ASHINGTON - George W. Bush is redrawing key elements of his political strategy and is betting millions of dollars that he can win a quintet of states that have popular Republican governors, who in turn have been given a much larger role in deciding how to spend campaign money, Bush associates said.
One result of this strategy is that Bush is spending far less money in California, New Jersey, and Illinois than he originally planned and is diverting much of the cash to Florida, Ohio, and Michigan. Bush originally had hoped to have a lock on Florida, where his brother is governor, but Gore is running strong and also spending heavily in that state, forcing a significant shift in Bush's financial strategy.
After days of deliberations - much of it on how much to invest in California - the Bush campaign has tentatively determined that the best chance of winning the presidency is to focus increasingly on five battleground states with popular Republican governors. They are Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Michigan, Bush associates said.
The redrawn strategy is important not just because of a reallocation of dollars, but also because it has given much more influence to some of the governors who led the way in backing Bush for president early last year. A number of Bush campaign and Republican sources said some of the governors had felt they weren't being given enough prominence in the campaign, especially as Bush's poll numbers began to slide. Throughout this month, several of the governors have called Bush or his aides and asked for a bigger say and a larger chunk of advertising money - and have gotten what they wanted.
''This has been coming in the last two weeks,'' Wisconsin Governor Tommy Thompson said in an interview. ''We are now very much at the forefront and we are going to be used more effectively. We've always had a role, but we are just much more energized because we know our states are on the bubble and we've got to carry them.''
Thompson said that Bush's father, President Bush, won in 1988 when he relied on the governors, but lost in 1992, when ''he didn't use us as effectively.'' Now, Thompson said, Governor Bush is turning to the governors, too.
Governor Bob Taft of Ohio, while emphasizing that Bush has always focused strongly on his state, said in an interview that he became more assertive this month as Bush's poll numbers sagged.
''The focus of the Bush campaign in Ohio has never faltered,'' Taft said. ''But there is a recognition that there was a lull in the progress of the campaign. In response to that, they intensified their efforts to communicate with folks on the ground and listen to our issues and our concern and just consult with us.''
Now, Taft said, ''there is a closer coordination between those of us on the ground, which we think is a positive development. They were not neglecting us, but now it is more intense.''
''We are trying to say this is a tight race and execution matters,'' said Governor John Engler of Michigan, who is providing the Bush campaign with specific suggestions on where to spend advertising dollars in his state.
Bush campaign officials insist for the record that California is still in play. Bush, who campaigned in the state yesterday, predicted last night on CNN's ''Larry King Live'' that he would win there. But some aides said privately that they believe it is too risky to spend the $10 million or more that is needed to run a competitive race there, especially when that money could make a big difference in states where Bush has a much better chance of winning.
The Gore campaign, meanwhile, is so confident that it will win California that it has no plans to revisit the state in the next two weeks and has made no commitments for the remainder of the campaign, a spokesman said. Analysts said neither campaign is spending a significant amount of money in California despite the mother lode of 54 electoral votes, the largest of any state. The second- and third-largest states are also widely considered out of contention, with Bush expected to win his home state of Texas and Gore expected to take New York. By many estimations, the campaign could be decided in the fourth-largest state, Florida, where Bush's brother, Jeb, is governor. The Bush campaign earlier this year thought it had Florida wrapped up, but in the last month it has become so concerned that it has poured $2.8 million in the state, more than anywhere else.
Analyst Charles Cook said that the reversal of Bush's fortunes in the polls since the Democratic convention has prompted a dramatic reordering of financial priorities in the GOP campaign.
''If you had a state-by-state budget on where Bush and Gore are planning on spending their money a month ago compared to where they will spend it in the next month, it is a very different list,'' Cook said. ''For example, Bush is lightening up on California and going heavy in Florida. Gore is potentially lightening up on Pennsylvania and Illinois and going heavy in Florida and Ohio.''
The reason, Cook said, is that tables were turned on Bush through much of September. Bush originally hoped to spend heavily in California and force Gore to do the same. Instead, little spending is occurring in California and Gore is forcing Bush to dig deep in Florida, Cook said.
While the campaigns don't release state-by-state spending figures, various sources who have analyzed Bush's spending said the Bush campaign in the last month has spent about $2.8 million in Florida, more than any other state. The next closest was $2.6 million in Pennsylvania, $2.1 million in Michigan, and $2 million in Ohio. A Gore campaign official said the vice president has spent slightly lower amounts in most of those states.
A senior Bush associate, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the emergence of Florida as a hotly contested state has forced the campaign to rethink its national strategy - and plan for the possibility that Bush could lose the Sunshine State. If Bush loses Florida, the campaign believes it must win some smaller states that initially were slated to receive little emphasis, including Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, New Mexico, Arkansas, West Virginia, and Oregon, the Bush associate said.
''There is no doubt in my mind that the surprise state is Florida, you have to be honest about that,'' the Bush associate said.
Cook said the race is extraordinarily tight. In his widely watched electoral college analysis, Cook reported that Gore is ahead in states with 231 electoral votes, while Bush is ahead in states with 179, with another 128 electoral votes in 11 tossup states. A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to become president.
Cook's analysis also show that three states initially targeted by Bush are now either leaning or clearly in Gore's favor: New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Illinois. Of the three, Bush is most strongly contesting Pennyslvania, where the most recent statewide poll is within the margin or error.
Putting a new emphasis on the Republican governors is not necessarily a sure-win strategy. During the primaries, Bush relied heavily on Governor John Engler to run the Michigan campaign. But Engler underestimated the amount of independent and Democratic support that GOP candidate John McCain would get and Bush lost the state.
Nowhere is Bush's strategic emphasis more clear than in Pennsylvania, a state that Bush's father lost in 1992. Governor Bush is appearing there at least weekly and is likely to spend far more money there any previous Republican presidential candidate.
''In previous races, the Republicans have pretty much looked the other way from the Midwest to the Northeast,'' Pennsylvania Governor Thomas Ridge said in an interview. ''I told Bush I believe he can win here, but it will require a lot of time and money.'' So far, Ridge noted, Bush has spent both in Pennsylvania, and the pace continues to accelerate.
Ridge, like the other governors interviewed for this story, said that the campaign did not expect Gore's resurgence and has relied on governors to help right the campaign. ''It was just a very cumbersome, difficult time,'' Ridge said of Bush's slump earlier this month. ''But I think that at the end of the day if you distill it down to key states, he has 30 Republican governor friends. That is one of the things that is unique about this campaign is that governors are given a lead role within their state.''
The Bush campaign believes its refocused strategy is paying off, with Bush drawing even in the polls with Gore this week. But Bush has spent heavily to make up that polling deficit.
Bush's campaign has raised $177 million, including a recent $68 million check from the federal government for the general election campaign. Gore, by comparison, has raised much less money, $126 million including the identical $68 million check from the federal government. But while Gore lags far behind in fund-raising, he has been spending his money much more frugally than Bush. As a result, Gore actually has more cash on hand, $66 million compared to Bush's $56 million.
That helps explain why some Republican governors in crucial Eastern and Midwestern states are reluctant to see Bush dump more millions of dollars into states such as California, Illinois, and New Jersey, where Bush faces uphill battles.
But Bush can make up for his campaign shortfall because he will benefit from the Republican Party's advantage over the Democratic Party in fund-raising. Both parties are using unregulated ''soft money'' - raised in part by Bush and Gore - to run ''party-building'' television ads that look remarkably similar to campaign commercials.
The GOP says it has $63 million in cash on hand, although Democratic officials say the Republican figure should be closer to $40 million. The Democratic National Committee won't say how much cash it has on hand, but one knowledgeable source put the figure at around $20 million. The numbers are changing daily with so many fund-raisers occuring, but the Republicans are expected to have substantially more cash on hand in the next two months than the Democrats. In any case, the campaigns and parties will both have tens of millions of dollars to spend on advertisements in the closing days.
