LLENTOWN, Pa. - As the presidential candidates criss-crossed the country yesterday, their campaigns believed the election could be determined by big money bets on the Wheel of Fortune.
The popular television game show, which draws a devoted, middle class, and older audience, is currently the nation's leading venue for political ads in a host of states. Vice President Gore and Governor George W. Bush are not buying vowels, however. They are using their remaining millions of dollars in advertising money like pieces in a chess game, disclosing their final-days strategy politically and geographically. Gore switched ad money from Ohio to other battlegrounds, while Bush continued to spend money on a last-minute ad that questions the vice president's truthfulness.
While Bush and Gore have been battling in recent days over traditionally Democratic states such as Oregon, Washington, and Minnesota - all places where Green Party nominee Ralph Nader is having an impact - the biggest spending in the final days appears concentrated on more traditional battleground states. Some of the largest amounts are being spent in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Florida.
On local evening news broadcasts, and other popular shows like the Oprah Winfrey Show and ''Wheel of Fortune,'' both Bush and Gore unleashed a final carpet-bombing of the airwaves. Bush launched a particularly tough ad, questioning Gore's truthfulness.
''Remember when Al Gore said his mother-in-law's prescription cost more than his dog's? His own aides said the story was made up,'' an announcer says in the ad. The Gore campaign yesterday decided against responding to the charge in an ad, preferring instead to air a more positive spot that is notable for focusing on some of Gore's moderate credentials, such as his backing for welfare reform. The ad also touts Gore's service in Vietnam, and his experience in office, indirectly suggesting a contrast to Bush, who has less than six years' experience in public office and served in the Air National Guard without going to Vietnam.
The Gore campaign, meanwhile, has put off airing a prepared attack of its own, a commercial that questions Bush's competence to hold the presidency. A Gore aide said the ad might run before Election Day Tuesday, but the commercial is being held out of concern it could backfire. Gore has about $6 million of his $68 million general election war chest to spend on ads during the campaign's final week.
''We back-loaded our ad strategy because we planned to spend more money at the end,'' Gore spokesman Doug Hattaway said.
In one of the most telling stratagems of the final days, Bush has gone from spending none of his campaign money on California advertising to spending the largest amount in that state during the past week, according to a study by the Brennan Center for Justice. Bush spent $1.8 million in California ads for the week ending Oct. 24, the center said. A Gore spokesman said the vice president's campaign has not spent any money on California ads, believing Gore has the state wrapped up.
The center's analysis of presidential ads seems to conclude with a contradiction. Gore is running more ads; Bush is spending more money on the commercials. But analysts said there is no contradiction. Gore is buying more ads at cheaper time slots and he is benefitting from many more commercials on his behalf paid for by independent groups such as Planned Parenthood.
During the week ending Oct. 24, Bush and various groups supporting him, including the Republican Party, spent $9.1 million on ads in the nation's top 75 media markets, the study found. Gore spent $7.2 million during the same period. Bush's ad push was more costly partly due to his heavy prime-time purchases and his advertising in expensive California markets.
In the crucial market of Philadelphia - which has led the nation in political ads during much of the year - viewers saw 532 ads for Gore, compared to 253 for Bush, the study found. The reason for Gore's lead in commercials is partly due to an onslaught paid for by independent groups. Many Republican-oriented groups are spending their money on ads for congressional candidates, while Democrat-oriented groups are flooding the airwaves with pro-Gore ads, partly because they sense that the vice president may be in trouble.
The interest groups favoring Republicans ''have made the calculation that while George W. Bush hasn't won the presidency, he is not going to lose it because he doesn't have enough ads,'' said Ken Goldstein, a University of Wisconsin-Madison professor who worked on the study.
In Pennsylvania, the airwaves are flooded with every type of ad, from the Bush and Gore campaigns, from gun rights and gun control groups and the political parties. Last night, in this Lehigh Valley region which many analysts believe will play a key role in the outcome of the Pennsylvania contest, it was hard to find a commercial during the evening news that wasn't related to the presidential or congressional campaigns - except for the omnipresent pitch for the latest hot toy, scooters.
''There are six days left,'' Bush spokesman Ari Fleischer said, when asked about the campaign's ad strategy in the final days. ''That is a lot of time. The ads are designed to persuade.''
In Wisconsin, the airwaves seemed to have slightly more ads for Gore than for Bush.
The Gore campaign has been running advertisements there criticizing Bush's economic plans, citing the opinions of eight Nobel prize-winning economists who call the Texas governor's spending plans untenable and a threat to future prosperity.
Gore's help from independent groups is clear on the Wisconsin airwaves. Planned Parenthood is paying for an anti-Bush spot which quotes a series of Republican women who say they will not vote for Bush because he doesn't respect a woman's right to choose. Another spot, by the AFL-CIO, focuses on an Austin nurse who says Bush ''knew in his heart'' his comments were untrue when he spoke in the third debate about his support for a patient's bill of rights in Texas.
Bush, meanwhile, is getting an assist from a group called Americans for Job Security, which blames Gore for higher gas prices. ''Gored at the pump,'' the ad says.
And the National Rifle Association is sponsored a long infomercial in Wisconsin this week that urges viewers to join the NRA and to vote. One of the bonuses new members receive is a copy of the NRA magazine, whose cover shows a picture of Gore with President Bill Clinton's hair.
While Gore may be running slightly more ads, he also has more to contend with in states such as Wisconsin due to the challenge from Nader.
Nader, who has raised $5 million for his campaign, also is hitting the airwaves. An ad slated to begin running today in 30 states is a takeoff on a popular spot run by an Internet help-wanted company.
''When I grow up, I want the government to have the same problems it has today,'' a child says in the Nader ad.
The Bush ad that questions Gore's truthfulness surprised the vice president's campaign partly because candidates typically try to stress the positive in the final week. The ad begins by focusing attention on Gore's statement earlier this year that his mother-in-law pays three times as much as his dog for the same arthritis medicine. The Globe reported in September that the numbers cited by Gore came from a flawed Democratic study. Subsequently, Gore's aides refused to disclose the actual cost his family pays.
''Now Al Gore is bending the truth again,'' the Bush ad says. ''The press calls Gore's Social Security attacks `nonsense.' Governor Bush sets aside $2.4 trillion to strengthen Social Security and pay all benefits.''
The ad then shows Gore saying: ''There has never been a time when I have said something in this campaign that I know to be untrue. There has never been a time when I have said something untrue.''
An announcer then says: ''Really?''
Gore spokesman Chris Lehane attacked the ad.
''I think what that reflects is the fact that they are seeing serious slippage in their (poll) numbers,'' Lehane said. ''The governor promised time and time again not to engage in those types of political ads. Clearly he would not have breached that promise to the American people unless they were concerned about this election. People don't like negative ads, and so it's a very, very calculated decision.''
But Gore, too, is running an ad that could be termed an attack. The advertisement says that eight Nobel laureates have concluded that Bush's Social Security plan doesn't add up.
Lehane, asked about Gore's advertisements, insisted they weren't in the same league as the Bush ads.
''We've raised questions about his experience in the context of a serious debate about the proposals he's made in the last couple of weeks,'' Lehane said.
Kranish reported from Pennsylvania, Abraham reported from Wisconsin. Glen Johnson and Curtis Wilkie of the Globe Staff, traveling with Gore, contributed to this report.
