residential campaigns are won in the fall, but lost in the summer. The malaise that has overtaken Vice President Al Gore's effort since he clinched the Democrats' nomination three months ago has enabled George W. Bush to plow ahead in the elemental categories of money, momentum, and morale.
The resignation of Tony Coelho as chairman of the Nashville-based Gore effort makes room for the Democratic Party's best organization man, Bill Daley of Chicago. As US Secretary of Commerce, Daley has masterminded some of the Clinton administration's most successful congressional battles over foreign trade.
In a number of important ways, he may be the closest thing the Democrats have to Jim Baker, the lanky Texas operative who served in the Bush and Reagan presidencies. Baker showed how much could be accomplished by a shrewd, tough player with extensive political and business contacts, so long as he was willing to play second banana to the boss.
Jesuit-educated and bearing the DNA of America's second-most famous Democratic family, the ascension of ''Billy'' to the manager's portfolio is a welcome development to Democratic candidates arrayed on the ticket behind Gore. He elected his brother Rich to the mayor's job in Chicago, he helped Clinton first in Illinois, then in Washington, then in the business community, and now in the Clinton drive to deny the White House to Bush the Younger.
Coelho cited health problems in resigning, which are undeniable. ''Tony's sick,'' said a Democratic insider. But so is Gore's campaign. There are undeniable problems in the operation, which has not been as smooth-running as the hierarchal and tightly-buttoned Bush campaign structure. As the insurgency campaign of Senator John McCain proved, the candidate is always more important than the campaign. But in Gore's case, the candidate's weaknesses require complementary support from the organization.
The Gore effort ran into a slough of despond after he dispatched Bill Bradley in the early round of primaries. After turning back the former New Jersey senator by a bare 4 percent in New Hampshire, thanks to a furious finish, with Bostonian Michael Whouley applying the whip, Gore cruised. And then snoozed. He ran out of money and energy and ideas, it seemed, while Bush did a better job of wiggling his way out of Hurricane McCain.
To Democrats still unconvinced that Gore has the talent to replicate the twin Clinton triumphs, the Gore effort this summer reminded them of nothing so much as the Dukakis campaign of 1988. On the first day of the GOP convention in '88, Michael Dukakis was 16 points ahead of Bush, a foundering No. 2 man around whom vast doubts had coalesced within his own party.
But a leisurely summer, a lackadaisical campaign structure, and confusion in his advertising message and campaign themes frittered away Dukakis's early lead. Without the ferocity and rapaciousness necessary to counter Bush's negative strategy, led by the late Lee Atwater, Dukakis lost by 40 states to 10. Bill Daley was around for that experience, and has not forgotten it.
Despite the fact that George W. Bush is much the more pro-business candidate, as most Republicans are, Daley has good relations with business lobbyists. Despite the fact that Daley defeated the unions over GATT, NAFTA, and permanent status for China in the World Trade Organization, Daley has excellent and longstanding ties to Big Labor. Gore lucked out by obtaining the services of a politico who understands you win by addition, not by subtraction.
From his father, the prototypical big city mayor of the machine era, Daley learned what you can and can no longer do in ward politics. From running his brother's campaigns, he learned the significance of the Democats' essential ethnic coalitions and how to bridge gaps between various tribes and clans. After Rich Daley lost his maiden mayoral race in Chicago in 1983, Bill crafted the comeback that has kept his brother in City Hall ever since.
As a lawyer, a banker, then a top-level federal bureaucrat, Bill, the youngest of five siblings, honed his style and kept raising his game to higher levels. At 51, he's poised to become the man to see if Gore wins. Presidents develop an understandable fondness for the associate who installs them in the Oval Office. It is not much of a stretch to envision Daley as a chief of staff, or on a higher cabinet rung than Commerce. But a huge task intervenes: bringing Gore from behind.
Chuck Campion, a Boston Democratic consultant who's known Daley for two decades, said Friday, ''He's the right guy for the job. He's a guy who likes to win. He has the campaign experience, as well as the policy background. Bill is not a Washington insider. His feet are still firmly planted in Chicago. He never lost touch with what working families face today.''
Daley's appointment will reassure Democratic captains and colonels who did not warm to Coelho's California style. Coming out of the Chicago school, Daley understands that politics is not patty-cake. His immediate tasks are to realign the campaign, sort out a running mate, manage a convention that could get fractious and rowdy, and install competent coordinators in the key states of Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Michigan, and Illinois. Gore may need three of those five to win. He is still the horse who must run the race. But in Billy Daley, he's now under the best jockey the Democrats have.
David Nyhan is a Globe columnist.
