he Republican Party bosses will now try to raze McCain.
The Arizonan will get fragged by his own kind. But it's hard to cap a movement that gushes votes and now contributions like a lucky wildcatter's blown-out oil well. And the Democrats have their own internecine bloodletting. We have parallel wars.
To shake-up-the-system voters, investing in Bill Bradley is like buying bonds; there's not much upside, but not much downside either, a low-risk bet that probably won't go anywhere.
But investing in John McCain's crusade? That's like buying into one of those Internet IPOs, a rocket-ride on the NASDAQ that could go up 70 points, but could also crash and burn.
Both got over New Hampshire's daunting first hurdle. McCain's sensational 18-percent butt-kicking of Texas Governor George W. Bush triggered more than $741,000 in contributions to the Web site McCain2000.com in just 41 hours. Bradley's coming within 4 points in New Hampshire dooms Al Gore to a bitter month of broken-bottle combat. The Democrats' contest went really sour in the last week, when Bradley, facing a 12-point poll deficit, went low road.
By calling Gore a liar and a corrupt devotee of crooked fund-raising who does not tell the truth and cannot be elected in the fall, Bradley took the fatal plunge. In doing so he cast his cause as one of virtue versus vice and energized followers bewildered by the laconic Bradley's passivity in debate and clueless 2-1 whipping in Iowa.
But going postal over Gore's alleged corruption and lying has poisoned the well of Democratic primary politics. Escalating his personal feud with Gore means Bradley is also endangering the Democrats' chances of not only holding the White House, but taking control of the other House, where a gain of six seats ends Republican control. Democratic office-holders fear they'll be on a ticket topped by Gore, who will be bloodied by Bradley. A top Bush adviser said: ''Bradley's one of those guys thinking he's out there playing all by himself, where there are no rules. He has no real ties anymore to the Democratic establishment. That's why it'll be hard for them to reel him back in.''
Bradley is Paul Tsongas with a hook shot, bright, quirky, aloof. He's also known in party circles as a one-way street. Better on TV than in crowds, he has to guard against appearing intellectually superior and overcome doubts about heart arrhythmia and leadership claims. What did he ever do in the Senate? Ted Kennedy hammered a ton of ideas into law. Where was Bradley? Gore will fare better among labor and black voters in the industrial states. But Bradley appeals to upscale types and young voters turned off by Gore's plodding style or ties to Clinton.
Contesting McCain for the outsider vote, Bradley's style is more cerebral and less passionate than McCain's lapel-shaking approach. Bush must wait for the McCain phenonenon to run its course. The GOP contest never descended into the level of invective that clouded the Democrats' climax. Bush and McCain treat each other with carefully calibrated civility. ''John's my buddy,'' chirps Bush frequently. Nor does McCain denigrate Bush as Bradley does Gore. Bush's concession speech was all you could ask for: graceful, gentlemanly, and free of personal rancor. Bush lost well; that reassured some GOP doubters.
The Texas governor has a daunting advantage still. He raised more money coming into January than McCain, Gore, and Bradley combined. The GOP establishment is shaken, but not yet panicky. If Bush comes back in the South and West, the nomination is his, even though the inevitability rationale lies dead in a snow-covered New Hampshire ditch.
The trashing of McCain will undoubtedly come from surrogates, not from Bush's own often-pursed lips. McCain's crusade is anathema to the shadowy forces of lobbyists and corporate string-pullers whose largesse finances GOP control of both House and Senate. These penthouse-dwellers atop the pyramid of special interests risk losing their leverage if McCain's mission succeeds. While the GOP does not have the same super-delegate system, which gives Gore a head start of almost 25 percent of the 2,100-plus convention delebates needed, Bush is backed by most GOP governors, senators, and congressmen, as well as the mob that has invested $70-plus million in him to date.
So, while the overwhelming favorites are still Gore and Bush, each party faces a bloodletting. Democratic high-ups scheme how best to crowbar Bradley out of the race, but despair for the present. He has money enough to contest the March 7 round of 14 Democratic contests. Nor will McCain go quietly.
The GOP establishment plots how to derail him without making a martyr of him. You've got to be careful how you trash a popular war hero and ex-POW, when the people love his cause, his solemn vow to purge the sludge from D.C.'s cement-mixer.
''Wrong-way McCain,'' screams an opening shot from the cover of National Review, bible of the conservative bunker-dwellers. This swipe at McCain's conservative credentials and qualifications is merely a range-finding salvo. My guess is that the real villains of the ambush looming for McCain will be the shadowy special-interest groups that fear his pledge to abolish soft money will strip them of their favorite weapon - last-minute attack ads that savage opponents of gun control or advocates of choice on abortion. The lobbyists for guns and abortion bans have already targeted McCain, and the Big Tobacco boys will not be far behind.
David Nyhan is a Globe columnist.
