efore the New Hampshire primary, former US senator Bill Bradley was being portrayed in the media as a serious threat to front-runner Vice President Al Gore's bid to be the Democratic nominee.
At that same time, Arizona Senator John McCain was not taken as a serious threat to front-runner Texas Governor George Bush's bid to become the GOP nominee.
Today, the political fortunes of both men appear to have been reversed.
As recent polls have shown, Gore has been pulling away from Bradley faster than a rabbit outrunning a hound. And McCain has become a nightmare for Bush.
Another notable change: Gore is no longer routinely referred to as ''stiff'' or ''wooden.'' As he widens his lead over Bradley, he does appear to be looser and more confident. But it may also be that the now-vulnerable Bush has become the preferred target of unflattering descriptions.
In politics, however, the more things change, the more they stay the same.
As challenged and battered as Gore has been, he is still seen as his party's most likely nominee. And while that is somewhat less certain for Bush, it may also be true. Although his front-runner status is under serious attack from McCain, after the March 7 Super Tuesday primaries he could virtually have the nomination well in hand.
For example, McCain conceivably could emerge from the March 7 California contest (an open primary) with the most votes. But Bush could end up with the delegates, since only Republican votes will be counted to determine who wins the 162 that are up for grabs there. Bush in recent primaries has done far better than McCain among Republican voters.
However, if McCain in coming weeks is able to win a few key primaries and thus win over the GOP establishment, Bush won't be able to count on California Republicans to back him.
It is conceivable, based on recent polls, that McCain could win the GOP primary in Massachusetts and a few other states. But if Bush continues to show that he has strong Republican backing in the March 7 and March 14 primaries, he is still likely to be nominated by the GOP establishment. And Bush is still expected to do well in the gathering of delegates in California and key Southern states such as Georgia, Missouri, and Maryland.
The GOP establishment is expected to wield strong influence at the Republican National Convention, and if it still wants Bush, it will have him as the nominee. The only way McCain could change that picture is to alter the political landscape during the primaries.
If Bush does not have the necessary 1,034 of 2,066 delegates needed to win the GOP nomination by the end of March 14, the GOP convention in July will likely be a tumultuous event.
For Bush to win most of the Republican-only primaries on March 7 and 14, he may have to move further to the right than he would like. That could come back to haunt him in the fall by giving Gore ammunition to paint him as a right-winger.
If Gore continues to stay well ahead of Bradley after the March 7 14 primaries, and if core Republicans are able to fend off McCain's challenge during those two fateful weeks, the outcome of this primary season will be as many political forecasters predicted early on.
The political lightning that has energized the McCain campaign appears to be the only force that can change that forecast. But Bush's supporters are trying to hold up as many political lightning rods as possible to protect their candidate from the electrified McCain campaign.
But the bitter GOP battle between the two candidates could leave Bush so battered and bruised that it would hinder him in the November final election against a much less-bruised Gore.
McCain at this stage of the campaign would be a far tougher opponent for Gore than Bush. Gore and Bush are in a statistical dead heat in the polls, while McCain would beat Gore by more than 20 points.
Bush supporters are hoping that the McCain surge ebbs as quickly as it arrived. If Gore and Bush come through their political storms as winners on March 7 and 14, the convention forecast will still be a bright sunny week for Gore in Los Angeles and a refreshing breeze for Bush in Philadelphia.
Robert A. Jordan is a Globe columnist.
