hen George W. Bush told voters on Tuesday, ''I trust you with your money,'' he really meant, ''You'd better have a lot of it.'' Bush seeks to radically transform Social Security and Medicare, and his tax cut plan, if enacted, would make it exceedingly difficult to find extra money for these programs when they fail to provide adequate benefits.
Ronald Reagan nibbled at the edges of the federal social welfare system. Bush aims at the heart: the guarantee that the elderly will receive a set level of benefit. Bush's affability, like Reagan's, disguises the nature of his thinking. A report for the nonprofit Century Foundation, which has commissioned much research on Social Security, details its impact.
Because Bush wants to divert part of the Social Security tax to individual accounts, the report finds, the Social Security trust fund would run out of money in 2023, instead of 2037 as now projected. And, the report concludes, everyone with individual accounts would end up with smaller benefits than they would have gotten under regular Social Security.
Retirees with 401(k)s and other supplemental investment vehicles would turn out fine. Many of the rest would have to depend on the government to commit money from general revenues to increase their benefits to tolerable levels. Bush's tax cut would discourage Congress from making these appropriations.
''Bush has not put all his cards on the table,'' said Boston College professor Alicia Munnell, co-author of the report. ''Any other plan with an individual account component requires either a big benefit cut or new infusions of money.''
Bush has been less forthcoming about Medicare, but he does envisage a system in which people are encouraged to choose managed care. Congress, as it copes with the impact of Bush's tax cut and the baby boomers' retirement over the next few decades, would be tempted to encourage most Medicare recipients to join a bare-bones health plan. Those who could afford to spend their own money could enroll in a better one; the rest would have to hope that a cash-strapped government could find extra money somewhere.
Social Security and Medicare will have to change to accommodate the baby boomers. Al Gore has not supported the higher taxes and other straightforward changes that would keep the Social Security solvent (Medicare is a tougher fix). However Gore does propose to put general revenue into the system, and he opposes diverting any into individual accounts. Bush's tax cut would help the rich, but since its impact is compounded over the decades, elderly people with few resources would be at risk. ''Trusting'' them with money they may not have is a cruel promise.
