign at times, allowing aides to project a positive image of ''leadership'' and ''optimism'' as they sought to defeat a sitting vice president, it was also a liability in times of trouble, making them appear overconfident or even smug. Only recently has the campaign adopted a uniform tone of subdued confidence, seemingly humbled by the disappointments.

''Now,'' one aide said, ''it's just the waiting game.''