TOCKTON, Calif. - Resolving a protracted game of political chicken, Senator John McCain said yesterday he would participate after all, by satellite, in a debate tomorrow with Texas Governor George W. Bush and Alan Keyes.
After his three defeats last night in Washington state, Virginia and North Dakota, he will need the exposure more than ever in the Golden State.
For several days, aides for McCain and Bush had been firing shots at one another over McCain's decision to skip the debate sponsored by the Los Angeles Times and CNN. McCain said he was under the impression Bush had declined to participate, so he had scheduled other events in New York. Aides to Bush said McCain was simply trying to avoid a debate in California. McCain scoffed at that suggestion, and back and forth it went.
The sniping, and McCain's reversal, underlined the importance of this state to both Republican candidates. California, which delivers 162 delegates to the victor, holds its primary on Tuesday, along with New York, Ohio and 10 other states.
California would appear to be fertile ground for McCain, who has positioned himself as the more moderate candidate in the field, and attracted independents and Democrats to the polls in other states. But so did Washington state, and he did not succeed there, though he expected to.
In yesterday's primaries, McCain seemed to have harmed himself on two fronts: his stinging speech Monday against Christian Coalition chief Pat Robertson for leading the GOP astray appeared to have alienated voters in Virginia, Robertson's home state. But it did not appear to have endeared him to more moderate Republican voters.
He and his aides clearly have high hopes for California, where he trailed Bush by 20 points in a recent Field poll and is now more critical than ever. ''It's a hard hill to climb,'' said McCain's California strategist, Ken Khachigian. ''But time is on our side. Though the clock is running.''
He said McCain would spend 60 percent of the next week in California, and a day and a half in New York. A recent Zogby poll in New York shows McCain leading Bush by a few points.
Asked whether his bid for the Republican nomination would be over if he lost California, McCain reluctantly conceded it might. ''It's so unpredictable, it depends on the scenario,'' he said aboard his bus yesterday. ''Again, maybe a little bit of a return to Straight Talk Express. Let's not kid anybody, it's very important and to understate that is just not a recognition of reality.''
The McCain campaign was far more bullish on California a couple of weeks ago. But yesterday, after the poll numbers appeared to put McCain far behind, media strategist Mike Murphy played down the importance of a victory.
Murphy, speaking before last night's results were in, said California might not be absolutely vital, especially if McCain sweeps New England, wins the New York primary, and returns to ''fertile ground'' in the North and the West.
But to avoid that extra high-stakes scenario, McCain is pushing in California something that might resonate more strongly: his chances of success in a general election against the vice president.
''My message to California Republicans is simple,'' he said after a town hall meeting in Stockton yesterday. ''If you want to win back the presidency, and make our ticket strong, listen to people who have supported me in other states. I seek not just to redeem our integrity and pride, but to rebuild our party's strength. I want California Republicans to know that we will at last start winning again.''
If he fails to win the delegates in California, however, McCain may have another chance.
Under new rules, all the candidates will be on the California ballot this year, and all registered voters will be able to vote for candidates from either party. But only votes from registered Republicans will count toward the selection of the GOP winner, who takes all the state's delegates.
So, even if independents vote for McCain, as they did in New Hampshire, their votes will not count toward the nomination. It is possible McCain could win the popularity contest in this state, but lose the delegates.
Winning the beauty contest would be ''like kissing your sister,'' said Khachigian a few weeks ago.
But these days, McCain and his aides are giving the beauty contest a second look: If the senator wins the blanket primary and not the delegates, they said, perhaps that would give the Republican Party enough pause to change the rules and look seriously at McCain as the nominee despite the Republican tally.
''If I won the popular vote and Bush won the Republican vote, then within the Republican Party there would have to be a discussion: Do you want somebody who just wins Republican votes, or all of the votes?'' Khachigian said.
McCain and his aides repeatedly said yesterday that all this speculation is premature. That is doubly true after last night.
In California, McCain's views on social issues such as abortion have been questioned as much as they were in South Carolina, where he lost to Bush. But in the Golden State, the questions come from the other end of the political spectrum.
On his bus between Stockton and Fresno yesterday, McCain was asked by reporters about his attitude toward abortion, legal rights for gay and lesbian couples, and his views on whether gays should be able to adopt children.
He took a firm conservative line on all issues.
''I believe marriage should be simply those between heterosexual couples as far as legal recognition. What they want to do with their private lives is obviously not my affair and not my business.''
Asked whether he thought homosexuality is a sin, he said, ''I leave that judgment up to theologians.''
